Dynasty Perspective: Top Five Coaching Changes

Ryan Finley

Another year, another fistful of shakeups at coaching positions across the league; I tried to come up with a witty way to talk about the frequency of NFL coaching changes, but frankly the Kardashians stay with boyfriends longer than NFL teams stick with coaches. As dynasty owners these changes can have a significant impact on the value or quality of our player assets. Some changes that we saw this off-season should be more influential than others on our dynasty assets, so here’s a look at the top five coaching changes and how they impact dynasty.

  1. Hue Jackson (HC/OC, Cleveland Browns)

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

The Browns sent Mike Pettine packing after a 10-22 run as the head coach. Not content with picking up another up-and-coming coordinator type, the Browns landed one of the most sought after coaching candidates this off-season in Hue Jackson.

Cleveland was near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories last year, while Cincinnati was near the top. One particular difference was that Cleveland relied on the passing game more heavily, while Cincinnati had a much more balanced attack – I expect Jackson to create more offensive balance. Jackson has also shown the ability to run a creative, productive offense over several years, and this will hopefully lead to an offensive turnaround in Cleveland.

It’s hard to know what will happen at quarterback, as both Josh McCown and Robert Griffin III are in town. Jackson had success with a shared backfield in Cincinnati, so this could be good news for both Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson. The two running backs even look similar skill-wise to their counterparts in Cincinnati.  I believe both RGIII and Johnson are great buy-low candidates. Duke may cost a little more, but he’s one of my personal favorite prospects. The wide receiver story is a mess, and I would recommend avoiding it for now. Josh Gordon is still the same phenomenal talent that can’t seem to stay out of trouble, and the rest of the WR depth chart is marginal at best. Gary Barnidge might be the beneficiary of more looks with the poor WR corps, and Jackson showed last year he can feed a tight end.  

  1. Chip Kelly (HC, San Francisco 49ers)

Chip Kelly’s NFL coaching career thus far has been like a Greek tragedy. It started with a meteoric rise that assigned Kelly god-like football prowess, and ended with a precipitous fall from grace and an early and unexpected exit from Philly. Philly did paint themselves in a corner a bit with Kelly, as they couldn’t really just take away the personnel power they gave. But Philly’s loss is San Fran’s gain, and now Kelly can get back to what he does best, coach (and only coach) a football team.

This will certainly have a significant impact on the 49er offense. In 2015 they scored the fewest points in the league (by a fair margin) and were next to last in total yards. The Eagles didn’t have a great year and were still easily in the top half of the league. This will likely flip by a significant margin now that Kelly is leading the offense.

So will Colin Kaepernick stick around or not? He would finally provide Kelly the truly mobile quarterback he has been craving.  On the other hand, he isn’t the most accurate thrower, which is quite important in the Kelly offense. Perhaps Kelly can improve Kaep in that are, however. As far as the backfield, word has it that Carlos Hyde has slimmed down to the 225 range for the up-tempo Kelly offense. Even though I called him a guy to avoid last year, I’m buying Hyde where I can. There is one other player I’m very interested in by the bay, and that’s Torrey Smith. Yes, he’s never really lived up to his athletic profile or expectations, but perhaps the offensive genius Kelly can finally show the NFL what Smith can really do.

  1. Doug Pederson (HC Philadelphia Eagles)

This one is a bit of a head-scratcher. Jeffrey Lurie apparently felt burned by his mistakes with Chip Kelly, and elected to go with a less contentious captain for the Eagles’ ship. Doug Pederson in many ways is the polar opposite of Kelly, both in offensive philosophy and disposition.

Now it may be surprising, but the Chiefs were a better offense than the Eagles last year. Where the Eagles were top 10 in pass attempts last year, the Chiefs were near the bottom. So this will certainly lead to a change in the Eagles’ run/pass ratio.

I’ll start this off by saying I’m staying away from all Eagle quarterbacks. I have to say I’m somewhat interested in Ryan Mathews. I’ve typically avoided Mathews due to his injury concerns, but he averaged 5 YPC and scored 6 touchdowns last year while sharing the backfield duties. Perhaps with DeMarco Murray gone he gets a lot more work. Given they just traded away so many draft picks (from ESPN.com), I don’t know if they draft a running back. I would also have to say I would avoid Jordan Matthews. He’s still a talented guy, but at least some of his value was tied up in that Kelly offense. I’d also target tight end Zach Ertz. He finished 2015 very strong, and the Eagles rewarded him with a hefty extension.

  1. Adam Gase (HC Miami Dolphins)

As a Bears fan, this hurts. It really hurts. I knew he wasn’t long for the Windy City, but it didn’t stop me from shedding a tear when he landed in Miami. Anyhow, Miami seemed to be relatively happy with how Dan Campbell ran the team to close out the season, but apparently they weren’t happy enough.

Gase brings a solid track record over the past few seasons. Some thought his success came on the coattails of Peyton Manning in Denver, but what happened in Chicago says something different. The Bears had tried many ways to get the best out of Jay Cutler, and Gase was the first one to actually do it. Miami is the other interesting part of this story, as many dynasty owners bought pretty heavily into the Fins last off-season. The growth of Ryan Tannehill and the offense overall convinced many that the Dolphins could be the next great offense. Then 2015 happened.

Can Gase do what Joe Philbin and Dan Campbell couldn’t? My answer is “maybe.” While I’m not all-in on Miami, I am intrigued. Tannehill might be an interesting pickup at the right price. I’m more interested in some of the other younger Dolphins. Jay Ajayi may currently be the de facto starter, though I do expect them to add an RB in the draft. Everyone loves DeVante Parker (and I’m no different,) which likely makes his cost prohibitive. Honestly, I’d be interested in any key position player on the Dolphins. I do believe in Gase and think the 2016 Dolphins may be what we had hoped the 2015 version would be.

  1. Dirk Koetter (HC, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

The firing of Lovie Smith was quite unexpected last year. Smith is a coach who has always been well-liked, and the Bucs did seem to be on the rise under his leadership. But Tampa Bay decided to make the change, and they promoted OC Koetter to the head job. It’s also important to note the Offensive Coordinator he brought in, Todd Monken. The Bucs even bought out Monken’s deal with Southern Miss to bring him to the team.

This coaching shift likely shows a philosophical shift as well. Lovie always said he “gets off the bus running -” and the number of rushing attempts for Doug Martin last year shows just that. Monken ran a spread offense at Southern Miss, and I expect the Tampa Bay offense to open it up more in 2016. Given their weapons, it could be significant.

Jameis Winston had a successful rookie season and should build on that. Martin may lose some carry volume, but could make up for it with touchdowns if the offense is more effective. Mike Evans saw some regression in his sophomore season, mostly due to far lower touchdown totals. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins showed signs of growth, but not so much that his price would be unattainable. On the cheaper side, there may be PPR value in Charles Sims in this offense. Gase loves throwing to RBs, and Sims has shown that ability.

Honorable Mentions:

Of course, there were many more coaching changes, but not all made the cut. Dowell Loggains as the new OC in Chicago raises many questions, but it’s too hard to tell which way that might go. The story is similar with Ken Zampese, the new OC in Cincinnati. He’s been with the team on the offensive side for some time, so may continue much of what Hue Jackson had put in place. Ben McAdoo as the new HC for the Giants might not change much about the offense there, either.

[/am4show]