Rookie Profile – Braxton Miller, WR Ohio State

Eric Burtzlaff Posted On April 1, 2016

I have a confession to make, I wanted to study Braxton Miller for this article because of the hurt that he put on my Virginia Tech Hokies in the season opener last year. On top of that, I knew virtually nothing about Miller prior to studying his film and measurables for research on this piece. I only knew that he has pedigree.

A little history about Miller first. He was a five star recruit quarterback by Ohio State in 2011. He became the starter in the 4^th game of his college career. He was the starter until a shoulder injury in the 2014 preseason put him on the bench (redshirt due to injury). The Buckeyes got an opportunity to see what they had in J.T. Barrett and ultimately, Cardale Jones. Jones went on to win a national championship in 2014 and Miller had lost his starter status.

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In the 2015 off-season, it was announced that Miller would be making a position switch to wide receiver. His coach, Urban Meyer, pushed for this move to maximize his talent on the field. This decisions by Miller impressed me. He was a five-star recruited QB playing for a national championship team and was able to swallow his ego and be a team player.

He played all of 2015 learning the wide receiver position. He had his fair share of flashes and poor decision making. Miller is going to be an NFL project player. He has a very limited route tree, which is to be expected. He seemed to rely exclusively on his superior athleticism to win at the point of the catch and after the catch. In watching his tape, I saw a player oozing with potential.

Miller is fully expected to be drafted by the 3^rd round with many projecting him to a team in the 2^nd.He is also currently being drafted in rookie startups in the early 2^nd round. That’s a little early for my taste until I see an NFL team take a shot on him early but I understand the allure.

Let’s dive into his metrics:

braxton_profiler

Courtesy of www.playerprofiler.com

Miller checks a ton of the first boxes for me. He has size, speed and silly agility. He doesn’t fall flat anywhere in his metrics but he also didn’t walk out of the Combine with buzz. His performance (while good) was less electric than the community was hoping to see. Miller himself said he was going to run a 4.2 prior to the combine. Not the best judgement call, Braxton. If Miller had announced “It’s not going to be my best day out there, so don’t be too disappointed” and then went and ran a 4.5, we’d have a different take. Miller’s limited tape looks far more electric than his measurables indicate, but the numbers don’t lie either. I was personally expecting him to blow the combine away and am still a little shocked his measurables come off so average.

Miller should have a leg up on his competition in the NFL from an athleticism standpoint but I don’t think he’s not going to be able to prop his stats up on it like he did in college. I view Miller as a terrific utility-knife player for an NFL team while he gets his legs under him learning his position. I do have some serious concerns, however. It’s been proven time and time again, if a player can’t run routes or catch the football, he will be out of the league in no time, or be returning kicks until the end of time. If you saw the juke move Miller put on the Hokies, you know that he could be dangerous there.

His comparisons are also uninspiring. Greg Salas and Jerricho Cotchery are the type of players that are sitting on the dynasty waiver wire.

In general, I’ve walked away from my research wanting no part of Miller’s early second-round dynasty stock. If his name was anything else and he didn’t play on a national stage for 3 years, I have a feeling we’d be taking 3^rd– 4^th round filers on the guy. He’s got pedigree and athleticism, but overall he’s as raw as Cordarrelle Patterson.

I’ve chosen the VT game to highlight Miller’s upside. This was a nationally televised game against a top NCAA defense. Let’s take a look:

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It doesn’t take very long to see the upside that Miller brings to the table. He is excellent in the wildcat, he has insane body control, and his spin move is truly something out of a video game. It was very clear to me that Bud Foster, VT’s defensive coach, didn’t have an answer for Miller along with the rest of the Ohio State (future) NFL squad. After this game, Miller went on to essentially do nothing for the rest of the season. He showed poor ball security and an inability to do anything other than short, gimmick and go routes.

Summary:

If you draft Miller in your dynasty draft, he will be an NFL project and a dynasty project. Likely, you will need to camp on him for 2+ years before he provides you with any production. For this reason, I’d highly recommend staying away if you don’t have the roster spot. He will be a drop in the middle of the second year if your rosters aren’t deep enough.

It isn’t necessarily Miller’s fault. He started learning a new position last year and is now expected to understand it on an expert level and physically dominate his competition. Terrell Pryor is an all too similar example from the same school. He is still in the league but he certainly hasn’t panned out yet.

If you have the roster space and can afford a bust of a draft pick on your roster, Miller might be your guy. If you have those things and want to take Miller in the early second, I implore you to pass regardless. Miller strikes me as a better NFL player than dynasty player. He’s also one that you will have to wait on.

Miller is on my draft board in the early third. If you want him before then, my recommendation is to pass.

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