IDP Only Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One
While much of the dynasty community is spun up about the offensive players, I am focused on trying to find value in my IDP leagues with these defensive rookies. I thought it would be a good time to gather the juggernauts of the IDP world for an IDP only rookie mock draft. This will help in evaluating some player’s raw ability and potential outside of scheme fits and landing spots. I also really enjoy hearing differing opinions on these defensive prospects.
For this mock, we did three rounds with twelve teams. We are assuming starting 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 DB, and one defensive flex. The wrinkle here is the scoring format. DLF alumni Tyler Huggins and Eric Breeze came up with a great attempt to even out the scoring of offense and defense. They took this idea even further and tried to even out scoring for all the defensive positions, trying to reward points for things that actually correlate to on field ability such as passes defended for cornerbacks. The full scoring can be found here. Just keep in mind the scoring is extremely even across positions just as the league that started this scoring is named: No Player Left Behind. I also asked each drafter to assume they had a competitive squad with no glaring short term needs. With all the scoring and league assumptions out of the way, let’s get to the picks!
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1.01 – Myles Jack, LB UCLA
Tyler Huggins (@HBombIDP) thoughts: At the time of this pick, Jack’s medical status and consequently his NFL draft value is in limbo. The unknown doesn’t stop me from making this pick. I truly believe a healthy Myles Jack is the best LB prospect to come down the pipe in some time. If he does indeed go into a free-fall in the NFL draft he’ll slide down my personal draft board, but right here & now this was a slam dunk.
My Thoughts: Tyler has been driving the Jack bandwagon since last summer, so this pick does not come as a surprise. Jack’s upside is tantalizing, but the recent reports from his medical recheck are worrisome. Also the draft community is been going too far already anointing him as a future hall of famer and a faster version of Ray Lewis. I love Jack’s potential, but we need to calm down a little bit with the expectations. Also Jack’s actual production was somewhat sporadic based on his usage. Thus there is some projection that must be accounted for in his future NFL role. I think we are in store for a roller coaster ride of value with him throughout the injury recovery. I still like him in the top five IDPs, but first off the board just feels a little too risky for me.
1.02 – Darron Lee, LB Ohio State
Eric Olinger’s (@OlingerIDP) thoughts: This was difficult for me because as a Notre Dame and a big time Jaylon Smith fan I really wanted to take him but his injury is legit. The next best option, in my opinion, is Darron Lee from Ohio State. He’s a prototypical weakside, three down linebacker in the mold of Alec Ogletree. I’d like to see him put 10-15 pounds of NFL weight room muscle on his frame but has day one starting potential in both NFL and fantasy leagues.
My Thoughts: Ladies and gentlemen here is your post draft 1.01 IDP ADP player. Before the injuries Lee was thought of as the third best linebacker in this draft. After injuries to the players above him and an outstanding combine, he sits atop the pile. Some have even made the argument that he is easier to project into the NFL even than a healthy Myles Jack. I find it interesting that Eric Olinger mentions that he would like to see Lee gain more weight and muscle. This is a common sentiment in the draft community. I think we should remember that Lee has higher BMI than almost every other Will prospect in this draft. I have also heard Lee was one of the strongest squatters on the team putting up 625 pounds. At this point in time he is the safest linebacker and has plenty of upside.
1.03 – DeForest Buckner, Edge Oregon
Alexander Onoshku’s (@Dynasty_Al) thoughts: Improved his pass rushing skills last year to go along with an already dominant run stuffing skill set, should come by sacks and tackles easily.
My Thoughts: Buckner is considered to be a top ten talent in this draft. From an IDP perspective it feels pretty safe that he will be used as 6/7 technique defensive end and not be cast as a stand up outside linebacker. Buckner is a gigantic prospect at 6’7”, showed good explosion for his size, and has had solid production at Oregon. Buckner should provide a solid tackle floor and double digit sack upside. There just are not enough of those type of defensive lineman to go around in the IDP world, so the pick makes sense.
1.04 – Joey Bosa, Edge Ohio State
Drew Dodson’s (@DrewDodsonNFL) thoughts: I can see Bosa putting up DL1 stats for the majority of his career. Bosa has the chance to be a top five dyno DE within the next 2 years.
My Thoughts: Bosa has one of the highest floors of any defensive players. Also it is very clear that Bosa should play with his hand in the dirt. My real concern here is that he feels like one of those players that is a better football player than fantasy player. I expect solid tackle numbers and he should draw lots of attention that may free up his teammates. I just do not see the explosiveness to put up double digit sacks consistently. I see a long time DE2 but I’m not sure he will ever be that DE1 that Drew expects.
1.05 – Reggie Ragland, LB Alabama
Ryan Finley’s (@RyanCFinley) thoughts: This was a tough pick at this spot. Both DEs I hoped would fall to me were off the board, as well as LBs Jack and Lee. I strongly considered Jaylon Smith here, but the injury made me hold off. I know Ragland isn’t as exciting as other defensive players in this draft, but he’s also one of the guys who most looked like an NFL player on film. His value may depend (as with most guys) on his landing spot, but I can see him getting right into just about any mix for the starting middle linebacker spot.
My Thoughts: Ragland is tackling machine that is built to play the mike linebacker role. He performed better at the combine than many expected. Ragland is quite limited in coverage and is somewhat of a one trick pony. Although the same could be said about Denzel Perryman last year. I think you know exactly what you are getting with Ragland.
1.06 – Joshua Perry, LB Ohio State
Eric Braun’s (@FFPlanetX) thoughts: Perry actually had a better combine and pro day than Ragland. He was more productive in college, comes cheaper and there are quite a few teams looking for an upgrade at ILB. If he can handle passing downs he’ll be solid.
My Thoughts: Scheme fit and draft position will be critical with Perry. I understand Eric Braun’s take here as a cheaper version of Ragland. Perry does have great size, although I do not see as good of instincts as Ragland on film. This could turn out to be a very solid pick, if Perry can find a situation where he can seize a starting inside role.
1.07 – Deion Jones, LB LSU
Steve Wyremski’s (@SteveWyremski) thoughts: He should stick as a 4-3 WLB or a 3-4 ILB, which will be perfect for IDP purposes. He has the potential to play every down. While he needs to improve with some experience, the speed and athleticism is there.
My Thoughts: The Deion Jones hype train has been running hot lately. He is a rangy player with lots of potential as a will backer. On film his tackling and angles leave something to be desired. I like the pick here and I can see him finding a starting role quickly because the number of NFL teams that are in need of a WLB.
1.08 – Jaylon Smith, LB Notre Dame
Adam Tzikas (@Adamtz) thoughts: Would have been the 1.01 without the knee injury. Not hearing the best things about it, but he could be the best backer from this class looking back. At 8th overall, it’s hard to pass up that upside at a position that you can easily string together till he is ready. A true hybrid player, can cover, stuff the run and rush the quarterback. NFL draft will tell us everything, but I’m taking him here every time.
My Thoughts: I agree with Adam that the NFL draft should give us a good indication of how Smith should recover. We know now after the medical recheck that he will be essentially red shirting his rookie year. While this pick is dripping in risk, I think there is some value insulation here. We are in somewhat the same situation as Dante Fowler last year, and he has held his value well (currently ranked 14th DL in the DLF rankings). I would expect you could sell Smith late in the season for at least the price you paid.
1.09 – Shaq Lawson, Edge Clemson
Matt Price (@MPricer) thoughts: With Bosa and Buckner off the board, Lawson is the next best option at DE. He fits much better in a 4-3 so watch the landing spot. His combine results indicate he might be successful as a 3-4 OLB, but I would still prefer him to land on a predominately 4-3 team. His willingness to play the run as well should make him a coach favorite which could mean increased playing time early.
My Thoughts: As Matt points out Lawson does have some nice versatility,y although I think he would not fare well as three or five technique. His speed projects better for getting wide as 6/7 technique. I am not as high on Lawson as most but I understand the pick here especially when good defensive ends are always are to find. I think Lawson’s bookend is actually the better player, but we will talk more about that in the second round of this mock.
1.10 – Noah Spence, Edge Eastern Kentucky
Bruce Matson’s (@BMatz08) thoughts: He might be the best pass rusher in this draft. Off the field issues are a concern but the talent is worth the gamble. His value will increase if he gets selected by a team that uses him as a 4-3 defensive end. Solid 4-3 defensive ends that can consistently get to the quarterback are hard to find and if Spence lands in the right situation he could be one of the best defensive ends in the league.
My Thoughts: Spence did not perform as well as many expected at the combine. Spence really jumps off the tape but you have to question the level of competition that Eastern Kentucky is playing. I think Spence projects better as a stand up outside linebacker and I expect him to be gobbled up by a 3-4 scheme team. This could either be seen as a value pick or wasted pick depending on the team and scheme fit.
1.11 – Leonard Floyd, EDGE Georgia
Doug Green’s (@BigBoardIDP) thoughts: At this point of the draft, there are not a lot of three-down guys left on the board, but plenty of pass rushers. Floyd is one of the best pure rushers in this draft and if he lands in the right situation, Floyd has the ceiling to grow into a three-down role.
My Thoughts: Floyd is an athletic freak with the frame to carry a more muscle and weight. Georgia did a lot of things with him instead of just allowing him to get after quarterback. Floyd’s athleticism did not always show up on tape, but it did when his assignments were simple. Floyd needs to be allowed to pin his ears back and get after the quarterback. He projects most as wide nine technique Leo type or a stand up outside linebacker. Once again scheme fit could tank or prop up his value.
1.12 – Jatavis Brown, LB Akron
Bee’s (@IDPwithBEE_8o8) thoughts: Standout on tape, sound tackler and seems to be around the ball on every play. Has some lateral quickness, ability to drop back in coverage. I envision an every down LB in the making; he is glimpse of Lavonte David in my opinion. My buddy and I discussed, definitely a sleeper right now, stay on the lookout and stoked to have him at 1.12. He could play MLB/ILB or even move to WLB if needed, Giants – come get em!
My Thoughts: Bee is planting his flag a little early here, but there is a lot to like. Brown ripped off 4.47 forty at the regional combine. On tape he has a relentless motor with a nose for getting in the play. He has a little bit of an Eric Kendricks feel to his game due to his killer instinct once he gets near the ball carrier. My concerns are level of competition and his size at 6 feet and 220 pounds. On multiple occasions guards have completely eliminated him from plays when they get to the second level. He has the ability to shed these blocks, but he must consistently being using his entire tool belt to do it. This is a fun pick here and someone to watch on draft day.
That’s it for the first round. Any surprises in these first twelve? Who do you think will be the first few picks of the second round? We will be back soon with the second round.
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- IDP Dynasty Debate: Linebackers - March 1, 2017
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- IDP 20/20: Raekwon McMillan - February 17, 2017
