Rebuilding a Dynasty Team: Thoughts and Strategies
A DLF reader recently came to me asking to put together an article focused on how to rebuild a dynasty team. At first, I thought “yeah, I can do that, an article on my rebuilding strategies,” but then I thought, rather than me rambling on about my own strategies, I thought this was a good opportunity to get the input of a few writers on the DLF team. Much like building a dynasty team, there are a number of ways to go about rebuilding a dynasty team. Almost anyone who plays dynasty has gone through a rebuild, whether it is an orphan takeover, a startup gone wrong, or a series of bad trades that take you from contender to pretender. Let’s dive right into the rebuilding strategies of a few writers from the DLF team.
Adam Tzikas
My philosophy when it comes to rebuild is very simple. If you aren’t a top team, blow it up right now. Nothing is worse than coming in fifth every year and never getting a top draft pick. The longer you wait, the quicker your assets will lose value. Any player under 26 has got to go, even if you are forced to sell below market value. Sometimes it’s better to wait until mid-season for strong producers, but if there is any speculation (looking at you 2015 Andre Johnson) those players have to get off your team before the bottom drops out. Your new goal in this league is to get the first pick in the rookie draft, doing whatever you need to do (within the rules of course) to make that happen. Once you have that (along with other picks and young players), I will almost exclusively draft wide receivers during that first rookie draft when you decide to rebuild. Wide receivers last longer and you can expect them to generally gain value as time goes on. I like to wait until my rebuild is complete to grab running backs, you can always add veteran running backs on the cheap when it’s time to start competing. In a complete rebuild, I tend to target three years out as the season where you start to compete in. My number one rule is patience. This can be a long process, but after doing a lot of rebuilding (especially in competitive leagues), those are always my favorite teams.
Bruce Matson
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I love taking over teams due for a rebuild – it gives me the opportunity to a tear down the team and build it the way I want it. I like to make an assessment of what kind of overhaul my team needs to determine whether I need to blow it up and do a total rebuild or make some quick adjustments on the fly. I’m a dynasty rebuild masochist and I love blowing up teams and building them from scratch, though.
The first thing I do when it’s time to pull the trigger and blow the team to smithereens is deal all the depreciating assets on my team. My team turns into a “buy here, pay here” business and I’m putting on the cheesiest suit and tie I have in my closet so I can look my best when I’m dealing away all my old, injured and scheme dependent players. It’s fine to take a little bit of a hit on trade value, because by the time my team is built those players are more than likely not going to be relevant. Forget about scoring fantasy points right now – we are building a team from scratch and it’s going to be a long process. Depending how bad the team is, I might be looking to deal my best asset like a Mike Evans or an Odell Beckham, Jr. for multiple high-end pieces, like first round picks and up-and- coming prospects, so I can have more chances to hit on different positions to build my team.
All draft picks matter when it comes to rebuilding because I want as many shots at the rookie draft piñata as possible. The ultimate goal is to successfully turn and burn by immediately cashing out and trading away the players I drafted in the mid-late rounds of my rookie drafts to try and get another crack at another premium prospect. I’m always actively trading while valuing each individual player as a share in the stock market and I’m willing to cash out when I feel the player has reached maximum value. I continue this process until the team is built the way I want it.
Austan Kas
Rebuilding can be extremely tough, especially if you’re in a very competitive league, but in some weird way, I’ve always found it refreshing and fun. I think a lot of us are probably wired that way. For me, rebuilding comes down to two words — relentless and value. First, you have to be willing to roll up your sleeves and work for multiple seasons – there is no quick fix. Secondly, it’s imperative to capitalize on value as often as possible. We could even tie those together in a tidy little sentence: when rebuilding, you need to relentlessly seek value.
If you’re in a position where you have a terrible team (and you probably are if you’re rebuilding), take a look at your roster and ask yourself, “Who on my team would be most attractive to other owners?” Deal those players (even if they are clearly your best players) to acquire a mix of valuable picks and young players. If you’re truly rebuilding, there is no difference between finishing eighth and last in your league, and depending on how your league is set up, it may benefit you more to finish last. Anyway, ideally, you can fill multiple holes on your roster by dealing those players while stockpiling picks, and usually, you can find win-now owners who will give you above market value for those players.
Pursue any player whose value you think will rise in the future. Even if you don’t like them, you can flip him for a profit once his value rises. We should be value-hungry robots and tireless in our pursuit of undervalued players. It’s an easy way to acquire top-notch assets for cheap. Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls and Devonta Freeman (all three in the top 40 of our staff composite rankings) could be had for a bargain 12 months ago. Yes, it’s hard to foresee huge breakouts like that, but (if you read this site and) acquire enough lottery tickets, you’re bound to hit on a couple. Those three are dreamy scenarios, but players like Kenny Bell, Ryan Mathews and Jerick McKinnon are a few examples of relatively cheap players whose value could jump in the next 12 months. Even it they don’t leap into the top 50 overall, they could still be very valuable. If you give up a 2016 third-round pick to get McKinnon and ship him off in November for a 2017 second-round pick, that’s turning a nickel into a dime, and in a rebuild, even every penny helps.
Leo Paciga
Advice I would give to someone attempting their first rebuild……
When? Whenever you realize your roster is stuck at the intersection of aging and mediocrity.
First Question – Are you a few players away from injecting some life into your roster or does it require a complete roster overhaul?
Evaluation – Identify the players who make up your foundation and should play a major role in your success 2-to-3 years from now. Any player not making that list is a bargaining chip. Even
players on that list can be traded away for the right price.
Leaguemates – Identify owners who are comfortable trading draft picks for established players and/or owners who consistently get “draft fever” and are willing to overpay for draft picks.
Tracking – Track the tendencies (draft picks, trades, etc.) of your fellow owners. I keep a notebook even if I’m not rebuilding.
Top the Deal – Always, always, always try to get a late round draft pick thrown into a deal. Stockpiling those picks creates opportunity whether you use them or trade them.
Pay It Forward – Remember future picks can often be acquired at a cheaper price than current picks.
Capitalize Quickly – Make sure you’re following off-season contract squabbles, injury updates and training camp news, all of which could create a window of opportunity to sell high or buy low.
Frenetic Patience – You can’t manage your way through a roster rebuild without making a lot of trades and that means making a lot of offers. I tend to track my activity level while rebuilding both internally and externally. Internal success is measured with each completed deal while external success is measured by the amount of offers discussed. Simultaneously, you need to have a level of “big picture” patience. Yes, you have to be active in the day-to-day management of your team, but you also have to understand the entire rebuilding process generally takes time. Rebuilding a roster is similar to turning around an old sailing vessel, an entire crew running around frantically on deck trying to do all the little things necessary to change direction, yet the ship itself turns ever so slowly.
Talent Wins – Mediocre talent in a great situation = sell it, don’t buy it. Don’t get sucked into the “meh-mire.”
Diminished Value – This can be difficult for some owners to embrace. Nobody is going to give you a first round pick for your 35-year old running back even if you think he’s worth it. Shop for the best deal, but ultimately, be decisive in moving that aging veteran while you still can.
Study College Players – Or at least engage with people who do. Being familiar with each draft class will help determine the value of your current picks – if you should trade up, trade down or
even trade out of a round.
Final Thought – Take advantage of social media. Twitter is great for questions, insights and interacting with a solid fantasy football community.
Nathan Powell
Saving the best for last (not really), I look at my rebuilds as a step-by-step process. I take a hard look at my team since making the decision to rebuild and the extent of just how to rebuild can be a tough decision. In dynasty fantasy football, my goal every season is to finish as a top two seed in the regular season. Some say the fantasy playoffs are so random, just get to be one of the six teams in and you have a shot. I do think that is a bit of a fallacy and while the sixth seed may win a championship once in a blue moon, it is much more frequent that one of the top 2 seeds that get the bye week are the ones winning the championship, not only because they were the best teams all season, but also because they had one fewer week where they could have lost due to the randomness of a bad week by normally consistent players. So, if I’m not in position to be a contender for a top two seed and I can’t make acquisitions to put myself in that position, I begin to look toward the following season and I make intermittent moves toward being a top two seed.
In the occasions where a top two seed doesn’t look to be a possibility anytime soon, that’s when a full rebuild is in order. I sell off depreciating assets as quickly as possible. Depreciating assets don’t necessarily have to be older players. There are older players like Jordy Nelson and Brandon Marshall who will likely gain value between now and mid-season, and there are also young players who are depreciating assets. For example, Thomas Rawls was a depreciating asset prior to the NFL Draft, between his status as an undrafted free agent, added with his deficiencies in the passing game, it was a near certainty that the Seahawks would be adding a running back in the draft, and they added two. Once the season starts, the waiver wire is a rebuilder’s best friend. Players like Gary Barnidge or Kamar Aiken may hurt your initial battle of losing as many games as possible, but with bye weeks and injuries, contending teams will come calling and will give up future assets to fill those holes in their contending lineup.
When the calendar turns to the off-season, the role of the rebuilder centers around rookie picks. Identifying target players and where you will likely need to have picks to acquire those rookies will be the key to your rebuild. The off-season is also a great time to begin to acquire picks in the following year – this is a strategy that has gotten a bit out of hand during the 2016 offseason with the current value of 2017 rookie picks, but I believe future rookie picks will likely return to normal value in the 2017 off-season In short, we may see the biggest case of rookie fever yet in 2017. Nearly all long-term premium assets were first round rookie picks the year they were drafted, yet every year second and third round rookies from the previous year gain value and get overvalued in the following off-season – this is when I either sell those players for current/future first round selections, or even combine two or three of them for a current or future first. It may be a risk to sell off second year players who showed promise in their rookie season for unproven picks, but more often than not, the player you will be getting with the first round rookie pick is much more likely to be fantasy viable and have dynasty value once your rebuild is complete.
For me, the last step in a rebuild is deciding when a rebuild is complete. For me, the rebuild is unsurprisingly done when I think I will be a top two seed in the playoffs that year. When a rebuild is executed successfully, your team should look like a contender for a top two seed over the next 3-5 years, if not longer. The key to not going back to a place where you will need to rebuild again is to continue many of the things you did as a rebuilder, but one of the main differences is those waiver players you were churning for future assets are now used as team depth to protect against injuries, bye weeks and general underperformance.
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