One Man’s 2016 Draft Strategy
If you’re like me, every year while making your selections in rookie drafts, you probably end up with the same players on multiple rosters. It doesn’t seem to matter whether I’m coming off a league championship and have the last pick in each round or if I have a top-five pick because I’m in the middle of a rebuild, my attention always goes to the same names when looking at the list of available rookies.
Here are rookies that have my attention this year at each stage in the draft – as well as what I look for while drafting.
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Early First Round
If you’re holding a top-five pick in any rookie draft, you should be looking for an impact player. The names on top of most owners’ draft boards seem to be quite consistent this year. After Ezekiel Elliott – who stands alone in his own tier as the premiere impact fantasy player – Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman and Laquon Treadwell consistently round out the top four. After that, Sterling Shepard is widely considered the fifth-best option in rookie drafts.
Personally, I’m comfortable holding any of the top-five picks in rookie drafts. Although I feel like after Elliott, the order should be Treadwell, Coleman, and Doctson, followed by Shepard, I can’t argue too much with somebody who values them in a different order. In my opinion all four wide receivers have at least top 20 WR upside and that’s exactly what I’m looking for out of a top-five rookie draft pick.
Finally, if you’re holding the top pick in rookie drafts and aren’t as smitten with Elliott as nearly everybody else, don’t take the receiver you covet with that pick. Trade back, get your guy, and get a 2017 first rounder (and perhaps more.) There’s nothing wrong with liking a player more than the consensus number one pick. There is something wrong with not taking advantage of being in such a unique situation.
Mid-First Round
The middle of the first round is never a great place to be. Unless you traded for the selection, it means your team is a middle-of-the-pack team, most likely with an average roster. The fact that the first round of this year’s rookie draft is relatively shallow doesn’t help teams in this position.
After the top five prospects, things get pretty dicey. In fact, I really dislike the sixth pick in rookie drafts. According to the most recent DLF Rookie ADP data, Michael Thomas, Kenneth Dixon, Derrick Henry and Will Fuller are the top options for those holding the 1.06.
I don’t happen to be all that high on any of those options, however.
Unless one of my top five slip to me at number six (or even seven,) I’m doing what I can to trade back to pick up more selections in either this draft or the 2017 draft. If I have to make a pick at 1.06, I’m reluctantly taking Tyler Boyd – who I like but would most likely still be available a few picks later.
Late-First Round
The late-first round really isn’t a bad place to be selecting. Honestly, it seems to me that the top options late in round one have at least the same upside as those that went between picks six and nine.
Boyd currently has an ADP of 10 in rookie drafts which is far too low for a guy sure to be getting single coverage across from A.J. Green in Cincinnati. Considering I’d be willing to snag him as highly as sixth overall, you can safely assume he’s my favorite pick in the latter parts of round one and will be on many of my rosters.
In the event that Boyd is off the board however, there’s another strong option. C.J Prosise landed in an ideal situation in Seattle and has three-down upside as a slashing runner with good elusiveness and excellent hands which when combined with playing in a run-first offense on a team with little experience atop the depth chart at the position, gives him the potential to be a steal at the end of round one.
For the record, I also very much like the two quarterbacks, Jared Goff and especially Carson Wentz, late in the first round of 2QB and super-flex leagues.
Early-Round Two
Typically in round two, I’m looking for players who have either seen their ADP plummet due to what is perceived to be a poor landing spot or guys that fell in the NFL draft, which scares some fantasy players. That doesn’t frighten me though and fortunately, there are a couple guys that absolutely fit that profile in this year’s crop of rookies.
No matter where I’m picking in the second round, the player I have my eye on in Round Two of rookie drafts is Pharoh Cooper. While I completely understand that his metrics aren’t the strongest and that he doesn’t look very impressive in shorts, I can’t forget about the dynamic playmaker out of the slot that I saw on film while at South Carolina. He’s shifty, a great route runner, and is a ferocious competitor with the ball in the air. With the potential to be Goff’s security blanket out of the slot, I like him as the ultimate PPR value in rookie drafts this year.
After Cooper, Devontae Booker is another player that jumps off the page as a potential bargain. Just like Prosise, he has three-down potential and landed on a team that loves to run the ball. Although he has to share the backfield with C.J. Anderson, the Broncos have been known to give carries to multiple backs and Booker is a downhill runner that fits perfectly into Gary Kubiak’s offense and has the chops to carry the load if needed.
Late-Second Round
The middle of the second round of rookie drafts is full of players that don’t really get me excited. Guys like Malcolm Mitchell, Braxton Miller, Jordan Howard and Mike Thomas won’t be on any of my teams. Instead, I’ll be focusing one name: Kenyan Drake.
Despite being the third running back taken in the NFL draft as well as landing in a place where the starter (Jay Ajayi) hasn’t proven anything, Drake is being overlooked by many. As a shifty runner with impressive burst and excellent pass catcher, he can do more with less.
My fellow DLF scribe, Jeff Miller, has equated Drake’s potential role in Miami to that of Giovanni Bernard in Cincinnati and I think that’s dead on. He has more upside than many of the players being selected nearly a full round ahead of him – particularly in PPR leagues – and will be on many of my rosters this year.
Third Round
In the third round, I like to take shots on players with elite measurables, but haven’t quite put it all together just yet. This year, that player is Charone Peake, who currently has an ADP of 33.
Peake stands 6-foot-2 and weighs 209 pounds. He ran a 4.45 40-time at the combine, blazed a 4.37 at his pro-day, and has shown massive upside in spurts throughout his time at Clemson – where he was buried behind the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant and Mike Williams on the depth chart. He’s shown eyebrow raising route running, a solid ability to make a play on jump balls and the deep speed to make an impact at the next level.
An elite prospect coming out of high school, Peake simply hasn’t put it all together yet but is the ideal lottery ticket in the third round of rookie drafts and will likely be on many of my teams as a late-round flyer.
Other names that have my attention in round three of rookie drafts include Titans wide out Tajae Sharpe (ADP: 27), Panthers undrafted receiver Keyarris Garrett (ADP: 29), and the number two pick in the NFL draft, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (ADP: 30.)
In leagues with deep rosters and deep rookie drafts, another worthy dart throw I’ll be willing to take a shot on late is Rams undrafted wide out Marquez North (ADP: 42) – who has the size (6-foot-2, 223 pounds) and speed (4.48 40-time) as well as a lot of untapped potential.
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