The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

  1. I am in a 12-team PPR league with four keepers.  Keepers cost the draft pick used on them the previous year, and if they are kept two consecutive years, the round actually drops by one (kept for a 5th last year, he will cost a 6th this year).  It’s weird, but it works for us. I have Rob Gronkowski for the lowest value possible (14th round) and have for a while.  The owner of the #1 pick is shopping it.  This is typically the top rookie or a productive veteran whose draft cost doesn’t justify the keep. Do you think Gronk for the prospect of this spot works?  With Brady’s suspension and Gronk’s constant threat of injury, maybe this is the time to cash in? I love owning Gronk, but it may be time to make a move.Brian in NY

I think I’d rather stand pat.  While I can’t disagree with you regarding Patriot tight end Rob Gronkowski’s injury history, it’s not as if he’s been entirely fragile.  He underwent back surgery prior to the 2013 season and missed a few games, and then tore his ACL at that season’s conclusion – but he only missed two games over the past two years, while doing typical Gronk things (1,100+ yard seasons with double digit scores) all the while.  Perhaps more importantly, the guy is somehow still only about to turn 27 years old in mid-May.

It’s true there were some other tight ends who approached Gronk’s greatness last season, most notably the Redskins’ Jordan Reed, who actually bested him in terms of PPR PPG.  Delanie Walker and Gary Barnidge, who were basically free prior to the season, also put up high-end positional numbers for a fraction of Gronk’s cost.  Tyler Eifert came out of “nowhere” (okay, he was just injured and people have short memories), and now seems poised to join the positional elite, and the only thing more consistent than Greg Olsen’s yearly greatness is the excuses that are continually be made as to why he’s set to fall off soon.

But long story short, wake me up when any of them start doing it was well as Gronk has for as long as Gronk has.  Yes, the gap was bridged in 2015, but we have no idea if that will become a trend.  After all, Reed makes Gronk look like an iron man, Walker is facing more competition for targets, Barnidge and Eifert are basically one-year wonders at this point, and for all Olsen’s greatness, he’s never been an uber-elite guy like Gronk.  When someone is that good for that long, he gets the benefit of the doubt.

So while you could get younger by making this trade, you probably won’t get better.  You’ll also be costing yourself the luxury of getting fantasy’s biggest mismatch for a late round pick, where the typical chance of finding someone with his upside is a fraction of a percent.  I understand looking towards the future with an eye towards a player’s impending cliff (I refer to that as the “Megatron Fallacy,” but that’s a story for a different article), but I just don’t see it with Gronk – I’d stand pat.

  1. I play in a 14-team half-PPR keeper league where we start QB/3WR/RB/TE/FLEX.   Touchdowns are worth six points and there are half points for return yards.  We can keep six players where every year the pick compensation moves up one round. I have eight potential players that are good value and was wondering which ones to keep? I’m thinking Antonio Brown (8th), Alshon Jeffery (7th), Kelvin Benjamin (13th), and Thomas Rawls (10th) for sure.  That leaves me with Jarvis Landry (9th round and a top ten receiver with return yards), Michael Crabtree (12th), Travis Kelce (9th round; I have an extra pick in this round), and CJ Anderson (8th) to decide on for my last two keepers.   What do you think?Greg in Calgary

I think Jarvis Landry should be in the first category, not the second, especially given your league setting.  Yes, the half-PPR somewhat neutralizes his volume-based approach, but as you mentioned, return yards loom large, and Landry accumulated nearly 700 of those last season, to go with a score.  The addition of Leonte Carroo does little to worry me, and even if DeVante Parker gains more targets, the offense has already lost 61 looks with the departure of Rishard Matthews to Tennessee.  I think he stays.

For your last spot I’d go with Travis Kelce.  Having a tight end with elite upside, even though it hasn’t been realized over the course of an entire season just yet, is key in a deeper league format.  Since you only have to start one running back, I think nabbing the guy at the shallower position makes a lot of sense.

As to your running back debate, it’s fair to reason that both Thomas Rawls and CJ Anderson have lost value lately.  The Seahawks drafted CJ Prosise with a third round pick, showing that, at the very least, they weren’t happy with the depth of their ball carrying corps.  Given Rawls’ deficiencies in the passing game (across two college offenses, and one in the NFL, he’s never been used extensively as a pass catcher) it stands to figure Prosise will see the field right away, at least on third downs and some passing plays.

As it relates to Anderson, the Broncos re-signed (for some reason?) Ronnie Hillman and then drafted Devontae Booker in the fourth round.  With Denver never really seeming willing to commit to CJA last season, this is worrisome, at the least.  Given that, I agree with you in keeping Rawls over his Denver counterpart, especially given the two-round difference in cost.

  1. So this draft sucked for a lot of dynasty prospects. Do you have any winners of the group?Dan in GA

While the story of the day(s) was more about draft darlings such as Derrick Henry, Leonte Carroo and CJ Prosise going to unenviable situations, there were a few winners who I’ll list below:

Tyler Boyd, WR CIN – Whether you like him or not, Boyd walks into a good situation behind AJ Green and Tyler Eifert.  Sure, Brandon LaFell was signed in the off-season, but as it stands now his excellent 2014 campaign stands as an outlier, rather than what should be expected moving forward.  Boyd could potentially have the inside track to being the team’s long-term WR2, and his ceiling is likely higher than that of either the departed Marvin Jones or Mo Sanu.

Hunter Henry, TE SD – Just barely falling out of the first round, Henry landed in quite possibly the best situation in the league.  Tight ends aren’t expected to do much in their first couple of years, and that will definitively be the case for Henry, as he’ll be playing behind arguably the greatest tight end of all time in Antonio Gates.  But this will give him a chance to learn from the best, and when it is time for him to shoulder more of the load he should have a leg up on the positional competition.

Paul Perkins, RB NYG – Though it’s reasonable to assert the Giants backfield is as big a jumbled mess as there is in the league, some clarification will come likely sooner than later.  Rashad Jennings still probably has the inside track for 2016, and Shane Vereen returns as the pass catching option.  But Andre Williams is terrible, and Orleans Darkwa is unproven and injury-prone.  Perkins is a do-it-all guy (80 receptions in college), and at worst should slot in as the backup to the aging Jennings.  Come 2017, he could be the leader of the team’s committee.

Sterling Shepard, WR NYG – My last winner shares the same team as Mr. Perkins.  Shepard walks into a monstrous target vacuum behind the all-world Odell Beckham, as Victor Cruz hasn’t played in the better part of two seasons, leaving the comically bad Rueben Randle to handle 90 targets last season.  The tight ends should eat into some of that, but Shepard was taken in the second round for a reason.  He now appears likely to creep into the middle portion of the first round of rookie drafts, and could be one of the biggest contributors out of the entire rookie class.

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eric hardter