2016 NFL Draft – First Look: Wide Receivers

Jeff Haverlack Posted On February 22, 2016

Welcome to part three of my “First Look” series. In part one we took a look at the relatively weak running back class. In week two, we turned our attention to the somewhat mediocre, but with upside, quarterback class. Now we get into the ‘meat’ of the 2016 rookies – the wide receivers.

As mentioned in part one, the receiver position is now squarely in focus in fantasy circles. The constant rotation of running backs in NFL backfields has left a fantasy wasteland of sorts at the position outside of the few remaining top backs. With many teams now utilizing three, and sometimes even four, running backs in very specific roles, what is a fantasy coach to do? The obvious answer is to diminish his or her reliance on the running back position and, instead, covet the production and potential career length of viable receivers. With recent draft success exhibited by NFL teams in the first round, and sometimes extending into the second round, the position isn’t as high risk as it once was.

The receivers are trending bigger and faster as the years pass and with better odds of success during draft time, it’s more of a risk-off scenario than it was in the previous decade.
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2016

To be sure, 2016 does not intrigue me nearly as much as years 2013, 2014 and 2015. Once again, size of the class is notable but I just see too many question marks to be heavily investing the draft picks to spend on these young players. There is upside, however, and the benefit here is in the fact that without a clear 1.03 selection, depending on taste and Combine numbers, some good receivers are going to fall. There aren’t many classes where I can say that I wouldn’t be surprised if the seventh or eight player within the position forecasts as well as the second. This is what we have in 2016 in my estimation.

Let’s rapid fire some of these receivers as we bide our time until the Combine:

Laquon Treadwell
Ole Miss
6’2/201 lbs.

Not going to waste your time here with a lot of fluff or useless information. Treadwell was my top prospect on the board for 2016 since before his lower leg injury in 2014. He’ll rank as my first overall prospect from this draft class easily and I like most of what he has to offer in the mold of other large receivers. I primarily question two aspects of Treadwell’s play that could decrease his ceiling in the NFL: 1) Speed 2) Separation Ability.

He’s more of a loping player and I question whether he’ll be able to use his speed to gain an advantage as he stems his routes. After the catch, he’ll be fine but won’t run away from the secondary. Related to this speed, his separation ability is questionable and he doesn’t show the burst or footwork that will provide a consistent catch-cushion. He’s physically imposing with great hands and think this may have made him a bit lazy at the collegiate level. He’s a smart and driven player and I believe he has the potential to become much better in both aspects at the next level.

Josh Doctson
TCU
6’2/195 lbs.

Has that “IT” factor that I like in my receivers. Many are parroting the concerns about his thin frame but his foundation below the waist is better than advertised. He’s a natural hands-catcher and shows the ability to extend to snatch incoming passes from nearly any angle. He’s a great leaper and his speed, while not elite, is plenty good enough to provide for opportunities after the catch. He’s got great character and has an inner-fire for getting better. Uses his body and his length well at the point of reception.

On the negative side, working within a spread offense, he’s an immature route runner and he’ll be challenged early in his career in this area. He’ll also be challenged with bigger-stronger cornerbacks in the NFL and will face jams off the line until he gets stronger and more accomplished.

Many will place Doctson much lower in their rankings but I feel he’s got significant upside and, aside from his strength and weight, he possesses enough to provide for a very high ceiling.

Michael Thomas
Ohio State
6’3/210 lbs.

Already it gets tricky to start ranking these prospects. While many will prefer Corey Coleman here, I’ll stick with my preference for bigger body receivers that show prototypical wide-receiver-one attributes. Thomas will not wow anyone with his long speed but he possesses strong hands, the ability to snatch the ball well can win in contested catch situations. I’d like to see more consistent hand catching as he can sometimes tend to get lazy at extension to the ball and he’s not a pure leaper, even with his size. He’s got good feet, size and the hands to make noise at the next level.

Wasn’t over-the-top productive for the Buckeyes but saw consistent production notching nine touchdowns in each of his last two years. Comparison wise, he reminds me a lot of Michael Floyd. I struggle to see him knocking down a WR1-role in the NFL but he’s got the frame and ability to challenge for just that. I don’t possess any run-away excitement for Thomas which is a problem in my mind. He strikes me much the same way that both Floyd and Rueben Randle did as rookies.

Corey Coleman
Baylor
5’10/190 lbs.

Coleman has created a buzz for him self heading into the NFL Combine.

His size is his only significant drawback in the physicality department, but with what he gives up in this area, he makes up for in speed and separation ability. Some of have lauded his hand catching ability but he seems much more natural at allowing the ball into his torso. He does show the ability to snatch but doesn’t consistently extend-and-snatch. His production over his past two seasons was stellar but many of his yards and catches come on simplistic routes such as deep/shallow slants and “go” routes. He consistently beats cornerbacks to haul in easy over the shoulder receptions for touchdowns. These catches won’t often be available in the NFL.

With the ball in or out of his hand, he shows plus-agility and significant change of direction skills, leading to creating consistent separation. Baylor hasn’t been challenged in their schedule and their quirky offense does raise flags as he transitions to the NFL. If he’s the next Steve Smith or Antonio Brown, he’ll be a huge hit obviously but I’m not willing to hang that label on him until after I see it in the NFL – which presents a problem for rookie drafts. This to say that I’ll likely not be risking a selection on Coleman unless he were to fall to later in the first round.

Tyler Boyd
6’2/200 lbs.
Pittsburgh

My next two receivers are neck and neck in my rankings. I’m giving the edge to Boyd here due to his size, speed and, especially, his amazing hand-eye coordination that he uses to track and secure the ball coming from almost any angle. He was not as productive as Will Fuller below him but Pitt had continuing quarterback issues and Boyd played for three different ones over his last three years, being productive all three years. What separates him is his speed and acceleration to top speed. He was also active in the rushing game and, in fact, carried the ball 40 times in his last season. His instincts and speed with the ball in his hands are very visible on film.

His route tree is weak but he did show the ability to stick his routes well, stemming them at appropriate times to create separation. His quick feet allow him to break jams off the line which bodes well for the next level. When watching film, I find myself consistently likening him to Torrey Smith or a more athletic Jarvis Landry. He’s got great hands, leaping ability and almost uncanny tracking skills. Watch the character flags here.

Will Fuller
Notre Dame
6’0/184 lbs.

As mentioned above, I see a lot of similarities in both Boyd and Fuller. While I ultimately believe Boyd is more well rounded and gritty as a receiver, Fuller was more productive in his final two years. He doesn’t appear as fast but possesses many of the same skills.

On the negative side, I feel Fuller could find himself a bit one-dimensional in the pro game, similar to the aforementioned Torrey Smith. He doesn’t have the size that presents a lot of intrigue so he’ll need to bring plus-speed and be drafted into a system that allows him to contribute as the off-receiver. He’s the type of player that will be very difficult to rank ahead of determining his draft situation in the NFL. He reminds me a bit of Buffalo receiver, Robert Woods. He’s on the rise as we approach the Combine but I’m not drinking the Kool-aid yet.

Sterling Shepard
Oklahoma
5’10/193

A relatively thick 193 for his 5’10” frame yet he still shows good quickness off the line of scrimmage to avoid jams and create space. Gets to top speed quickly and explodes angularly out of breaks to open up a cushion. Shows good ability to extend toward throws and hand catches well, as opposed to letting the ball into his body too often. Shows great field awareness and the ability to find soft areas within zones, or to explode laterally into space. Didn’t show a ton of leaping ability but seems to have the capability. Does a lot of his damage across the field on drag routes and slants, utilizing his speed off the line of scrimmage to gain separation.

Not a very effective blocker and needs to show more anticipation and use of his body. Seems to be quicker than fast but this is not to say that he’s slow. At the next level, he’ll have to show continued ability to break jams and get over the top. Hand size could be an issue and I’ll be watching for this measurement during the Combine. Seems to be rising on boards prior to the Combine.

Pharao Cooper
South Carolina
5’11/205

There’s a lot to like about Cooper and his ceiling is as high as anyone’s in this class. His dynamic with the ball in his hands is undeniable as is his natural hand-catching ability on the move. Every draft has a receiver that could double as a running back and Cooper is this year’s entry. Averaging 24 rushes each of his three years, he has natural instincts and shows power through first contact. He’s extremely fluid, especially angularly and reaches top speed very quickly. He’s got a thick lower base and a low center of gravity making for a difficult tackle. He tracks the ball well over both shoulders as well as he does extend to secure a throw in front of him.

Seems raw as a receiver in his route tree and sometimes is lazy out of his breaks. I’m curious to see his leaping ability and his long speed. With the ball in his hands, he shows a tendency to not adequately secure it, something that will need to be corrected in the NFL. He’s been compared to Randall Cobb, a comparison I don’t share.

Heading into the Combine, Cooper is the player that I believe could well outplay his drafted position. I can’t help but see a larger version of Baltimore’s Steve Smith when I watch him play, he’s got the same edge and chip on his shoulder in all phases of his game.

Leonte Carroo
Rutgers
6’0/210 lbs.

Well rounded receiver who plays bigger than his 6’0″ would suggest. Strength player who plays well over his hips and has surprising speed given his body mass. Well defined body and shows strong hands and the ability to extend for the catch. Appears to be strong off the line of scrimmage, has better than fair speed at all levels and has shown the ability to run a full route tree. Caught 10 touchdowns in back to back seasons to close out his collegiate career.

The biggest flag with Carroo is his questionable behavioral baggage. Was suspended after an alleged assault incident in 2015 involving a woman. Incidents have been few however and he shows plus-agility and route running to intrigue NFL coaches. I’ll be watching his speed and quickness drills closely during the NFL Combine. I’d like to see Carroo drop to the end of the second round in fantasy drafts where I think he’ll represent a fine high-ceiling bargain. If he’s accountable to his past issues this week in interviews and keeps his nose clean, he’ll be a player to watch.

Braxton Miller
Ohio State
6’2/204

Here’s the wildcard for the 2016 draft! The converted quarterback has great size and has recently trimmed ten lbs. off his frame in order to run a quicker 40 during the NFL Combine.

Miller has enormous athletic upside and is an electric athlete, but he’s very raw. Some have Miller being taken in the first round of the NFL Draft but I have a hard time predicting such an event. The expectation is that he will run a 40 in the the low 4.3s but his goal is a 4.28. Either way, a top 40 yard dash score will improve his chances to be selected highly come draft day. Carrying an early comparison to Percy Harvin, his stock continues to soar as a high-ceiling player with massive intrigue. Some could hang a Terrelle Pryor tag on him and I wouldn’t necessarily disagree.

Should he have had two-to-three years of experience at the position, his size, agility, dynamic and natural skills would likely find him near the top of this list. He’ll be fun to watch.

Rashard Higgins
Colorado St.
6’2/190 lbs.

One of my favorite sleepers in this draft class.

At 6’2″ and a relatively slight 190 lbs., Higgins shows the ability to run effective routes in a mostly pro-style offense. He runs a large route tree and shows effectiveness in and out of his breaks. Sometimes is inconsistent with his footwork at the line of scrimmage but shows ability to get where he needs to in his routes, uses his body effectively and has relatively confident hands. I’d like to see a bit more consistent leaping ability but, on occasion, he shows he does have the capability. Good hands catching ability and extends well to the ball. Aside from a few drops, he shows natural and soft hands.

As a blocker, I find myself impressed with both effort and ability. For his slight build, he uses his frame well to maximize position and leverage. With the ball in his hands, he’s not ultra-dynamic but shows determination and angular ability. Finishing his last two years with a total of 25 touchdowns and back to back 1.000 yard seasons, including 1,750 yards in 2014, Higgins has a chance for early career production if he can find his way to a good situation in the way of quarterback and offensive scheme.

Kenny Lawler
Cal
6’2/190 lbs.

Don’t want to get carried away as Lawler is a high-risk receiver, but he’s from a good program for producing NFL caliber receivers and displays many skills necessary at the next level. Like Higgins above, he’s got good height but a very slight build (slighter than Higgins) and a very thin base. He tracks the ball well, has good hands with a flare for the dramatic catch. Can jump and high point the ball to win catches in traffic and is a fluid runner with the ball in his hands. Does show the ability to sink his hips into out-routes to gain separation.

On the downside, I’ve noted some laziness and inconsistency in his routes and he’ll have a hard time staying healthy at his current weight in the NFL. Doesn’t appear to have elite separation ability and his speed is only fair. Will likely struggle against physical corners at the next level.

Summary

Let’s recap the rankings as listed above:

Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss
Josh Doctson, TCU
Michael Thomas, OSU
Corey Coleman, Baylor
Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh
Will Fuller, Notre Dame
Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma
Pharaoh Cooper, South Carolina
Leonte Carroo, Rutgers
Braxton Miller, OSU
Rashard Higgins, Colorado State
Kenny Lawler, Cal

When reviewing the listing I see a lot of risk but a fair amount of upside. I’m not of the mindset that this year’s fantasy first round is one that I need to be in if I’m looking for a receiver, but sign me up for multiple second round picks, early or late. This class, while lacking the polish of many drafts before, does have solid hands. Each draft does have its own character with some being size or speed, while others being production or dynamic. 2016 boasts players with natural hands and the ability to produce at multiple levels, especially in intermediate routes.

With only a single elite plalyer (Treadewell), too much risk means too much variability and production for my comfort. I do find myself drawn to both Josh Doctson and Pharaoh Cooper as players that have the natural combination of dynamic that I seek. Beyond that Rashard Higgins has that Allen Robinson upside potential while Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd scare me too much to risk high picks on. Corey Coleman is dangerous with the ball in his hands but has a skill-set that I believe could be far more productive in college than in the NFL. Not to say that he couldn’t be ultra productive in the right system, but I won’t be one selecting him carrying that risk.

With the NFL Combine due later this week, we’ll have a lot more data to sort through shortly and we’ll be able to see more natural ability at this position than others that participate.

Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff
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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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