The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag. Today I’ll be filling in for Eric as he’s been super busy with work. If you’ve listened to us on the DLF Podcast, you know we always agree on everything (not really), so you’ll get the same analysis.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

From: Max in Boston, MA

16 team, .5 PPR, no IDP, 1QB, 2WR, 1TE, 1WR/TE flex

Would you trade Julio Jones and the 1.08 for Randall Cobb, Ameer Abdullah, DeAndre Smelter, 1.02 and 1.15?

[inlinead]The first thing I like to do with trades which have a lot of parts, is try to simplify it. For me, Smelter doesn’t weigh too heavily into the trade, so to uncomplicate things, let’s throw him out. I can smooth this trade out further by saying I think Abdullah and the 1.15 are worth about the 1.08 (in full transparency, I’d rather have the Abdullah side in this hypothetical, so I’ll pretend I have a remainder on the second side). So now we’re down to Jones for Cobb and the 1.02 (and a little more).

Looking at your league settings, two things stand out to me. You’re in a 16 team league which starts two wide receivers and a possible wide receiver flex. Let’s pretend we know how many wide receivers will be started each week. We know 32 will, with a possible 48. Most teams will start a receiver over a tight end, so we’ll say your league is starting 44 receivers in a given week. This means depth is more important than in other, more shallow, leagues. The other aspect which stands out is the fact that your league rewards only a half a point for receptions. In a normal PPR league, Cobb barely outscored John Brown, Tavon Austin and James Jones in 2015. In a half point per reception league, Cobb was outscored by Brown and Austin and would’ve had essentially the same points per game as Jones. Obviously, Cobb had a down year in 2015, but Cobb is less just less valuable in this format.

While I value depth in this league format, and the 1.02 could net you either Laquan Treadwell or Ezekiel Elliot, I just don’t believe you’re getting enough for Jones. These type of trades are often called “consolidation trades” where a lot of fun pieces can be added up to look like a lot. While I do think this is a completely fair offer, I don’t think you should accept the deal.

From: The Fry Guy in Rochester, NY

12 team, ppr, no IDP, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, flex

Great podcast guys, I look forward to each new episode every week!  I’m coming off of a championship and I think my team is locked and loaded for success for many years down the road.  I’m leaning towards not making any trades this offseason but the offers are pouring in.  I’m sitting on Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Jamaal Charles, TJ Yeldon, Thomas Rawls, Duke Johnson, Chris Ivory, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Devante Parker, Josh Gordon, John Brown and Rob Gronkowski. The offers coming in are 1.04 and Sammy Watkins for Gordon and Jeffery. 1.04 for Jeffery. 1.04 for Parker. Demaryius Thomas + for Parker. There were a couple others that didn’t make the cut.  I am pretty sure the top three picks will be 2 RB’s and Treadwell in the upcoming draft, as the guy who has pick 1.03 has to get a RB.  Do you see enough value in Corey Coleman, Mike Thomas, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Josh Doctson or any other rookie to make a move, or do you think I should just sit tight?  Thanks guys!

There’s a ton to digest here, but first I’d like to thank you for listening to the podcast.

I’ll address each trade individually, but before I do I’d like to say while looking at your roster you’re a perfect candidate to look for “consolidation trades.” You already have a bunch of stars, so if you’re doing a trade, you’re doing so not looking for depth, but looking for more stars.

The first trade has you sending Jeffery and Gordon for the 1.04 and Watkins. I value Jeffery and Watkins very similarly, so like I did earlier, I’ll throw them out of this. The question becomes is Gordon worth the 1.04? Again, I think this is very close. If I had to choose, especially in your case, I’d take the pick. You can clear up space on your roster for the offseason, and I do prefer Watkins by a hair.

Not only does doing that trade negate the 1.04 for Parker deal (which I’d do), but your next question negates it even further. You’re being offered not only Thomas, a receiver who has posted four straight WR1 seasons, but being offered more on top of him for a sophomore who barely showed flashes in his rookie year? Yes, jump on this deal quickly, but make sure there aren’t any cords you will trip on or sharp objects on your way running to click the “accept” button.

To address your last question, I’ll be the first to admit I haven’t dove into the rookie crop of receivers just yet. There are some you mentioned which have intrigued me enough to think the 1.04 has value. Not only do you not have to make that decision yet, you actually can move up, down, or trade for a player later. There is no better time to trade a draft pick than on draft day. I say get that pick now, get younger with Watkins and use the 1.04 as bait in April.

From: Chad Marxen in Providence

10 team, no PPR, no IDP, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, D, K, flex

I’m in an auction league, where one can keep at most 2 players for at most 2 years for the price one paid for them at the auction. I can keep Jeremy Hill for 1 dollar, Keenan Allen for 19 dollars, Alshon Jeffery for 40 dollars, or Beckham Jr. for 50 dollars. Which 2 should I keep?

Without knowing your budget, I can only use these players relative value against each other. If you have a $1,000 budget, taking on Beckham Jr at $50 isn’t a big deal. If your budget is $100, using half your allotted money on one player is not a good idea. I’ll assume you’re working on a $200 budget as it’s a pretty standard amount.

I like to call Beckham Jr “the queen chess piece.” He’s the most valuable player in dynasty, and I don’t think second place is particularly close. Your league isn’t a traditional dynasty, though. You can only keep players for two years after their first season on your team, so it’s a bit more “redraft-y” than dynasty. Either way, “OBJ” is worth keeping in any format.

The next keeper comes down to which player provides the most value over their price. Given a $200 budget. I’d expect Hill to go for around $20, Allen to go for about $40 and Jeffery for $45. This immediately disqualifies Jeffery as you’re getting such a small discount by keeping him. Hill and Allen are much closer in value, though. If we know Hill goes for $20, you’re getting him on a $19 discount. If we know Allen goes for $40, you’re getting him on a $21 discount. This is a close call, but I’ll go with my instinct before breaking this down and tell you to keep Allen and Beckham Jr. Now you have your two starting wide receivers set for the next two years, and you still have over 65 percent of your budget to play with in next year’s auction.

Follow me on Twitter @KarlSafchick

[ad5]