Rookies and Sophomores and Devys, Oh My! Part One

Ryan McDowell Posted On February 5, 2016

goff Last summer, I wrote a three-part series ranking the rookie classes of 2014-2016, based on current and projected dynasty value. The thinking was we as dynasty owners so often compare the current rookie class to both the previous class as well as the upcoming group of rookies. In the summer edition, I ranked my top 75 players and want to revisit that as many things have changed.

Looking back at the preseason list, I realize that I was greatly overvaluing the current college, or devy, players. Many of the players I ranked in the summer didn’t even declare, while others suffered injuries or struggled through the college season. This will serve as a reminder when I look forward to future rookie classes beyond a year in advance.

As I was formulating this updated list, I realized some important things. Most importantly, I think my current rankings posted here on DLF had become a bit stale. I had been hesitant to move players drastically higher or lower from their original spot in my early season rankings. This process was an eye-opener for me, which will really help revolutionize my rankings.

Another thing I learned was the three rookie classes combined for more than 75 relevant players. Because of that, I’ll be ranking my top 100 players from the three classes. While the title remains Rookies and Sophomores and Devys, Oh My, the players included will soon see their titles adjusted, as the incoming rookie class includes players like Ezekiel Elliott and Laquon Treadwell. For now though, they’ll still be included in the “devy” group. Don’t worry, I’ll be back later in the off-season with a comparison of the 2015, 2016 and 2017 rookie classes.

For now, onto the rankings! I’ll also be including their previous rank and you can take a look at last summer’s series:

Rookies and Sophomores and Devys, Oh My! Part One

Rookies and Sophomores and Devys, Oh My! Part Two

Rookies and Sophomores and Devys, Oh My! Part Three

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100. Devontae Booker, RB Utah Previous Rank: Not Ranked
99. Bishop Sankey, RB TEN PR: 72
98. David Cobb, RB TEN PR: 56
97. JJ Nelson, WR ARZ PR: NR
96. Justin Hardy, WR ATL PR: NR
95. Devin Smith, WR NYJ PR: 70
94. Jordan Howard, RB Indiana PR: NR
93. CJ Prosise, RB Notre Dame PR: NR
92. James White, RB NE PR: NR
91. Cameron Artis-Payne, RB CAR PR: NR
90. Paul Perkins, RB UCLA PR: NR
89. Ty Montgomery, WR GB PR: NR
88. Richard Rodgers, TE GB PR: NR
87. Will Tye, TE NYG PR: NR
86. Jamison Crowder, WR WAS PR: NR
85. Marqise Lee, WR JAX PR: 48
84. Cody Latimer, WR DEN PR: 40
83. Christian Hackenberg, QB Penn State PR: 50
82. Tre Mason, RB STL PR: 69
81. Paxton Lynch, QB Memphis PR: NR
80. Hunter Henry, TE Arkansas PR: NR
79. Demarcus Ayers, WR Houston PR: NR
78. Clive Walford, TE OAK PR: NR
77. Mike Thomas, WR Southern Miss PR: NR
76. Jace Amaro, TE NYJ PR: 62

Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN PR: 47

Playing second fiddle to star back Adrian Peterson, second year running back Jerick McKinnon rarely got many touches, but when he did, he made plays. McKinnon’s late season two touchdown run game against the Giants came at the perfect time to boost his dynasty value heading into the off-season. With Peterson’s career touches mounting up, the window to buy McKinnon at a discount is nearing an end.

Sammie Coates, WR PIT PR: 68

The Steelers reportedly drafted Sammie Coates to offset the loss of Martavis Bryant, who was suspended for the first four games of the season, but things didn’t really work out for the former Auburn Tiger. Coates barely stepped on the field, serving as a game day inactive most weeks. He did make a couple of big plays in the team’s playoff loss to Denver, but is likely to remain stuck behind Antonio Brown and Bryant going forward.

Willie Snead, WR NO PR: NR

The former undrafted free agent Willie Snead bounced around the league for a year before he caught on with the New Orleans Saints and they really needed him. Snead became a consistent producer for quarterback Drew Brees just as longtime star Marques Colston began to fade. Now, Colston is a possible cap casualty and Snead could play even a larger role next season.

Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State PR: NR

One of the fastest rising prospects in this NFL Draft season is former North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz, a two-time national champion. Wentz dominated the Senior Bowl week and is now being talked about as a potential top five draft pick. Coming from a small school, Wentz hasn’t faced much high level competition and may need some time to adjust to the NFL’s defenders.

Jared Goff, Cal PR: NR

While Wentz is closing the gap, most still consider Cal’s Jared Goff to be the top quarterback in the incoming class. He could be selected as early as second overall by the Cleveland Browns, but landing in Dallas at the four spot could be the best case for Goff, even if it means waiting at least a year before seeing meaningful playing time.

Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE PR: 45

Second year back Isaiah Crowell had a disappointing season as the Browns failed to ever really establish the run at any point in the season. With a new coaching staff led by Hue Jackson, I expect the running game to be an emphasis in the Browns’ offense, which could lead to a bounce back season from Crowell.

Chris Conley, WR KC PR: NR

After he dominated the 2015 NFL Combine, Chris Conley was a hot name in the dynasty community. The Chiefs made him a third round pick, and as a raw prospect, he didn’t see the field with much consistency. Conley clearly has some talent and the Chiefs continue to have a need on the wide receiver depth chart, so I expect him to play a much larger role next season.

Charcandrick West, RB KC PR: NR

After not taking an offensive snap in 2014, running back Charcandrick West was a savior for the Chiefs following the early season loss of star Jamaal Charles. West totaled over 800 yards in limited action and made a strong case to claim the top backup spot behind Charles in 2016. The bad news is barring another injury to Charles, West won’t see the field much. Playing behind a star like Charles certainly hurts the value of running backs.

D’haquille Williams, WR Auburn PR: 25

A year ago, Auburn wide receiver D’haquille Williams was one of the most coveted devy players around, but he’d ended the 2014 season on a down note, serving a suspension in the team’s bowl game. That proved to be an ominous sign as Williams faced more trouble this past season and was eventually dismissed from the school. There has been very little news about Williams since his departure from Auburn and while his talent alone has me interested in him as a draft prospect, there are some clear signs that maybe we just just stay away.

Javorius Allen, RB BAL PR: 75

Former USC big bodied back Javorius Allen entered the NFL a year ago with little fanfare and relatively low expectations placed upon him, but he landed in an ideal spot and once the veteran starter Justin Forsett went down with a season ending injury, Allen stepped up and claimed the main role in the Ravens’ backfield. While Allen didn’t wow anyone, he might have done enough to earn the starting job on a team that has some major holes to fill on the offensive side of the ball.

Charles Sims, RB TB PR: 65

Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin had a great year, finishing as RB4 and seeing his dynasty stock rebound in a major way. His play also somewhat overshadowed his teammate Charles Sims, who was the RB17 on the season. With Martin expected to re-sign with the Bucs, I expect a repeat of this backfield split in 2016, which boosts Sims’ value in PPR leagues. Sims is one of the most underrated players in dynasty leagues and an excellent player to target in early off-season trades.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN PR: 30

I was among the many a year ago to prematurely place a significant value on Vikings’ quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. By the end of the off-season of hype, Bridgewater was being ranked and drafted among the top five quarterbacks in some dynasty leagues. Of course, this now looks outrageous. While Bridgewater and the Vikings had a very successful season on the field, it didn’t translate to fantasy production. Bridgewater was only the fantasy QB23 and that’s partially due to so many quarterbacks missing multiple games. With youth and job security on his side, the former Louisville quarterback still has some dynasty value, but not nearly the level we saw a year ago.

Maxx Williams, TE BAL PR: 57

As often happens, rookie tight end Maxx Williams of the Ravens had a very quiet first season in the league. Williams was barely in the top 40 fantasy scorers at the position and found the end zone just once. I see a lot of similarities between the situation Williams finds himself in and that of Bengals’ Tyler Eifert. Eifert also had a slow start to his career, sharing snaps with Jermaine Gresham and then suffered a serious injury to start his second season. We know what happened in year three, as Eifert is now considered one of the top tight ends in the league. It remains to be seen if Williams can make the same leap, but he should certainly have the opportunity as one of Joe Flacco’s top targets.

Jaelen Strong, WR HOU PR: 42

It was a rough season for Texans’ rookie receiver Jaelen Strong. He dealt with issues adjusting to the league and had trouble hanging onto the ball. He was eventually bypassed by nearly every receiver on the Houston roster, but finally got a shot in mid-season. He responded by catching three touchdowns among his first handful of receptions in the league, but that was clearly the highlight of his season. With the expectation of the Texans adding a new starting quarterback and a full year under Strong’s belt, there are some reasons to expect improvement from the talented pass catcher.

Tajae Sharpe, WR Massachusetts PR: 63

As a senior of UMass, Tajae Sharpe had some major production, going over 150 receiving yards on four occasions and totaling over 1,300 for the season. The production is nice, but the competition was not at the same level of many of Sharpe’s peer entering the league. Also, some concerns surrounding Sharpe include his remarkably small hands, measuring in at less than eight inches, which has been a red flag for some draftniks. For what it’s worth, Pro Football Focus noted that Sharpe had just three drops in his senior season. What concerns me is Sharpe’s lack of presence as a red zone threat. Often, with small school prospects, we see a monstrous stat line as they’ve dominated the competition. Sharpe though, has just 16 career touchdowns. I know many shared a similar concern about Odell Beckham when he entered the league, but it can’t be ignored.

Phillip Dorsett, WR IND PR: 44

I was not a big believer in former Miami receiver Phillip Dorsett a year ago as he entered the league. Being selected in the first round by the Colts did a lot to boost his stock, but one year in, it simply looks like a reach. While there is plenty of time to change, Dorsett has his work cut out for him to eat into the playing time of TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief, among others.

Matt Jones, RB WAS PR: 60

Another pick that looked like a reach on draft day was Matt Jones, who the Redskins grabbed in the third round. Coming out of Florida, Jones was barely on the radar of dynasty owners before that surprising pick, but he had a very productive season and quickly turned the Redskins’ backfield into a committee attack. Now, veteran Alfred Morris is almost certainly on his way out of town as an unrestricted free agent. If someone is willing to pay a nice price, I’ll be selling Jones before Washington signs or drafts their Morris replacement.

Tevin Coleman, RB ATL PR: 35

One of the major rookie disappointments from the 2015 season was Falcons’ running back Tevin Coleman. Things started well as Coleman beat out sophomore Devonta Freeman for the starting job, but when Coleman suffered a minor injury early in the season, Freeman stepped in and never looked back. Freeman is now considered one of the top five running backs in dynasty leagues and Coleman is looking like a wasted rookie pick. There are rare cases where teams don’t make use of at least two running backs, so I’m excited to see what Coleman can do in 2016. He’s a nice buy low with all of the Freeman hype.

Kenneth Dixon, RB Louisiana Tech PR: NR

There is a battle developing for the RB3 spot in this upcoming rookie class, behind the projected top two rookie picks, Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry and Louisiana Tech’s Kenneth Dixon is making his case with a strong Senior Bowl week. Dixon does a little bit of everything and does it all pretty well. He’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield and scored 72 career touchdowns, good for fourth on the all-time NCAA list. I feel Dixon is currently underrated as he’s being drafted in the second round of most DLF Rookie mock drafts, but with his positive momentum, Dixon is definitely in contention to be a first round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

Alex Collins, RB Arkansas PR: NR

While Dixon is making a push, my RB3 in this rookie class is still former Arkansas back Alex Collins, who took advantage of the unfortunate injury to teammate Jonathan Williams and had the best season of his college career. Collins eclipsed the 1,000 rushing yard barrier in each of his three seasons at Arkansas, including a career best 1,577 this season. He’s not much of a receiver, but could be a solid part of a committee attack in the right situation.

Rashard Higgins, WR Colorado State PR: 39

A lanky wide receiver out of Colorado State, Rashard Higgins broke out with a huge sophomore season when he totaled 1,750 receiving yards and scored 17 touchdowns. Those numbers would prove difficult to duplicate as you might imagine. Higgins still managed a very respected 1,000 yard season and eight touchdowns as he was nagged by hamstring injuries through much of the season. Higgins isn’t getting much attention, but is another candidate to be a late first round rookie pick in spring dynasty drafts.

Derek Carr, QB OAK PR: 74

In his second season, Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr showed great improvement, thanks in large part to the addition of receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Carr was just outside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks, but at just 24 years old and the expectation of playing alongside Cooper for years to come, Carr can be considered a top ten dynasty quarterback going forward.

Blake Bortles, QB JAX PR:

Carr was not alone as a second year breakout quarterback as Jaguar Blake Bortles put up some monster numbers, finishing as the QB4 behind only Cam Newton, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. The continued emergence of second year receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns helped make Bortles a weekly fantasy starter, despite leading the league with 18 interceptions. With some improvement from running back TJ Yeldon, we should see a more balanced offensive game plan from Jacksonville, which could ding Bortles’ numbers in 2016. Like Carr, Bortles is in the top ten dynasty quarterback range.

Ameer Abdullah, RB DET PR: 36

As 2015 rookie drafts neared, Lions’ speedy rookie runner Ameer Abdullah looked like a sure thing. He wowed in the pre-season and began his career with a long rushing touchdown on his first regular season carry. Things went poorly from there as Abdullah was outplayed by both Joique Bell and Theo Riddick. Abdullah did see more touches after the Lions made a change at offensive coordinator and there is a good chance Bell could be gone next season. Abdullah’s value has certainly dropped over the past few months, but there are some reasons to still believe in the former Nebraska playmaker.

Nelson Agholor, WR PHI PR: 18

After landing in Philadelphia and Chip Kelly, the dynasty value of Nelson Agholor exploded. He became a routine pick in the top half of the rookie drafts a season ago. The Eagles struggled and Kelly was dismissed before the season even concluded. Now, new head coach Doug Pederson looks set to focus on the running game along with some two tight end sets and Jordan Matthews should remain the team’s top pass catcher. There may not be much room for Agholor to become a starting level fantasy player.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.