20/20: Ezekiel Elliott
Welcome to 20/20. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine later this month, we’ll be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2016 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player Name — Ezekiel Elliott
2.) College — Ohio State
3.) Height/Weight — 6-foot-1, 225 lbs.
4.) Birth date — 7/22/1995.
5.) Class — Junior.
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6.) Basic college stats —
2015 – 289 carries 1,821 yards 6.3 YPC 23 TD, 27 receptions 206 yards 7.6 YPR 0 TD
2014 – 273 carries 1,878 yards 6.9 YPC 18 TD, 28 receptions 220 yards 7.9 YPR 0 TD
2013 – 30 carries 262 yards 8.7 YPC 2 TD, 3 receptions 23 yards 7.7 YPR 1 TD
7.) NFL Draft round projection — Day 1. Elliott is most likely to be a first round NFL Draft pick. It’s possible he goes in the top 15 NFL Draft picks, but he will go in the first round.
8.) Current NFL comp — Frank Gore. Elliott is a very well rounded RB just like Gore. He may not be elite in any one area, he’s good in most areas.
9.) Best possible destination — Indianapolis Colts. Pairing up for the next five years with Andrew Luck would be amazing for Elliott’s career. No stacked boxes and plenty of red zone opportunities. Plus Luck needs Elliott’s good pass protection skills to stay upright. I know everyone wanted me to say Dallas. Even Elliott likes the idea of the Cowboys, indicating they would be his preferred destination.
10.) Worst possible destination — Cincinnati Bengals. While the Bengals offense would fit Elliott perfectly, they already have Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. It would likely be a big committee and not as good for fantasy prospects.
11.) Best current skill — Balance. Elliott is always running under control, which helps him gain so many yards after contact. He can make quick cuts at any time to find a hole or make a defender miss. When defenders make contact with him, he maintains his balance and shows very good ability to add additional yardage or make big plays.
If I could add another top “skill” for Elliott, it would be he has very little weaknesses to his game. He’s such a well-rounded player, it’s hard to imagine him being anything but a good NFL RB. Elliott possesses good feet, quickness, balance, vision, agility, speed, hands, blocking, and power.
12.) Skill that needs to be improved — Speed. Elliott possesses good speed in the 4.5 range for a 40-yard dash, but it would be nice if he could improve into the mid 4.4 range. Many times on long runs he would barely outrace defenders down the field. I didn’t know if he was exhausted from all the carries or he doesn’t have the speed in the tank.
13.) Past/current rookie ADP — 2nd overall in the February through November rookie ADP and 1st overall in the October rookie ADP. 29th overall in the February ADP for all players.
14.) Projected dynasty value — Elliott is an RB1 for fantasy purposes the first day he steps foot onto the field. He will instantly be the starter for an NFL team and should get the amount of touches necessary to be an RB1. His ability makes him a three-down running back, which gives a big bonus to PPR leagues. Elliott has the upside to be a top-5 dynasty running back, but will probably live in the 8-15 range for most of his NFL career. High floor type of player.
15.) Ageist’s rejoice! — He doesn’t turn 21 until July 22nd, which potentially adds more years to his NFL career. Considering his development and skill at the age 20, it’s possible he improves more than the average rookie RB. Improvement could happen both in football skills, physical growth, and athletic traits.
16.) High School Champion — Elliott won four state track championships his senior year in the 100 meter, 200 meter, 110 meter high hurdles, and 300 meter high hurdles. Oh you thought this was going to be about football? They were the state runner-up for three consecutive seasons in football with Gus Frerotte as his head coach.
17.) Magical run to a National Championship — Elliott went “beast mode” in 2014, carrying Ohio State to a National Championship. The last three games of the season were the Big Ten Championship, the National Championship Semifinal and the BCS National Championship. Elliott ran for 696 yards on 76 carries averaging 9.15 yards per carry including 8 touchdowns. Those are incredible numbers against any competition. Then add in the context that they were the most important games of his career and it makes it even more impressive.
18.) Production — Elliott’s impressive production goes beyond the three game stretch to end 2014. During the 2015 season, he ran for 100 yards or more in every game but one. Over his final two seasons in Columbus, Elliott ran for over 100 yards in every game he received 13 carries or more. This is some pretty conclusive evidence to Elliott being a workhorse RB.
19.) Trouble in Paradise? — The only loss for Ohio State in 2015 was against Michigan State late in the season. Elliott only had 12 total touches the entire game and was critical of coaches after the game. Up until that point, Elliott had been a model citizen in his career. Is this a cause for concern? Is Elliott coachable? Will he be okay if he doesn’t receive a lot of touches in the NFL? He declared for the NFL Draft prior to the bowl game. I’m hoping that was going to happen either way and not a sign of his frustration at Ohio State.
20.) High Floor — Decorated college career. Elliott was the MVP of the National Championship game, running back of the year, and unanimous first team Big 10. I already discussed he has little weaknesses to his game. Elliott is as close to a sure thing at the RB position as you’re going to find and it creates a high floor for his NFL career. Don’t overthink Elliott, he good.
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Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
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