February IDP Rookie Mock

Steve Wyremski

As reiterated a couple of weeks ago in an early IDP rookie rankings article, it’s difficult to rank IDP prospects prior to the NFL draft. Defensively, the value of an edge rusher as a 3-4 outside linebacker in a tackle-heavy league compared to a 4-3 defensive end is astronomical. To put it in perspective, it’s typical for a below average talent to be productive for IDP purposes purely due to situation. While it happens offensively as well, it’s not the norm – this is why reliance on pre-draft IDP rankings can be a bit dangerous.

Because so many IDP’ers are itching for rookie rankings, we decided to do a rookie mock draft. Not a typical mock draft, but one considering the scheme each player is drafted to. To accomplish this, we leveraged Matt Miller’s most recent full seven-round mock draft as the basis for the draft. This provides a point of reference, but also allows us to collectively begin to gather data points and create baselines on where IDP player values could be depending on specific scheme landing spots.

The mock draft participants included:

  1. Shane Hallam (About.com / Fanspeak.com)
  2. Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus / Rotoworld)
  3. Dan Sainio (DLF)
  4. Tyler Huggins (FF Couch Coach)
  5. Gary Davenport (Fantasy Sharks / Bleacher Report)
  6. Joe Redemann (numberFire)
  7. Steve Wyremski (DLF)
  8. Rob Leath (DLF)
  9. Tim Smith (FF Couch Coach)
  10. Sigmund Bloom (Footballguys)
  11. Treg Harris
  12. Mike Woellert (4for4)

The following league parameters worth noting:

  • 12 team PPR (1 PPR for all positions)
  • Starting lineup requirements:
    • Offense: 1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / 1 TE / 2 Flex
    • Defense: 1 DT / 2 DE / 3 LB / 2 CB / 2 S / 2 Flex
  • IDP scoring (6:2 sack:tackle ratio, or tackle heavy)

Initial Thoughts

Headed into the mock, I was very interested to see where Myles Jack, Reggie Ragland, Jaylon Smith and Darron Lee were drafted. All four landed in very solid situations with Jacksonville, Atlanta, Chicago and Buffalo, respectively. Jack is my top linebacker regardless of where he’s drafted with the potential to be a perennial top five IDP option for years. My expectation was he would be drafted in the early second round with Smith right behind him.

De’Runnya Wilson was a prospect I planned to keep close tabs on. Body catches is one a prime issue with him, but he has only played a few years of football in his short career. The upside is there. He could benefit from the right NFL coaching. Drafted to Baltimore in the fourth round provides him with a path to playing time. With this draft selection, I slated him in my top 12 and planned to target him accordingly in the second round, if available.

Sticking with receivers, I was surprised with Miller’s slide of Leonte Carroo to the third round in the NFL draft. While I’m a fan of his, he landed in an ugly situation in Buffalo with an offense unlikely to support two top receivers. He also has off the field issues, which may weigh in his NFL value (assault charge which was subsequently dropped). It would weigh in my ranking, but is more of a kicker if between picks than a value driver.

All three of Kenneth Dixon, Alex Collins and Paul Perkins landed in juicy situations giving their values a nice shot in the arm. I slated the three backs as potential late first round to mid-second round picks. I’m a huge fan of Dixon and his potential in today’s game as he could be a dynamite PPR back. He’s hands are top notch. Kenyan Drake also landed in a very compelling situation with Indianapolis making him a viable early third round pick.

[inlinead]I loved seeing Noah Spence land in a 4-3 base defense and tabbed him as a late second round pick. Pass rushing 4-3 defensive ends have become a rare breed and, therefore, a coveted IDP asset. Staying with IDPs, my favorite options for the late fourth round included Deion Jones as an inside linebacker with the Saints and Su’a Cravens with the Giants.

 

Round 1

1.01 S.Hallam – Ezekiel Elliot, RB NYJ

1.02 J.Ratcliffe – Laquon Treadwell, WR HOU

1.03 D.Sainio – Tyler Boyd, WR, NE

1.04 T.Huggins – Corey Coleman, WR SEA

1.05 G.Davenport – Derrick Henry, RB DAL

1.06 J.Redemann – Michael Thomas, WR LA

1.07 S.Wyremski – Alex Collins, RB NYG

1.08 R.Leath – Reggie Ragland, MLB ATL

1.09 T.Smith – Josh Doctson, WR TEN

1.10 S.Bloom – Sterling Shepard, WR CAR

1.11 T.Harris – Braxton Miller, WR CIN

1.12 M.Woellert – Jared Goff, QB SF

Best Value

Josh Doctson is easily the best value in the first with Sterling Shepard a strong consideration, as well. Many currently have Doctson slated in the top five, especially with the continued support he’s receiving from draftniks, particularly those who are eyeball and film evaluators. There are some concerns with the variety in his route tree, the competition he faced at the college level and his age as a rookie, but he does a lot of things well. This may seem like an odd choice as best value considering I went with Alex Collins over Doctson, but as you’ll read below, Doctson was a strong contender.

Biggest Reach

My pick of Alex Collins is virtually a guaranteed winner for round one, but more on that pick later. I’ll go with Reggie Ragland in the interim. While Atlanta is a solid landing spot for Ragland, there are concerns with his three down potential. He flashed pass-rushing ability at the Senior Bowl, but his upside does not appear to be as high as Myles Jack or Jaylon Smith. Ragland should be successful as a cornerstone for Dan Quinn, but he’s a high floor/low ceiling type of player. I’d slate him as a late second round pick if he were to land with the Falcons because of his sub package concerns.

Biggest Surprise

Leonte Carroo sliding out of the first round was a big surprise. I had a side conversation with another participant on this. We both were pretty surprised and agreed he is a great bet to be a first-round rookie pick post-NFL draft. What is important to consider is Rutgers’ offense was a disaster. Carroo suffered mightily with a below average quarterback and had he been saddled with an above average quarterback in a receiver-friendly offense, his buzz would be a lot stronger.

The biggest question with Carroo will be how NFL teams accept the off the field baggage and how he handles the related questions at the Combine. If he tempers scout concerns and interviews well, he should be drafted in the first two rounds. This would certainly slate him as first round rookie pick.

My Pick

The Alex Collins pick is likely to catch a lot of heat. I was split between Collins, Josh Doctson and Leonte Carroo. Kenneth Dixon was even a consideration given my aforementioned affinity for his receiving ability. Ultimately, this was as close to a coin flip as it could be. I was confident I could land a solid receiver prospect in the second round. To give some perspective on how close of a decision this was, if I were on the clock again today, I would likely go a different direction… and a different direction if faced with the same dilemma two days from now. It’s that close.

Carroo’s situation in Buffalo’s offense and Doctson’s limited route tree and rookie age were kickers in selecting Collins. Collins landed in an ideal situation with the Giants and is an angry and physical runner coming out of a pro-style offense. That carried significant appeal. The one question and concern I had with Collins is his receiving ability. He has limited experience in the passing game with only 27 receptions in his college career at Arkansas. I was willing to risk this potential limitation in order to grab the Giants’ likely 2016 starting running back. In this role, he should produce in his rookie year and carry immediate dynasty value.

 

Round 2

2.01 S.Hallam – Will Fuller, WR CLE

2.02 J.Ratcliffe – Leonte Carroo, WR BUF

2.03 D.Sainio – Jaylon Smith, ILB, CHI

2.04 T.Huggins – Pharoh Cooper, WR CHI

2.05 G.Davenport – Kenneth Dixon, RB HOU

2.06 J.Redemann – Noah Spence, DE TB

2.07 S.Wyremski – Myles Jack, MLB JAX

2.08 R.Leath – Rashard Higgins, WR SD

2.09 T.Smith – Paul Perkins, RB BAL

2.10 S.Bloom – Kenyan Drake, RB IND

2.11 T.Harris – De’Runnya Wilson, WR BAL

2.12 M.Woellert – Kenny Lawler, WR TB

Best Value

His value is deflated right now, but De’Runnya Wilson is a receiver who could shoot up to the first round of rookie drafts depending on how he performs at the Combine. His size and basketball history will be coveted, but there are concerns with his hand placement and speed, as well as his lack of growth he exhibited in 2015. However, his football life has not been terribly long and his best football may be ahead of him. There’s little not to like selecting a player with tremendous upside with the 23rd pick – there’s very little risk making this a perfect value pick.

Biggest Surprise

Reggie Ragland and Jaylon Smith over Myles Jack. I ran a Twitter poll during the mock draft and the majority agree that if the NFL draft played out this way, Jack would be their top linebacker option. I understand the appeal of the situations for all three players, however, Ragland comes with question marks regarding his sub package ability, while Smith has health concerns and it’s a possibility he’s not available for the start of the 2016 season. For me, those two factors alone would put Jack at the top of this list. Couple this with Jack’s rare athleticism and speed combination, and he possesses elite IDP potential.

My Pick

While my target was originally a receiver and De’Runnya Wilson was my other consideration, the perennial ability for Myles Jack to be a perennial top five linebacker was too much to pass on. He has the ability to be a three down linebacker immediately as a rookie and is unquestionably my top linebacker in the draft. With the top linebackers finishing in the top 40 overall players, this was a fairly easy pick despite the fact I typically stay away from defensive players in the first two rounds of rookie drafts.

 

Round 3

3.01 S.Hallam – Devontae Booker, RB MIA

3.02 J.Ratcliffe – Tajae Sharpe, WR GB

3.03 D.Sainio – Darron Lee, ILB BUF

3.04 T.Huggins – Joey Bosa, DE DAL

3.05 G.Davenport – Mike Thomas, WR OAK

3.06 J.Redemann – Jonathan Williams, RB SEA

3.07 S.Wyremski – Hunter Henry, TE ATL

3.08 R.Leath – CJ Prosise, RB SF

3.09 T.Smith – DeForest Buckner, DE NYG

3.10 S.Bloom – Austin Hooper, TE PIT

3.11 T.Harris – Paxton Lynch, QB PHI

3.12 M.Woellert – Kelvin Taylor, RB GB

Best Value

CJ Prosise is any easy pick here. While San Francisco is a tough landing spot with Carlos Hyde in the mix and the uncertainty with what Chip Kelly will bring to the offense, he’s a prospect who is picking up significant support over the last few weeks. As a former receiver, he’s a compelling PPR option. Not only does he excel in space, but he’s also proven he can mix it up inside and break tackles. Because he only has limited experience at running back, he’s also a prospect who should continue to improve with more time at the position. He could be an interesting option in Kelly’s 49er offense. This is a perfect low risk / high upside pick.

Biggest Surprise

I wouldn’t call it a surprise per se, but it was interesting to see Joey Bosa go before DeForest Buckner. Bosa is clearly the higher regarded NFL prospect since he’s viewed as a better all round player, but many believe Buckner is the better pass-rusher. Should Bosa go to the Cowboys and Buckner to the Giants, I’d slate Buckner over Bosa purely based on sack potential, as well as the immediate opportunity Buckner would see with the Giants.

My Pick

Julio Jones demands a ton of attention over the top, which could leave a joke tight end like Hunter Henry with plenty of space underneath to feast. This was a relatively easy pick for me with CJ Prosise as the only other option considered. Ultimately, the upside of a pass-catching end like Henry with the certainty for a starting role in the near term carried more weight.

 

Round 4

4.01 S.Hallam – Jordan Howard, RB CLE

4.02 J.Ratcliffe – Carson Wentz, QB CLE

4.03 D.Sainio – Aaron Burbridge, WR CAR

4.04 T.Huggins – Josh Ferguson, RB BAL

4.05 G.Davenport – D’haquille Williams, WR UDFA

4.06 J.Redemann – Scooby Wright, ILB SF

4.07 S.Wyremski – Bralon Addison, WR NYG

4.08 R.Leath – Shaq Lawson, DE/OLB IND

4.09 T.Smith – Malcolm Mitchell, WR KC

4.10 S.Bloom – Cardale Jones, QB SD

4.11 T.Harris – Kevin Dodd, OLB GB

4.12 M.Woellert – Darian Thompson, FS CAR

Best Value

To be able to grab a first round quarterback like Carson Wentz with your fourth round pick is big. Wentz was drafted into a position with a wide-open job in Cleveland in the first round of the NFL draft. With an extremely high ceiling, Wentz is a good bet to be one of the few options holding fantasy value a few years from now. This is a great pick.

Biggest Surprise

While Scooby Wright landed in a nice situation with the 49ers, I really thought one of Deion Jones or Su’a Cravens would be drafted before Wright. Both Jones and Cravens have the potential to be immediate impact players and play every down with their respective teams.

Biggest Reach

Kevin Dodd was drafted to a 3-4 scheme and is likely to be relegated to a pass rushing outside linebacker role. With the tackle heavy scoring, I would prefer to grab Jones, Cravens or even Kentrell Brothers over Dodd purely based on scheme differences.

My Pick

I was split between Malcolm Mitchell and Bralon Addison. While I briefly considered Deion Jones or Cravens, having already selected Myles Jack in the second, I wanted to take another shot on a wide receiver prospect and, ultimately, I avoided IDPs this round. Addison is a speedy option who could excel in the Giants offense with the need of another receiver to take advantage of the attention Odell Beckham is and will continue to receive.

Final Thoughts

Overall, I thought Jeff Ratcliffe walked away with the nicest haul netting Laquon Treadwell, Leonte Carroo, Tajae Sharpe and Carson Wentz. His objective appeared to be to avoid IDPs and snag undervalued offensive players in rounds two through four to add to the top receiver in the draft.

Finally, I was surprised to see no one take a shot on Byron Marshall who was drafted by the Chargers in the sixth round. It’s a long shot, but considering what the Chargers have done with Danny Woodhead, he’d make a compelling sleeper if drafted by the Chargers.

If you’re interested in seeing the full mock and the comments from all participants on each pick, the full draft can be found here.

 

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski

[ad5]