Post-Draft Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three
The biggest weekend of the off-season is behind us, and we now know the second major piece of the value puzzle – the situations. The first major piece is, of course, talent. Now we can clear up an awful lot of the “what ifs” and speculation about what systems all these prospects will be playing in, what kind of opportunity the rookies will have and a little bit about how NFL teams viewed their potential. In my opinion, people tend to under rate that very last one – NFL teams spend millions of dollars scouting players and they have decades of experience doing it. If a player isn’t drafted until the fourth round, that means teams had over 100 opportunities to draft that player and decided there was someone they liked better. That should tell us something. I’m not saying they are perfect, but if a player the fantasy community really liked slides far in the draft, there is likely a reason. Enough of that tangent, let’s get back to the main focus and cover what the draft did to player values!
In order to help give you an idea of what all of this has done, I’m back with 11 other writers to bring you another mock draft. This is not meant to be a rookie ADP (Scott Fish and others have that covered for you) but rather a more detailed look at how our knowledgeable writers view each and every one of the picks. This way you get our thoughts and opinions on what the draft actually did to player value. Keep in mind, we all have our favorites who we like more than most, so there will be some disagreement on where a player should have gone, but that is part of the fun!
If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time-to-time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong.
The first two rounds of our mock have already been published. Be certain to check out round one and round two. Now it is time for a look at everyone’s favorite fliers in round three.
3.01 – Kenyan Drake, RB MIA
Jeff’s thoughts: Unlike my second round dilemma, I had a really easy time with this pick. While I don’t think Drake is a likely to ever become a true every down back, I do love his opportunity to fill at least some of the Matt Forte role for Adam Gase in Miami. With his explosiveness, that could be a recipe for Giovani Bernard-esque production.
The franchise clearly doesn’t fully trust incumbent Jay Ajayi, which only helps Drake’s outlook. That he was taken early in the third doesn’t hurt his chances of seeing meaningful time, either. Color me pleased with how this worked out for Drake’s dynasty value.
My thoughts: Pre-draft I had Drake pegged as a late third round pick in rookie drafts. Now I think you are going to see him as a fairly regular pick in the second round. Much like Jeff, I think his skill set isn’t that of a workhorse, but Miami spent an early third on him and made him the third running back selected in the draft. They wouldn’t have done that if they didn’t have big plans for him. I don’t really know how they plan on splitting the load, but Drake was taken higher than Ajayi was the year before. I think he’s going to have a pretty big role.
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3.02 – Charone Peake, WR NYJ
Austan’s thoughts: I’m a sucker for high-upside wideouts, especially at this point of the draft. Since I got two of my top five receivers (Laquon Treadwell and Leonte Carroo) with my first two picks, I felt like I could gamble on Peake here. I have him as my 12th-ranked wideout in the class, and I’m all googly-eyed over his size (6-foot-2, 209 pounds) and speed (4.45). A former top recruit, injuries and a loaded Clemson depth chart kept him from doing much in college, but the talent is still there. If you watch a handful of his best plays, you’ll swear you’re watching the truth. He’s sharp in his routes, explosive and physical. However, he’s inconsistent and has yet to put up numbers which line up with his talent. I believe he has the ceiling of a WR1. Will he get there? Probably not. But I’m willing to roll the dice in the third round.
My thoughts: One of the more interesting picks in this round of the draft, Peake certainly has some potential. There’s also a lot of risk. The NFL drafts of old are littered with wide receivers who had a lot of talent but just couldn’t put it all together at the next level. The lack of college production as well as the injury list are both major concerns. I’m also not in love with the landing spot. Yes, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are both getting a little bit older (especially Marshall) but aside from last year, the Jets haven’t been able to pass the ball. Their quarterback situation is in flux as well, so you’re going to need to be very patient with Peake if you draft him.
3.03 – Chris Moore, WR BAL
Nick’s thoughts: Some may have been surprised by the selection of Moore in round four, but I immediately said “good pick” as it popped up on the television screen. Moore is the Allen Hurns mold of a receiver who plays better than his athletic profile. He averaged over 21 yards per reception last season in college and tracks the football well. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco likes to throw the deep pass. Are you seeing what I’m seeing? Oh, don’t let the old Mike Wallace or this Kamar Aiken guy get in your way. Moore has to beat out Breshad Perriman to earn a good fantasy role. Perriman missed all of last season due to injury and was already raw coming out of Central Florida. In the early third round, sign me up for a talented receiver with a good opportunity for fantasy relevance.
My thoughts: Moore is one of those picks most fantasy owners don’t like. If you listen closely, you can still hear them say, “How could he be drafted in the fourth round ahead of…” It is something you are going to hear a lot of for the next several months – this means he makes for a solid pick up late in your rookie draft. If Aiken can carve out a role for the Ravens, I’m pretty sure Moore can be relevant. Toss in the fact Ozzie Newsome has hit on a few “questionable” draft choices in the past, and I’m a little intrigued by the opportunity. I don’t think the ceiling is too high, but he could eventually be a WR3.
3.04 – Carson Wentz, QB PHI
Brian’s thoughts: In a draft limited with productive skill position players, I will take a shot in the third round on Carson Wentz. He has some developing to do and hopefully he will get that time to refine his skills behind Sam Bradford for a season. I think Wentz has a really high ceiling due to his ability to throw and run. By using this pick on Wentz, I know I am not getting consistent production for 2-3 years, but if he grows as a signal caller, he could be a top twelve quarterback in fantasy.
My thoughts: At this point in the draft, why not? My distain for taking a quarterback early in a start one quarterback league is well known. However, at a certain point in time they start to become a solid investment and have a potential to give a favorable return. I think the third round is definitely at that point. Wentz is the riskier of the two top quarterbacks this year, but he has the higher ceiling thanks to his potential rushing numbers. I think he’ll max out in the bottom of the QB1 ranks if he ever makes it that far, but that should be good enough to get you at least a second round pick in a future trade.
3.05 – Alex Collins, RB SEA
Scott’s thoughts: Collins doesn’t seem to be generating much enthusiasm in the dynasty realm. He’s not flashy. His combine was horrible (4.59 40 yard dash, 28.5 inch vertical leap, 113 inch broad jump). He’s ordinary and destined to be a back-up. That may be true, but he was incredibly productive in the SEC (3,703 yards rushing, 5.6 YPC, 36 touchdowns). He hung 151 yards on Texas A&M, 105 yards on Auburn, 141 yards on LSU and 108 yards on Mississippi. He’s a big, physical running back and could thrive in an offense that seems to like that style in Seattle. I also think Thomas Rawls is a bit overrated right now. Not bad for a rookie third round pick.
My thoughts: Much like Scott, I’m down on Rawls. His ankle injury isn’t getting nearly enough attention. Ankle fractures have derailed an awful lot of running back careers, yet people are just giving the starting role to him. I think it is very possible someone not named Rawls leads the Seahawks in rushing in 2016. Collins has a chance to be that player. He’s a no nonsense rusher who will put his head down and pick up those tough yards. I also think he is a much better player than he showed at the combine, just like Jeremy Hill a few years ago. I love Collins as a third round selection.
3.06 – Daniel Braverman, WR CHI
Izzy’s thoughts: I was hoping for Charone Peake, and I was expecting to be left with ramen noodles. Well, as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend!” Despite lacking upside, Braverman has a Jamison Crowder-like game and is slot ready in a wide open depth chart working inside Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. In most drafts, I would lean upside in this spot, but don’t sleep on Braverman as someone who can give you Flex production as early as year one, especially if White isn’t what the Bears had hoped.
My thoughts: As a Bears fan, I really hope Braverman turns out to be something great, but I don’t like the chances. Not only is he likely to be a better NFL player than a fantasy player, but I don’t think the third receiver (who is likely to be the fourth or fifth target in the passing game after tight end and running back) is a fantasy asset very often. Jay Cutler would need to have a very impressive year before Braverman would sniff most starting lineups. I hope it is the case, though! I would love for Braverman to be a top 50 receiver.
3.07 – Aaron Burbridge, WR SF
Matt’s thoughts: Burbridge isn’t a great athlete and his play on the field was inconsistent, but if he can put it all together, there is ample opportunity for targets in San Francisco. With Torrey Smith as the only proven receiving threat on the team, Burbridge has a real chance to make some noise in year one. His hands are a real issue because he is a body catcher who consistently lets the ball come to him instead of attacking it, but he is a strong and physical receiver who knows how to use his frame to prevent defenders from getting their hands on the ball.
My thoughts: I’m not a huge fan of Burbridge’s opportunity. I think San Francisco is going to be one of the worst offenses in the year this league. Plus, you are taking someone who isn’t a natural pass catcher and putting them on a team with a quarterback who is often inaccurate – that isn’t a recipe for fantasy success. With that said, there is some athletic ability here, so he could turn into something. I just feel like there is a really long way to go. Of course if there wasn’t, he wouldn’t be here in the middle of the third round.
3.08 – Demarcus Robinson, WR KC
My thoughts: There were several other players I considered at this point in the mock, including almost every player selected in the rest of the round, but I ultimately decided to swing for the fences with this pick. It is almost certainly a swing and miss, but if it hits, it is going to be huge! If you don’t know the story on Robinson, he could be one of the poster boys for wasted potential. Heavily recruited out of high school by the majority of big programs thanks to his athletic ability and bloodlines, he couldn’t stay out of his own way. Suspended by the team a total of four separate times, Robinson definitely has that knucklehead factor. Even with that, he was still taken in the fourth round of the NFL draft.
While I’m not super high on the Chiefs’ offense, I think they are improving. Adding someone who had the potential to be a top five receiver in this draft class could definitely help. Andy Reid is going to have his work cut out for him though as he tries to reign in and control young Robinson. If he can focus on football, the Chiefs could have one of the biggest draft steals of the year. However, I think it is more likely he is out of the league in a few years. There is major risk with this one, but it is the third round.
3.09 – Keyarris Garrett, WR CAR
Eric’s thoughts: I was really surprised Garrett went undrafted in the NFL draft and I was even more shocked he was available here in this draft. Going undrafted may be a blessing in disguise. He signed as an undrafted free agent with the Carolina Panthers and joins Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess as big bodied targets for Cam Newton. A lot of draftniks compared Garrett to Dez Bryant during the pre draft process, so I’ll happily roll the dice in the third round.
My thoughts: I wasn’t ever as high on Garrett as some other people, but I didn’t expect him to slip out of the draft completely. The kid definitely has some talent and he wisely chose to sign on with one of the worst receiver groups in the NFL – that means he should also have some opportunity to see the field, maybe even as soon as this year. He has some things to work on, but he is another high upside pick, which means I love it in the third round. Just don’t go reaching for someone like this any sooner.
3.10 – Keith Marshall, RB WAS
Adam’s thoughts: I was a bit surprised to get such an upside play this late in the draft. A very talented rusher who languished behind Todd Gurley, Marshall showcases his combine best 4.31 second 40 speed with great vision and an ability to sneak through the line with burst in the second level. Impacted by knee injuries all through college he has an excellent chance to make a name in Washington. I’m one of Matt Jones’ biggest detractors and he will have to beat Marshall back with a stick if he can stay healthy. This is excellent value in the late third round of a rookie draft.
My thoughts: Big, powerful and definitely talented, that’s Marshall. He’s one of the speed score leaders in this year’s draft class. Unfortunately, he also has some issues. They aren’t just limited to his knee issues during his college career but also to his instincts. I don’t know if he can feel the holes opening like he is going to need to do at the next level. If he knows where the hole is going to be pre-snap, he’s super dangerous, but that often isn’t the case in the NFL. Nonetheless, the potential to be an NFL starter is there with only the unproven Jones ahead of him.
3.11 – Austin Hooper, TE ATL
Kevin’s thoughts: Hooper just might be the tight end the Atlanta Falcons have been looking for since Tony Gonzalez retired. He was selected in the third round of the NFL draft as the 81st player overall and the second tight end taken. Tight end Jacob Tamme was signed by the Falcons in 2014 on a two year deal, which expires after the 2016 season. I expect Tamme to keep his starting role in 2016 as Hooper adjusts to the NFL game with Hooper possibility in line to replace him. He is an agile tight end, in the 80th percentile per www.playerprofiler.com. His ability as a receiver will be something the Falcons will look to put to good use. The backend of the third round in rookie drafts isn’t full of “can’t miss” prospects, but Hooper can be a solid tight end to fill in your depth with long term expectations, however immediate production may not be realistic.
My thoughts: Tight ends take a while to transition to the NFL regardless of what system they are coming out of in college. Hooper does have a bit of a head start since he was asked to block a lot in college, but that is a lot different than blocking in the NFL. He’s likely to struggle as a rookie, but he will be one of the players I’m targeting in trade offers later this year or next off-season. I think he has the potential to be a back in TE1, which is really solid value this late in the draft.
3.12 – Daniel Lasco, RB NO
Trevor’s thoughts: At the end of the draft, I wanted pure upside since there is virtually no risk involved. Keith Marshall and Austin Hooper went just ahead of this pick, otherwise I would have drafted them. Moritz Boehringer is another player I considered here. As for Lasco himself, I don’t love his landing spot with Ingram entrenched, but everyone at the top of the Saints depth chart has a lengthy history of injuries and/or performance woes. With Lasco’s athletic profile and the Saints history of actually playing RBs without a draft pedigree (Khiry Robinson, Chris Ivory), this is a shot in the dark I’m very comfortable taking.
My thoughts: Lasco seems to be climbing up everyone’s draft boards over the last few days and weeks. He is very quickly turning into one of those sleepers who isn’t a sleeper anymore. He isn’t going to beat out Mark Ingram for the starting role and there are a lot of other running backs on the Saints roster right now, including players like CJ Spiller. I think Lasco’s likelihood of seeing many touches this year is extremely low, but as Trevor said, the Saints have shown they really don’t care where you are drafted. If Ingram gets hurt, he could get some time.
That’s it for our three rounds of this mock! I’ll be back with a few more as we get into the summer months. Who are the players you are surprised didn’t make our cut?
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
