NFL Combine Correlations

Scott Peak

In the next installment of NFL Combine Correlations, we will examine the influence of combine metrics on the fantasy production for wide receivers during the 2015 season.

Here is a summary of methods used in this data collection:

  1. I recorded total fantasy points for the top 36 wide receivers (PPR scoring).
  1. For each player, I recorded their NFL Combine performance in the 40 yard dash, bench press, vertical, broad jump, shuttle and 3 cone drill.
  1. I grouped all 36 players into tiers 1, 2 and 3. Tier 1 would be the top performers in the combine drill, tier 2 would be middle-of-the-pack and tier 3 would be the worst performers in each drill.
  1. I recorded age for each tier to evaluate whether this could be a confounding variable.
  1. I recorded ADP from My Fantasy League.

Not all drills have 36 scores available as some athletes missed drills due to injury or other reasons.

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Table 1: 2014 Summary of Drills for Wide Receivers (Points per game)

table1

Table 1 shows the average points per game within each tier for the top 36 wide receivers in the 2014 season.

The most important drills to predict fantasy production for 2014 wide receivers were 40 yard dash, vertical, shuttle and 3 cone. Shuttle and 40 yard dash had the best separation in PPG, suggesting short area quickness and speed are important factors for wide receivers. Vertical leap is important and makes sense, given the need for wide receivers to make the catch at its highest point.

Let’s now compare this data to the 2015 season.

Table 2: 2015 40 yard dash

table2

In 2014, 40-yard dash appeared to favor tier 1 wide receivers, but not for the 2015 class. Notable 40-yard dash times include Hopkins at 4.57, Evans at 4.53, Brown at 4.56, Robinson at 4.60 and Landry at 4.65. Hopkins, Evans, Brown and Robinson are all top 10 wide receivers in dynasty, and Landry isn’t far behind. Despite being on the slow side of the 40-yard dash, they carry a lot of value in dynasty and are high-level producers. Keep that in mind if anyone criticizes Laquon Treadwell for his 4.63 40 yard dash.

Table 3: 2015 40-yard dash

table3

Tier 1 wide receivers were slightly more expensive, but not a huge difference in price. Still, could this be a reflection of a slight bias towards faster players on draft day? Solid values could be found in tier 3, although guys like James Jones and Randle aren’t valuable dynasty commodities. Snead and Hurns are undervalued relative to their production. Hurns had a 2015 ADP 151, and Snead wasn’t even drafted. Solid values can be found late in drafts or picked up on waivers, even if such players didn’t blaze a fast 40 yard dash.

Table 4: 2015 3 cone

table4

The 3 cone drill is correlated with fantasy production at wide receiver for two years in a row. Players like Baldwin, Edelman, Sanders and Cooks are examples of smaller, shifty wide receivers who can be productive with superior change of direction and agility. Hopkins makes up for lack of speed with better 3 cone performance. Julio Jones is an athletic freak, posting tier 1 scores in both 40 yard dash and 3 cone drills. Evans finished in tier 3 for both 40 yard yard dash and 3 cone, yet still is a high-level dynasty asset.

Table 5: 2015 3 cone

table5

Age is not a factor for this group, and ADP is similar for the first two tiers. Marvin Jones represents the best value in tier 1 with an ADP 133.

Table 6: 2015 Bench Press

table6

Bench press doesn’t appear to be important for wide receivers, as it has not correlated to fantasy production the past two years. There are several high-value dynasty assets with suboptimal bench press results, such as Brown, Evans, Beckham and Hilton. Feel free to disregard bench press when evaluating rookie wide receivers.

Table 7: 2015 Bench Press

table7

Tier 1 isn’t influenced by age as it has the oldest group of players in it. The most expensive group is tier 3, so clearly not a good value. Still, it seems unlikely that fantasy players are drafting talent based on bench press, so this is not likely a significant finding.

Table 8: 2015 Shuttle

table8

For 2015, shuttle drills produce inconsistent results. Tier 2 is the winner in this group. Tier 1 finished better than tier 3, but still not the best score. Hopkins and Watkins finished in tier 3 despite being high-value dynasty assets. Shuttle carried importance in 2014, while 2015 results are less clear. For players like Beckham, Cooper and Robinson, having a superior shuttle score is helpful but we can also find Watkins, Tate, Cobb, Hilton, Hopkins and Landry in tier 3. Shuttle time may be helpful but not as strong a predictor of fantasy production compared to other drills.

Table 9: 2015 Shuttle

table9

Much like running backs, older age groups seem to score more PPG. In tier 2, players like Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin, and Antonio Brown are all 27 or older. ADP is similar across the board.

Table 10: 2015 Broad jump

table10

Broad jump did not correlate to fantasy production for the second straight year. We can find many high-value players in all tiers, and some surprises. It seems reasonable to give much less weight to broad jump drill results when evaluating rookie wide receivers.

Table 11: 2015 Broad jump

table11

The oldest age group is in tier 1, but no difference in fantasy production. Tier 1 players had the highest ADP, indicating better value overall.

Table 12: 2015 Vertical

table12

Vertical leap does appear to influence fantasy production, as there is a separation between tiers 2 and 3. It is logical that vertical leap should influence fantasy production at the wide receiver position. There are several big names in tier 1, including Calvin Johnson, Robinson, Julio Jones, Beckham, Marshall and Evans. Notably, Evans had his best finish here, and other than a tier 2 performance in the shuttle, finished in tier 3 for all other available drills. Evans seems to be reliant on his jumping ability for fantasy production.

Table 13: 2015 Vertical

table13

No significant difference in age, although tier 1 players were slightly more expensive than tier 3. It’s understandable that ADP will be more costly in tier 1 with several big-name players here, and value was acceptable given noted high-level production.

Conclusion:

  1. Vertical leap and 3 cone are the clear winners for combine results in predicting fantasy production at wide receiver. Shuttle may help but is less influential compared to vertical leap and 3 cone.
  1. Bench press, broad jump and 40 yard dash do not appear to be predictive of fantasy production.
  1. The most significant difference in average PPG is 1 to 3 points.
  1. When evaluating rookies using combine drill results, 3 cone and vertical leap are the best indicators for future fantasy production.

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scott peak
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