Instant Analysis: Land of Os
Per Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com, Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans have agreed to a four year $72 million deal.
A largely unproven quarterback, Brock will begin his first NFL off-season with bigger intentions other than just holding the clipboard for Peyton Manning. With the kind of money they are paying him, there is no doubt that this will be the year that Brock officially gets his opportunity to be “the guy.” But, what does that mean for him in terms of fantasy appeal?
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What we know about the Texans last year is that it was a carousel of sorts in terms of signal callers. Out of the combination of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden, the ball boy, a jock strap, and a half eaten turkey sandwich, they are collectively at their very best, pedestrian fantasy quarterbacks. But what you probably didn’t know, is that the combined stats of the four guys that were under center for the Texans threw for 4,051 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Now those numbers really aren’t that of a QB1, but they are mid-level QB2 stats. Those numbers should present what I believe is Osweiler’s floor, assuming he stays healthy for an entire season and can play up to the level of the aforementioned quarterbacks.
For comparison sake, I have been tracking the Osweiler revelation for quite some time. His value will be all over the map over the coming months, but this news no doubt will raise his “market” value at least a little bit. In our February ADP’s, Brock was coming off the board around QB25, or 226.83 ADP. I would expect this news to raise his “market” value up to the tier around Teddy Bridgewater, Matthew Stafford, and Ryan Tannehill, which is a range of QB17 to QB19, or roughly 180-185 ADP.
I am going to go a bit more in depth on my personal feelings of Brock Osweiler in the coming weeks of my series, Superflex 101. But, I think now is the time to test the waters on acquiring Brock as a really cheap option in a 1QB league. In a 2QB league, I would expect him to definitely be more expensive, but a mid to late first should still get a deal done to acquire him right now. My feeling is that the risk is definitely worth the reward. The best comparison for this situation that I see is when Aaron Rodgers took over the reins from Brett Favre. I was hoping Brock would get the same opportunity to stick with the team that helped groom him, but nonetheless, this is his big shot and he does have some solid weapons to work with. I realize to expect Osweiler to match Rodgers production is asking quite a bit. But the upside is still there, and I’m hoping he can develop into a consistent QB1 for your team.
Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett/T.J. Yates/Brandon Weeden
You don’t need me to tell you this, but it’s still relevant. Drop all of them, there is no sense keeping them on any roster, even in a 2QB league. If, and only if, Osweiler were to get injured will any of them potentially be fantasy relevant. But your bench spots are better spent on other options.
Texans Running Game
As of this writing, it has been reported that Lamar Miller will be joining the Houston Texans as well. Brock Osweiler presents a better option than what the Texans rolled out at quarterback last year, so this should only help the running game. Along with aiding the running game, Brock targets his running backs a fair amount in the passing game, which could lead to 60-70 receptions for Lamar Miller. The University of Miami alum is primed and ready for his best season as a pro.
He’s already a stud, he’s going to get his targets and receptions regardless. What the Osweiler signing does though, is provide some stability and consistency that Hopkins needs to elevate his game even higher. Sure, you would love to see a proven quarterback come in and know that he will take the reins of this offense. But, at a minimum Brock will be as good as anything else the Texans had slinging balls last season. As great of a season as Hopkins had, his yards per reception actually went down. With Brock’s arm strength and Hopkins ability, we could see a few more big plays which could elevate Hopkins to an even higher yardage and touchdown total in 2016.
The Rest Of The Texans Receivers
With the arrest of Jaelen Strong and likely suspension, the Texans receiving committee beyond DeAndre Hopkins is a bit murky. I would expect them to draft another wide receiver prospect in this year’s draft. Several early mock drafts had the Texans going quarterback or running back, but obviously with this signing, and the addition of Miller, I would expect the Texans to add another receiver within the first two rounds of the NFL draft.
The Denver Passing Game
I wouldn’t make any brash decisions on any Denver player until we know who their next quarterback will be. Furthermore, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are talented enough to put up solid numbers regardless of their quarterback. It’s looking like Ryan Fitzpatrick may be the Bronco’s backup plan, at least for 2016 anyway. I would expect them to draft another quarterback to groom, but if they did bring in Fitzpatrick, the Mile-High offense wouldn’t skip a beat in comparison to what they would have had with Osweiler stepping in. Also, as great as Peyton Manning was over his career, he was a shell of his former self this past season. If this news gives any form of a potential buy low opportunity with your leagues due to the uncertainty of the Denver quarterback situation, now is the time to acquire the services of the top two wide outs in Denver.
While it may have been a more comfortable transition in being named the starter in Denver, Osweiler got paid and that’s all there is to it. I think the Texans benefit most from this signing, and are putting together a nice young offense that could be good for a long time if Osweiler has what it takes to produce as a full-time starter.
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