2016 NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis: Day Two

Ken Kelly

April 29, 2016

Here we go!  Lots of good players are still on the board, including Christian Hackenberg, Connor Cook, Sterling Shepard, Tyler Boyd, Michael Thomas, Leonte Carroo, Kenneth Dixon, Derrick Henry and a host of others.  This should be an exciting night for dynasty leaguers!

Round Two (Ken Kelly)

2 (34) – Dallas Cowboys: Jaylon Smith, LB Notre Dame

This will be one of only two defensive players I’ll name on this post, but just wanted to point out what a nice moment that was. Hopefully he can return to form and become the star he looked destined to be.

2 (35) – San Diego Chargers: Hunter Henry, TE Arkansas

San Diego is looking ahead post-Antonio Gates here and nab the top tight end in the draft. He should push Jeff Cumberland and Sean McGrath aside rather quickly, but don’t expect immediate gratification with a dynasty selection here.  He has some upside, but he doesn’t look like an elite prospect and in a world where it’s Rob Gronkowski and just about everyone else, there’s not too much to get excited about here.  Henry seems like a late second or third round dynasty pick to me as the short-term replacement for Ladarius Green and the long-term replacement for Gates.

2 (36) – Jacksonville Jaguars: Myles Jack, LB UCLA

Here’s the second defender I’ll mention. The fall ends for Jack as he joins a defense that’s going to add Dante Fowler, Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack to create a new young corps. It’s not time to trade Andrew Luck, but if those three can stay healthy (big question) and reach their potential, that’s a scary trio in the AFC South.

2 (40) – NY Giants: Sterling Shepard, WR Oklahoma

I like this move quite a bit. The Giants can’t count on Victor Cruz coming back and Rueben Randle will be playing in Philadelphia, so receiver was a glaring need for the G-Men.  He’s a very good route runner and is going to find himself on a team not afraid to throw the ball. While he’ll obviously be second fiddle to Odell Beckham, he should be able to contribute right away. Shepard should end up as a pick in the mid-to-late first round of dynasty rookie drafts.

2 (45) – Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry, RB Alabama

Wow.

The Titans take the plunge on Derrick Henry and pair him with DeMarco Murray. It’s an odd fit on paper, but Murray also averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last season and didn’t look like the same player. Having Henry will help spell Murray here and there and ensure the Titans can run the ball, but it doesn’t help either player’s value much.  It’s conceivable that Henry takes the reigns if Murray struggles this year, but his immediate impact won’t be felt next season. Owners of players like Jeremy Langford and Thomas Rawls are rejoicing, but few others are with this spot.

As a result of this surprise pick, the top four in rookie drafts are nearly locked in with Ezekiel Elliott going at the 1.01 and some combination of Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman will go next. Henry will be in the mix with players like Will FullerSterling Shepard and the next player I’ll name here shortly in tier three.

2 (47) – New Orleans Saints: Michael Thomas, WR Ohio State

Thomas isn’t a burner, but he has good hands and nice size. He’ll easily project as the long-term replacement for Marques Colston and Drew Brees should really love his ability to run solid routes. Saints receivers aren’t as sexy as they once were due to Brees being at the tail end of his career, but Thomas should be a nice complement to Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead. I like him as a mid-to-late first rounder for sure. This news isn’t great for Brandon Coleman.

2 (51) – New York Jets: Christian Hackenberg, QB Penn State

Hackenberg really needed to go to a team that would develop his game, re-work his confidence and let him sit and learn behind a savvy veteran.

He didn’t.

2 (55) – Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Boyd, WR Pittsburgh

The heralded Pitt receiver goes to the Bengals to be AJ Green’s new Robin (McShay literally just stole my line as I was typing). He’s not a burner, but he’s ultra productive and should do a nice job in replacing Marvin Jones. To me, I like Boyd quite a bit as a late first round pick as a player who has a lot of upside in an offense needing receivers.

2 (59) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Roberto Aguayo, K Florida State

No. Just no.

…but a kicker went before Leonte Carroo, Kenneth Dixon, Devontae Booker and others.

3 (73) – Miami Dolphins: Kenyan Drake, RB Alabama

Now it’s getting fun.

Owners of Jay Ajayi have to be pretty happy the Dolphins didn’t get Ezekiel Elliott or Derrick Henry and ended up with the speedy and dynamic Drake instead. He shouldn’t push Ajayi to be the starter and isn’t really built to be a full-time player anyway.  He’s explosive and could make for a nice third down back, but he’s no real threat to Ajayi’s dynasty value.

3 (81) – Atlanta Falcons: Austin Hooper, TE Stanford

Here’s a decent flyer for a TE-needy team. Hooper seems to be a bit of a late bloomer and shouldn’t have too much trouble getting on the field. The challenge is seeing if Matt Ryan can bounce back.

3 (85) – Houston Texans: Braxton Miller, WR/KR/QB/RB/DB/LB Ohio State

I really have no idea how the Texans will use Miller, but he’s certainly a great athlete. They obviously already have DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Cecil Shorts and Jaelen Strong, but they can be pretty creative on offense now.  Miller will be a flyer in dynasty rookie drafts, but a fun one, at that.

3 (86) – Miami Dolphins: Leonte Carroo, WR Rutgers

The last of the really intriguing receivers goes to the Dolphins. I don’t love the fit with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker already locked in for Miami. Carroo’s value took a bit of a hit with his fall here and the landing spot didn’t help.

3 (90) – Seattle Seahawks: CJ Prosise, RB Notre Dame

The Seahawks are moving on without Marshawn Lynch and need some help for Thomas Rawls, who was a revelation last year but also went down with an injury at the end of the season. Prosise can catch the ball out of the backfield and was a former receiver for the Irish.

This landing spot is really intriguing.  For as great as Rawls was last year, his violent running style lends itself to injury and Prosise has the talent to thrive in the right situation. It’s going to be pretty interesting to see just what Seattle says about their new runner. CJ could find himself begin taken late in the first round of what looks to be a fairly weak dynasty rookie draft.

3 (91) – New England Patriots: Jacoby Brissett, QB NC State

He’ll probably be a Hall of Famer.

3 (93) – Cleveland Browns: Cody Kessler, QB USC

Robert Griffin III is going to be given a legitimate chance to stake his claim as the quarterback of the Cleveland Browns this season. With Kessler in tow as their young quarterback to groom, Griffin won’t be challenged much. Kessler has talent to be a starter in the league, but he’s nothing close to a sure thing.

April 28, 2016

Good morning everyone!

Welcome to the exclusive NFL Draft Pick-by-Pick Analysis post from DLF. It seems like we’ve again been waiting forever for the NFL Draft to arrive and it’s finally here. This will be an incredibly exciting weekend and we thank you, our Premium Content members, for spending it with us.  For many of you, this is your fifth NFL Draft as a Premium Member and your support continues to fuel our fire!

Let’s start off this morning by explaining a little bit about what to expect. For those of you who have been around, it will be much like past years, so grab a beverage and buckle up.

1.) We’ll start off later today with some random comments about the day and follow that up with our exclusive analysis of the picks as they come in, starting tonight. This post will be continuously updated throughout the entire weekend from the bottom up. So, expect to see the newest information at the top for convenience purposes – this will help you avoid the annoying refresh and scrolling down part of the experience. Harder for us, but seamless for you.  Easy choice for us, there.

2.) We’ll be sharing our thoughts on each of the relevant picks as they come in throughout the NFL Draft. Many of you check the Rotoworld fantasy news feed, so think of it that way, but with more of a dynasty spin as we complete our wrap-ups.  We won’t be posting commentary on the 75th right guard taken, but expect anything important in relation to dynasty leagues being covered.

3.) Feel free to make any comments here on the post, or within the Premium (or free) forums. While we won’t have the ability to respond to many of the comments or questions immediately (we’ll have our hands full updating the post here), comments are encouraged.  You guys are all the “elite,” so I would expect some great discussions all over DLF the entire weekend.

We’re ready to again be able to offer this to you guys as an exclusive part of your Premium Membership with us.  Thanks a ton for supporting DLF and enjoy the draft!

Expect the initial downloadable draft sheet for the rookies to again be available earlier than you could possibly expect as well!

Posts are authored by either Ken Kelly (KK) or Jeff Haverlack (JH).

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Pre-Draft

The trade intrigue we usually have at the top is all but over as the LA Rams and Philadelphia Eagles paid the price (and a heavy one at that) to move up into the top two picks in order to select their franchise quarterbacks in Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.  The intrigue surrounding the first two picks isn’t too exciting at this point, but things will heat up as soon as the Cowboys are on the clock at #4.  Will they really take the plunge and select Ezekiel Elliott?  That’s certainly one situation to watch.  The other real bit of intrigue in round one will surround the receivers.  Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Laquon Treadwell and Josh Doctson appear to be the first four receivers who will be taken, but it’s anyone’s guess as to when, where and even in which order.  Outside of that, the night will have some drama in the last hour or so as teams may trade up for a shot at quarterbacks like Paxton Lynch or Connor Cook.

Expecting the unexpected is always a good rule of thumb and it should be an exciting night.  I’m going to make a HUGE assumption and post the first two picks.  If they’re wrong, I’ll adjust it.  However, I’m feeling pretty good enough about them even an hour before the draft.

Round One (Ken Kelly)

1 (1) – LA Rams:  Jared Goff, QB California

The Rams gave up a bounty worthy of a quarterback like Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Unfortunately, Goff doesn’t exactly fit that type of elite profile. That’s not to say the Rams are getting a poor prospect, though.  The price to pay for signal callers is extreme and Goff should provide LA with a new face of the franchise. He has a solid arm, good size, can make any throw on the field and shows good mobility in the pocket. While his ceiling is a little more like Eli Manning than Peyton Manning, Goff should solidify the position for the Rams as long as he can really hone in on improving his accuracy.  He’ll be a highly coveted asset in 2QB leagues, but certainly not a first round prospect in traditional dynasty leagues. Case Keenum may start the season for LA if Goff isn’t ready, but he’s not someone who should be a staple on many dynasty rosters.

1 (2) – Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, QB NDSU

The Eagles are betting they have the next Ben Roethlisberger in Wentz and they better be right. Wentz fits the profile with his size, arm strength, intelligence and leadership ability, but he also played against much inferior competition than a player like Goff (or even many of the other quarterback prospects). That being said, if Wentz can make the difficult transition from North Dakota State to the NFC East, he has the physical ability to be the best player taken in this draft. I know this much – the Eagles did as much homework as humanly possible on him and are convinced he’s their long-term answer.  Time will tell.

The interesting part here isn’t the dynasty value of Wentz (it’s very similar to that of Goff, in my opinion as a second round pick). The intrigue here surrounds the future of both Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, who both have to be steamed at the situation playing out like this.

1 (4) – Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott, RB Ohio State

In the end, Jerry gets his guy.

It’s unusual to see a running back drafted this highly in round one these days, but Elliott seems like a special talent. After a monster 2014 that featured 1,878 rushing yards, the Buckeye returned last season to post 1,821 yards and a ridiculous 23 touchdowns. He averaged over six yards per carry each of the past two years and even posted three straight 200-yard games at the end of 2014 against the likes of powerhouses like Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon. He’s great at the second level and should be a workhorse for the Cowboys from day one.

Elliott is going to be the consensus 1.01 in rookie drafts this season and his selection is a death blow to the values of Darren McFadden, Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar. I don’t see him in the same light as Todd Gurley, but he’s going to be staple in dynasty leagues for some time.

1 (14) – Cleveland Browns: Corey Coleman, WR Baylor

Wow.

I said earlier that any of the four receivers could go in any order, but I really didn’t think Coleman would be the first receiver off the board. Coleman was projected in the 20s (possibly to the Jets), but he was obviously the top receiver on the board of the Cleveland Browns.  He’s explosive, fast and quick, but isn’t big (5’10”) and has struggled with drops.

Coleman is likely more suited as a WR2, but he’ll be given every opportunity to be the WR1 for the Browns. He’s an elite athlete and in a class without a bona fide stud at receiver, he may have the highest ceiling. Taking Coleman is going to be a risk in dynasty leagues, but this is also a draft with few sure things outside of Elliott.  At this point, Coleman looks like he’ll make a strong push to be in the top four selections in dynasty drafts based on the enormous investment the Browns have made here.

In the end, Coleman is a stellar athlete who put up monster numbers at Baylor. The Browns obviously hope they now have a replacement for Josh Gordon. Could there be a little RGIII to Coleman ex-Baylor magic?

1 (21) – Houston Texans: Will Fuller, WR Notre Dame

The worst kept secret is out – Will Fuller goes to Houston.  He’s a major downfield weapon (4.32, 40) who has elite athletic ability, but struggles with drops. He should be a really great complement to WR1 DeAndre Hopkins, but that’s not going to help immensely in dynasty leagues. This is going to be a high risk / high reward pick in a dynasty league for two reasons. First, he’s likely not going to be a high volume player next to Hopkins. Second, he’s a burner and is likely going to have a lot of those feast or famine games, similar to Mike Wallace (when he was Mike Wallace) and DeSean Jackson.  Fuller will be a consideration in the top five of rookie drafts, but you’re going to really need to be convinced he can be an elite downfield weapon, especially in a PPR league.

1 (22) – Washington Redskins: Josh Doctson, WR TCU

This was just about the time for a receiver run and it starts now.  Doctson was my top receiver and he’ll have every chance to blossom for the Redskins. You have to figure Pierre Garcon may be on the move now with Washington’s move here. DeSean Jackson can still take the top off a defense (and he could even be released instead of Garcon), but Doctson is a player who looks like he could become a very well-rounded WR1 for Kirk Cousins. I really like his size and speed combination (I think he plays faster than he’s timed) and believe he should contend for a top three pick in dynasty leagues.

1 (23) – Minnesota Vikings: Laquon Treadwell, WR Ole Miss

This is going to be one of the most debated dynasty picks going into the Summer. Treadwell was projected to be the first receiver off the board until his speed came under fire over the last couple of months. Can he separate?  Can he get off the line of scrimmage?  Can he get open fast enough for Teddy Bridgewater? There are a lot of questions about Treadwell, but I know this – he can play and put up monster numbers in the toughest conference in America.  The Vikings have now armed themselves with two good receivers as he joins Stefon Diggs, who proved to be a bargain in fantasy and reality last year.  I believe he fits this offense pretty well since Bridgewater has such a tendency to throw shorter routes anyway. Many mock drafts projected Treadwell to Minnesota because he seemed to fit so well and this should be a really good pairing.  Treadwell will be in the mix at the top half of round one in dynasty drafts this Summer.

1 (26) – Denver Broncos: Paxton Lynch, QB Memphis

Talk about size. Lynch is 6’7″ and 244 pounds. He’s a project, but he won’t be asked to start right away as he’ll “learn” behind Mark Sanchez until things look desperate for Denver. He’s a great athlete and needs a lot of refinement, but this is a pretty exciting pick for Denver if he can adapt to a pro style offense, show maturity and become a real leader. Lynch will be a flyer in dynasty leagues, likely late in round two or round three.  You also have to figure this is bad news for Sam Bradford and Colin Kaepernick.

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ken kelly