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Weekly Twitter Observations

Luke Wetta Posted On March 5, 2016
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Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.

Quarterback Values

This is a good quote from DLF’s Ryan McDowell for a number of reasons. One, you should always be aware of recent trends in strategy, rankings or drafting. You do not necessarily have to agree with the trends, but knowing where you can find value based on your own evaluations and rankings is imperative. If everyone is picking up quarterbacks in the fifth as Ryan is seeing, there is no reason to reach for Cam Newton in the second. Looking at early January and February ADPs on the DLF site, Andrew Luck fell ten spots overall from 25 to 35 in one month, Aaron Rodgers dropped ten from 37 to 47, and the aforementioned Newton slipped slightly from 29 to 34 overall. As the late round quarterback strategy has migrated over from the standard formats, you can expect quarterbacks to continue to slip. Working against trends can be advantageous as well, and elite level signal callers can be the cornerstone of a solid team for years.

Sam Bradford, QB PHI

Speaking of quarterbacks, the Philadelphia Eagles re-signed Sam Bradford this week on a short term deal. The deal appears like a good approach for both parties as the Eagles are tied up only for the immediate term and Bradford would not have commanded long-term big money after his 2015 campaign. For fantasy purposes it is unlikely you will see anyone rank him within the top 24 at the position and the early ADP data in 2016 backs up this opinion. What I have found interesting is that you can find multiple people on either side of the Bradford fence as seen below.

While his offensive line and running game never did him too many favors, in the end you still have a player that tossed multiple touchdowns only four out of fourteen games last season. Bradford also will never give you anything in the running game where more and more quarterbacks are increasing their relative floors. Chip Kelly has moved west, so Bradford will likely have to make more out of fewer opportunities. In the end I am unable to see him as anything more than a bye week fill-in, but if owners are willing to pay up for the newly minted quarterback deal away.

Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, TEs IND

The Indianapolis Colts find themselves in a difficult spot this off-season with both of their talented tight ends, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, unrestricted free agents. DLF’s Jeff Miller highlighted recent draft and rankings trends regarding these two, tweeting:

It has been somewhat difficult to parse all the reports regarding the pair, but the one consistent point has been that both players are not expected to be re-signed. Jeff clearly believes that Fleener will be the one returning to catch passes from Andrew Luck and I would tend to agree as well. Allen has voiced his displeasure with his usage in 2015 mainly being utilized as a sixth blocker on the offensive line. While Fleener has not been counted on as much to block he has been fairly consistent in terms of receiving output. He has caught between 51 and 54 passes the last three seasons and the loss of Luck last year likely contributed to his dip in total yards. Dwayne produced a great season in 2014 catching eight touchdowns on only 29 receptions, but most seem to forget Coby also grabbed eight scores that year. From a health standpoint there also is no comparison as Allen has missed three games each of the last two years and most of the 2013 campaign while Fleener has been in the lineup for every game over the same period.

Of course, if Allen is no longer a Colt, his next landing spot will be very important in regards to his fantasy value. New England has been speculated as a potential destination, but I feel like mentioning tight ends with the Patriots is the same as stating all free agent running backs will end up in Dallas. Dwayne has still said he hopes to remain in Indianapolis and recent articles suggest the team and Fleener are also not close yet on signing an extension so there is definitely uncertainty remaining. If Coby does in fact remain a Colt you have to like his upside moving forward for the foreseeable future. He will have one of the best passers in the league and his potential for 700-800 yards and another eight scores would seem very doable, which would land him back at the low end TE1 conversation.

Eddie Lacy, RB GB

The 2015 season was frustrating to say the least for Eddie Lacy’s fantasy owners. Roller coaster production made it difficult to guess when he would be fully utilized. Even worse was the fact that a strong performance was never a guarantee for the following week. Lacy was also sharing time with James Starks and his head coach called him a fatty at the end of the season. A recent tweet from Rich Hribar caught my attention when he was responding to a recent trade involving Lacy.

The trade involved one owner receiving Eddie for Davante Adams, Jace Amaro and a 2017 third round pick. I like the Lacy part of this deal myself especially after seeing the newly lighter version of Lacy surface this week. It appears Eddie took Mike McCarthy’s words to heart and if some harsh criticism was not enough, Lacy is playing for a new contract in 2016. The motivation of money more than anything should be pushing Lacy to perform at peak levels. The main point to make as well from Rich’s comment is that you should never stop gauging the value other owners place on players. Lacy’s current ADP and average rankings appear in line with my general expectations. But even looking at the DLF individual rankings you find Lacy valued anywhere between fourth and seventeenth overall at the running back position. I am willing to write off 2015 and look to acquire a proven runner with touchdown upside and believe he will bounce back to RB1 levels in 2016.

Running Back Combine Results Analysis

I wanted to share Kevin’s analysis on running backs and combine results from last week. This was a great read from another solid fantasy source, RotoViz, outside of the tireless efforts at DLF. Even for those readers who do not look to digest every metric for every player from the NFL combine, this series still deserves a read.

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