Rookie Bust Mock: Round Three

Dan Meylor

Most rookie mock drafts you see like to focus on the strengths of each prospect selected.  This isn’t one of those drafts.

At this point in the process, dynasty owners are used to hearing about the impressive burst and agility of Ezekiel Elliot and the eye popping quickness of Corey Coleman.  For good reason, we tend to focus our attention on the positives in each prospect’s game.  In this mock however, we’ll try to throw up the red flag on some of the weaknesses that our favorite rookies possess and explain which ones have the most potential to “bust.”

To be clear, we’re not necessarily proclaiming a player as a bust in this exercise.  We just want to shine a light on some of the things that should concern dynasty owners going into their rookie drafts.

There was only one rule for who was eligible for this three-round mock draft.  To make sure all players taken were relevant dynasty picks, any player selected had to be ranked as a top-48 overall rookie according to DLF’s rookie rankings.

We already covered rounds one and two.  Let’s continue with the third and final round.

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3.01 – Kelvin Taylor, RB Florida

Graham Barfield’s thoughts: Taylor’s rookie average draft position isn’t egregious by any means (41st overall), but he has barely functional NFL athleticism (15th percentile SPARQ) and only 20.9% of his carries in 2015went for a first down which was the lowest mark in the 2016 class (of 16 qualifying running backs). I still haven’t fully unpacked what went wrong for Taylor at Florida, but there are red flags aplenty here.

My thoughts: Despite an NFL pedigree, Taylor lacks the strength and power to be a tackle breaking inside runner and doesn’t have the speed to get to the perimeter at the next level.  Also struggling regularly finding open running lanes while in college, it’s difficult to see him making a fantasy impact on Sundays.

3.02 –Connor Cook, QB Michigan State

Matt Price’s thoughts: A candidate to be drafted in the second round, Cook is maddeningly inconsistent. 56% completion percentage is not good enough to get it done in the NFL, Just ask Jake Locker. When under duress, his first option is often to just chuck it downfield instead of looking for an easier option underneath or in the flats. His throws are often off-balance and off his back foot for no good reason. There were also reports from his combine interviews about his Football I.Q. being questionable, including poor play recall ability. For me, these concerns point to him being a risky pick within the first two rounds of the draft.

My thoughts:  Although Cook isn’t being drafted all that highly in most rookie drafts, he’s sure to be a factor in super-flex and 2QB leagues – particularly if he’s taken in the first 40 picks of the NFL Draft.  While he has a lot of experience as a four-year starter in the Big Ten, he never really took the step to becoming a top quarterback prospect.  On top of the question marks that Matt brought up, Cook stares down his first option far too often and makes ill-advised throws into coverage when under pressure.  Although many feel his experience makes him the most NFL ready prospect in the draft, his lack of playmaking skills make him a candidate to be a 2QB dynasty bust.

3.03 – Paxton Lynch, QB Memphis

Jacob Feldman’s thoughts: It is extremely likely that Lynch is the third quarterback off the board and likely a first round pick in the NFL. I like him more in 2QB leagues, but there are a lot of concerns. He’s quite raw, played against weaker competition most games, and has accuracy issues. There is quite a bit of potential as well. For more on Lynch, check out the rookie profile I wrote on him.

My thoughts: I’m not nearly as high on Lynch as many.  As Jacob mentioned, he has trouble with accuracy and is incredibly raw.  He also struggles to move on from his primary read and stares down receivers which he can get away with in the AAC but won’t fly at the next level.  Even in super-flex leagues, I’m letting somebody else roll the dice on Lynch.

3.04 – D’haquille Williams, WR Auburn

Trevor Bucher’s thoughts: Williams is a risk better left for someone else.  He is advanced in age for a rookie with relatively little big time college experience, having been a JuCo star.  His well-documented character concerns should be a red flag, especially for a player who, despite ideal size, lacks the athletic measurables that one would expect to see in a top prospect.  Formerly seen as a potential day two selection, Williams has seen his stock fall from grace sharply.  Someone will likely take a swing for him in your league due to his evaluations from a year or two ago.  My advice is that you don’t let yourself be that guy.

My thoughts: Williams was very highly regarded as recently as last fall but has dropped off most dynasty owners’ radar due to transgressions off the field as well as half-hearted play on it.  With slow foot speed and below average route route which will keep him from getting open at the next level, he’ll need just the right landing spot to make a fantasy impact.  You can read more of my thoughts on Williams in the rookie profile I wrote on him a few weeks ago.

3.05 – Jonathan Williams, RB Arkansaswilliams

Jeff Miller’s thoughts: As with my second round pick, Williams is another guy whose ADP has been climbing. Back in January he was the 26th rookie selected and has ascended ever since, currently occupying the 19th spot in our April mocks. The reasons for this aren’t hard to find, namely his incredible feet. But for me, that’s where things get murky.

The feet giveth, and the feet taketh away. Late last summer Williams underwent surgery on his left hoof, causing him to miss the entire season. There is speculation he still isn’t fully recovered, leading to a 4.59 40 at his pro day. If we ignore every other potential warning sign, for me, the prospect of a lingering foot issue for a back whose quick feet are his biggest asset is a pretty big red flag.

My thoughts: On top of the injury concerns, Williams appears to be a physical runner that wants to be a perimeter threat at times.  Often bouncing runs outside rather than lowering his shoulder and pounding through the middle to get what the play is designed for, he leaves yards on the field.  Having proven to be far more effective when sharing the backfield with Alex Collins, it’s logical to fear that NFL teams will see him as no more than a committee back.

3.06 – Jared Goff, QB California

Ryan McDowell’s thoughts: Expected to be the first player chosen in the NFL Draft, Jared Goff is likely bound for LA as the Rams next starting quarterback. Goff put up some mega-stats in college at California, but won’t have anyone to throw the ball to in Los Angeles. I’m not a believer in the Tavon Austin breakout and Kenny Britt and Brian Quick continue to disappoint. It will be important for the Rams to add some pass-catchers to go along with their new signal caller.

My thoughts: Although I prefer Carson Wentz, most draftniks and dynasty owners seem to prefer Goff for his strong arm and quick release but there are certainly some red flags when looking at the former Cal Bear.  Not nearly as accurate as you’d want a potential top overall draft pick to be, he overthrows receivers far too much.  He’ll also have to play more under center in the NFL (which he did only 0.2% of the time in college) and will have to stand in the pocket more to find open receivers rather than depend on the coaching staff to script where the ball should go in the quick passing game.

While there are lots of things to like about Goff, there’s certainly also a lot of bust potential.

3.07 – Paul Perkins, RB UCLA

My thoughts: Perkins is a small back (5’-10”, 208 pounds) and because of it, lacks the power to push a pile for extra yardage and struggles to break tackles in the open field.  Unfortunately, he’s also at his best when finding a hole between the tackles and using his elusiveness to make linebackers miss at the point of attack which may not translate well in the NFL due to his small stature.  In the right system, Perkins has upside, but if not used right he could be a bust for dynasty owners.

3.08 – Keith Marshall, RB Georgia

George Kritikos’ thoughts: When you get late into these drafts, it is hard to fault anyone for taking a flier on a player. That said, despite the high school pedigree, Marshall falls under the “running back with little college production” label. Injuries and an insane Georgia running back depth chart contributed, but the downside for these kinds of running backs are massively low. Marshall put up a great forty yard dash, partially expected given his track background, but the agility and burst drills were below average. This shows up on the field with his rigid running style, which puts him off balance and makes it hard for him to make tacklers miss in the open field. Marshall is going one round too early (mid-third) for my liking given the injury history, lack of production, and other rookie options in this range.

My thoughts: Despite his nice combination of size (5’-11”, 219 pounds), speed (4.31 40-time) and power (25 bench reps), Marshall is being taken in the middle of the third round of rookie drafts due to his trouble seeing running lanes at times and his lack of aggressiveness with the ball in his hands.  Although he certainly has untapped upside, he’s also a risk even in the middle of the third round.

hooper3.09 – Austin Hooper, TE Stanford

Izzy Elkaffas’ thoughts: It’s simple. Tight ends don’t pay immediate dividends, and this crop of tight ends are the worst we’ve seen in a while. Just because you’re the least ugly, doesn’t mean you’re not ugly. I stay away from the position in rookie drafts and try to buy them at a discount at a later date if I truly like their potential. Dynasty owners have turned into owners that expect immediate production, and if it’s not there, they assume it never will be. Will Hooper be good? Maybe, but I don’t want a stagnant asset on my roster for multiple years to find out. Just ask the Maxx Williams and Eric Ebron owners.

My thoughts: Some have hyped Hooper of late for his ability to stretch the seam and make plays as a pass catcher but that’s only because there isn’t a lot to be excited about with this tight end class.  There is potential with Hooper to be a good football player but he doesn’t display the route running, physicality or ability to make contested catches to be a highly regarded fantasy asset.

3.10 – Tajae Sharpe, WR Massachusetts

Nathan Powell’s thoughts: I was in a tough spot with this pick as I didn’t really see any legitimate prospects with bust possibility. Sharpe is going at 17 overall in rookie drafts and he does have the glaring concern of his small hands at 8 3/8 inches. He hauled in 111 passes in his final college season, which was impressive, but it was with a mediocre yards per catch of 11.9.

My thoughts: Lanky (6’-2”) but skinny (194 pounds), Sharpe doesn’t have the frame of a playmaking wide receiver in the NFL.  Also struggling at times to go up and get it in jump ball situations despite excellent hands, he should be a better red zone threat but that part of his game hasn’t developed just yet.

3.11 – Rashard Higgins, WR Colorado State

Bruce Matson’s thoughts: I love his college production but I hate his athleticism. His 4.64 40-yard dash ranks in the 11th percentile amongst wide receivers. He’s a great route runner but his lack of speed and quickness is going to prevent him from separating from defensive backs. At 6-foot-1 and 196 pounds, Higgins is very thin and will need to add some mass to be able to handle being jammed at the line of scrimmage. The odds of him becoming a top-20 wide receiver are highly unlikely as there aren’t many elite receivers in the league with his size and athleticism

My thoughts: Like Bruce, I really like Higgins’ numbers while at Colorado State but question whether his skills will translate to the NFL game.  The lack of speed is a problem and his rounded routes and inability to get off of press coverage could keep him from making an impact on Sundays.

3.12 – Christian Hackenberg, QB Penn State

Eric Olinger’s thoughts: Hack was all the rage when he was coached by Bill O’Brien his freshman year. Many thought he’d be a lock top 5 pick whenever he decided to enter the draft. After back to back disappointing seasons he finds himself somewhere in the day 2 conversation with plenty of question marks around his potential but he has the tools.

My thoughts: I’m still a believer in Hackenberg but Eric is right. Despite having ideal size and many of the tools you look for in an NFL passer, his inaccuracy is maddening at times and he looks jittery in the pocket after being hit – which was often behind PSU’s offensive line.  He’s a developmental prospect with a whole heap of potential, but it’s questionable at best as to whether he’ll realize his upside.

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dan meylor