Post Combine Rookie Mock: Round Three

Jacob Feldman

This is undoubtedly one of my favorite times of the rookie season. The combine is complete and the dust has settled a little bit. The pro days are underway and the NFL draft is approaching. It is only a matter of time before the rookie drafts start. It is also the time of year when every time I think I’ve made up my mind about my own rankings I see, hear, or read something which makes me go back to my original thoughts and either confirms them or makes me reconsider. I’m sure I’m not the only one! After all, if you’re reading this article right now you’re somewhere in the same process.

For this mock, we did three rounds with ten teams, so you’re getting a top 30 at this point in time. We assumed PPR scoring and traditional lineups (so not a 2QB or superflex league). In case you were concerned, don’t worry, as we get closer to the NFL draft and most rookie drafts, we will be switching to a 12 team format. All of the drafters were asked to give a brief intro to their selection, and I’ll be providing some additional thoughts on each one as well. Keep in mind it is very early in the process. There are going to be opinions shared in this mock which will completely change in the next few weeks and months. There will be players selected in the top 30 who go undrafted in most rookie drafts, and there might be some future first rounders we didn’t draft. It happens when you are doing things like this early, but that is a part of the fun!

If you missed the first round or the second round, make sure you check them out first. On to the last round of our mock.

3.01 – Michael Thomas, WR Southern Mississippi

Nick’s thoughts:  I almost took him at the 11th overall pick, so I’m euphoric he’s still on the board at pick #21! He wasn’t invited to the combine and it’s a travesty. Thomas was better than many of the receivers there, so he’s definitely flying under the radar right now. 6’1″ 197, he shows good ball skills and the ability to make big plays after the reception. On film, I see a player similar to Hakeem Nicks when he came out of North Carolina.

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My thoughts:  The “other” Mike Thomas was one of the bigger combine snubs this year. In my mind he was more deserving than at least half a dozen other receivers in this draft class who did get invited. Nothing we can do about that now. He’s a big play receiver as his 4.4 second time in the 40 yard dash and his 72/1391/14 statline last year can attest. He’s the sleeper everyone is going to be talking about this year, which means he isn’t a sleeper. The biggest knock against him aside from is the level of competition he played against. The question is if he’ll be able to continue his dominance in the NFL.

3.02 – Braxton Miller, WR Ohio St.

My thoughts:   If you’ve read any of my articles on rookies and mock drafts, you know that after the first 15-20 players in any draft class I start to talk about upside. Outside of that top group, the odds are stacked against you, so you might as well go after the players who have the biggest possible pay off instead of someone who might be a RB3 or a WR4 for your fantasy team. After all, there are always veterans on the waiver wire who can fill those roles in most leagues. When it comes to upside, it is hard to find someone with more potential than Braxton Miller.

He’s a very unique case going from Big Ten Player of the Year at the quarterback position to playing full time receiver during his time in college. He’s about as raw as you can get at the receiver position with some of the worst route running you’re ever going to see from a receiver entering the draft. However, he does have nice size at 6’1” and 201 pounds. He also ran a 4.36 second 40 yard dash at his pro day. Mix in a high football IQ and the fact that he’s super dangerous with the ball in his hands, and he’s bound to intrigue someone in the NFL. He’s going to be a few years away from fantasy relevance, but he’s a perfect taxi squad stash for a patient owner.

perkins3.03 – Paul Perkins, RB UCLA

Adam’s thoughts:   Rounding out the draft in the third round, things got a bit sketchy. I really like snagging Perkins here. He has the vision and the agility to make a sneaky impact in the NFL. If he was a bit bigger, he could easily be pushing for a top running back spot in this class. He catches the ball well and is decent in space. Not a player that’s going to break many tackles, but is extremely elusive. I see him as a strong flyer late, but could make a nice value flip with some opportunity. He can be a change of pace and a third down back that gives you rushing options.

My thoughts:   Perkins is a mover and a shaker at the running back position. In fact, he was the top running back in college in terms of ProFootballFocus’s elusive rating. He makes defenders miss all over the field, both in the open field and in the hole. Where he is lacking is size and power. He’s under 200 pounds, which is never good for a running back. Then again, he is almost identical in size to Jamaal Charles. Unfortunately he doesn’t generate the same kind of force Charles does from their smaller frames. If a defender can get a hold of him, which is a big if, Perkins is going down. He’s going to need to work on his strength to be more than a change of pace option.

3.04 – Keith Marshall, RB Georgia

Austan’s thoughts:   I really like Marshall, rating him as my fifth-ranked back in this class. A former top recruit, Marshall has the talent, but an ACL injury and longer-than-usual recovery kept him from fulfilling his potential at Georgia. He had a superb freshman season (6.5 YPC, nine total scores), but he was used sparingly thereafter as Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb topped the depth chart. He can flat out fly, as proven by his 4.31 40-yard dash (at 219 pounds) at the combine, and his knee reportedly checked out well in the medical process. Marshall is a natural pass catcher who runs a little tentative for my liking, but with just 136 combined carries over his final three years, he didn’t get a ton of game reps to regain his feel for the position. This pick is all about upside. It could be a swing and miss or a two-run jack.

My thoughts:   Marshall is a huge homerun threat at the running back position and one of the leaders in “speed score” for this year’s class. He reminds me a little bit of Tevin Coleman, but with a more severe injury history. Marshall is sometimes indecisive and lacks agility when moving at top speed, much like Coleman. Marshall also has some balance issues, which might be a part of this. There is no denying the speed though, which makes him an intriguing upside pick.

3.05 – Jared Goff, QB California

George’s thoughts:   Well, I wasn’t expecting this. The only quarterback I consider a second round rookie value slips just enough for me to snap up in the third. Like Sharpe in round two, Goff is being penalized for smaller hands (9 inches). However, much like Sharpe, it has done nothing to hamper his game. He looked exceptional during combine throwing drills and has shown improvements across the board statistically in his college career. If he is waiting for you here, do not overthink it. Goff to San Francisco has been most frequently mocked and he could be a great fit in Chip Kelly’s scheme.

My thoughts:  In your standard 12 team leagues which are not superflex or 2QB leagues, I’m very anti-quarterback in rookie drafts unless there is an exceptional talent. There isn’t an exceptional talent this year, but I can’t fault anyone for taking the first quarterback off the board with the 25th pick in the draft. At this point they are actually a great value. I don’t think Goff nor Wentz belong anywhere in the top 15-20 picks in this rookie draft, but both of them could turn into top 15 quarterbacks in the NFL making them well worth a pick outside the top 20.

3.06 – Thomas Duarte, WR/TE UCLA

Harrison’s thoughts:   Thomas Duarte is my late round flier that I’ve kind of come to love. He has elite size (6’3”, 223) and it is believed that he will enter the draft as a TE.  He was a top performer in all athletic drills done at the combine. He excels in crossing routes and seam routes where he displays his explosiveness and his monster catch radius, but that may be the only part of his game that he excels at. However, his broad jump may have been the best broad jump in recent history by a WR or TE (11’8”). For those wondering, Calvin Johnson and Chris Conley had the best broad jump result in the past decade of 11’7”.  At only 20 years old, he’s a prime example of late round draft pick that you should take a flier on.

My thoughts:  Duarte is an interesting player because he is stuck between two positions. I don’t think he’s fast enough to play in the league as a receiver, and at his current size he’s a little too small to play as a tight end. I think his best chance is to add about 15-20 pounds of muscle and become a move tight end in the NFL. His age makes me optimistic he can do this since he should still be filling out a little bit. He’s an effective route runner with solid hands and nice athleticism. He just needs to get a little stronger to handle occasional blocking duties and the physical style of the linebackers and safeties who will be covering him.

3.07 – Kenyan Drake, RB Alabamadrake

Kevin’s thoughts:   Kenyon Drake is a dynamic runner who uses his speed and agility to overcome an inability to fight through contact. As a receiver, he is a good runner after the catch and can be a real threat in the passing game. His contributions on special teams at Alabama could be appealing to an NFL team looking for a depth running back and play on both coverage and return units. I could see him joining the Texans and provide much needed help at running back and in the return game. His dynasty football appeal might be longer term than immediate production and would be a solid consideration in the third round of rookie drafts.

My thoughts: I’m not sold on Drake, largely because I’m not sure how he makes my fantasy roster better. He has decent size and is elusive, but he seems to lack the patience and instincts you need at the next level. He tends to bounce runs to the outside because he can’t see the holes developing. In the NFL that will get him run down from behind for a lot of 2 and 3 yard losses. I don’t see him getting enough touches to be fantasy relevant, and when you mix in the extensive injury history I’m looking elsewhere.

3.08 – Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State

Rob’s thoughts:   Unlike most rookie mocks which I bungle, I am extremely happy with the results of this one.  While I am not huge on quarterbacks in start one formats, nabbing a high first round pick like Carson Wentz is a better investment than flyers at other positions as I see it.  I don’t see high first type of talent when I watch him but it is likely it is where he ends up, and it will lead to immense opportunity both early and long-term.  In the late third, I like the value.

My thoughts:  Wentz is a great value at this point in the draft. Of the two quarterbacks, Wentz is likely to struggle more early on but has the higher upside. In a one quarterback fantasy league, I’m more likely to go after the upside on the chance he might turn into a solid QB1 for my team in a few years. If that’s the case, he was well worth a pick in the late second or in this case the third round of my rookie draft. If he doesn’t pan out, it was a small price to pay.

3.09 – Wendell Smallwood, RB West Virginia

Coinflip’s thoughts:   At this spot late in the draft I wanted a running back that has ability to catch passes in the NFL.  He caught 54 passes his last two season at West Virginia.  He has good speed and although he likely should’ve returned for his final season at West Virginia his over 1500 yards in the Big12 Conference was impressive.  He isn’t an early pick by any means, but when you get to the 3rd and 4th rounds he would be a solid pick at that point.

My thoughts:  Some might compare Smallwood to his former teammate, Charles Sims, but that isn’t completely accurate.  First off, Smallwood isn’t as athletic as Sims nor is he as dynamic with the ball in his hands. That isn’t to say Smallwood lacks those things, it just isn’t at the same level. He is a little more of a punishing rusher who prefers to run through people instead of going around them.  I think he’s more of a committee back in the NFL or a career backup.

3.10 – Josh Ferguson, RB Illinois

Izzy’s thoughts:   Josh Ferguson is a guy that’s being vastly overlooked and I’d draft him ahead of every single one of the guys drafted above him in this mock. I debated between Ferguson and Malcolm Mitchell, but ultimately sided with a potential PPR machine. His explosiveness, agility and footwork is second to none in the class and should easily carve out a Theo Riddick type role at the very least. He reminds of CJ Spiller both from a pros and cons perspective. That said, Ferguson is a better receiver out of the backfield and is better in pass protection. If anyone had the chance to see the Illinois offense with and without Ferguson (when he missed time with a shoulder injury), they’d be amazed at how important he was to that offense. End of the third round could end up very well being highway robbery.

My thoughts:  One of the quickest and most sudden running backs in this year’s draft class, Ferguson is a lot of fun to watch. He puts together combinations of cuts, spins, and jukes you are more likely to see in a Madden game than a real game. With that said, his size is likely to limit his role in the offense. If he gets too many touches he is going to break down, but if he is used just right he is going to be dynamic. Unfortunately, this means he is likely to be much more valuable to an NFL team than a fantasy team, but his value could soar in best ball formats.

That’s it for this mock draft. We’ll be back around the NFL draft with another detailed mock. In the meantime, make sure you are watching out ADP and rankings for the most up to date information on the rookie class.

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jacob feldman