Dynasty Capsule: Green Bay Packers
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the regular season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Quarterback
It was a rough year for the Packers’ offense and Aaron Rodgers. Much of the fantasy community, including myself, didn’t adjust the ranking of Rodgers as a top two quarterback for 2015 after the loss of Jordy Nelson in the preseason. Losing his top receiving target proved to have a much larger effect on the Packers offense than originally thought. Largely due to his receivers unable to beat man coverage reliably and injuries along the offensive line, Rodgers had his worst season as a starter. The coaching staff’s inability to evolve and change up the offense in the absence of Nelson didn’t help matters either.
Over the final ten games of the season, Rodgers failed to produce a quarterback rating over 100. He finished the season with the lowest passer rating (92.7), completion percentage (60.7%) and yards per attempt (6.68) of his career as a starter. The Packers quarterback was also sacked 46 times in 2015, which was second in the league behind only Blake Bortles. Despite all of that, he still finished the season with 3,821 yards, 31 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. Looking ahead to 2016 and beyond, I see no reason Rodgers won’t continue to be a top three fantasy option at quarterback going forward.
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Scott Tolzien (UFA)
The Packers’ backup quarterback for 2015 saw action in just three games and attempted only one pass which he completed for four yards. The team drafted Brett Hundley in the the fifth round of the 2015 NFL draft so It’s unclear whether or Tolzien will be back with the team in 2016.
Rodgers stayed healthy all season long and Tolzien was brought in to finish games during blowouts which meant no regular season snaps for Hundley. He did play extremely well in the preseason however posting a 129.6 passer rating along with seven touchdowns to just one interception. In the preseason finale against the Saints, Hundley threw for 236 yards and four touchdowns. The Packers seem to have found their backup of the future.
Running Back
It was an extremely disappointing season for Lacy and his fantasy owners. Going into the 2015 season, he was a consensus top three to five option at the position. Needless to say, he didn’t come close to reaching those lofty projections. The third year running back had the worst season of his career posting just 758 yards (4.1 ypc) and three touchdowns to go with 20 receptions for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
There were quite a few rumors that surfaced throughout the season as to why Lacy experienced such a sharp decline in production including a nagging ankle injury and being overweight. Entering week 13, it looked like Lacy was his old self after back to back 100 yard games against the Vikings and Bears, but he missed curfew and was benched in favor of James Starks.
This off-season presents a nice buy-low opportunity for Lacy if you believe he will rebound. Tread lightly here though because he is currently only under contract for the 2016 season and will become a UFA in 2017. If he takes a hometown discount than the Packers could bring him back after next season but I believe that to be unlikely. One of the reasons we liked Lacy so much was because of the high-powered offense in Green Bay. If he goes to a weaker team how productive will he be?
James Starks (UFA)
The better Packers running back for most of the season wasn’t Lacy, it was James Starks. He was healthy all season long, played in all 16 games, and started four of them. Starks equaled Lacy’s 4.1 yards per carry and finished the year with 601 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. He also shined in the passing game, hauling in 43 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns. However, it became clear as the season went on that Starks didn’t offer the same kind of upside as Lacy in a starting role and he faded down the stretch.
Starks is currently not under contract for 2016 and his future with the Packers is uncertain as of this moment. My gut says they will bring him back as there is unlikely to be much interest outside of Green Bay for a career backup entering his age 30 season.
The undrafted rookie out of North Dakota state appeared in two games and posted just nine carries for 21 yards. If Starks moves on then Crockett would move into a backup role for 2016 but I’m sure the team will bring in another back through the draft.
Wide Receiver
Nelson missed the entire 2015 season with a torn ACL suffered in the preseason. His importance to the offense was abundantly clear from the get go as the Packers passing offense struggled to produce all season long. At this time I see no reason Nelson shouldn’t resume his role as Aaron Rodgers’ number one target in the passing game and be one of the most productive receivers in the NFL for the 2016 season. He will be 30 years old next season and is under contract through 2018. If you can get Nelson at a discount this off-season I would do it as he has at least two productive seasons left in him.
It was clear early on that Cobb isn’t capable of carrying a passing game. It is difficult to run an offense through the slot receiver anyway but it’s even more difficult when you have no deep threat to pull coverage from the middle of the field where he makes his living. Cobb did suffer a shoulder injury, which he never appeared to completely recover from. It certainly could have bothered him all season long resulting in a subpar season for a player who caught 91 balls for 1287 yards and 12 touchdowns just one season ago. His numbers in 2015 were disappointing at just 79 catches for 829 yards and six touchdowns. Volume certainly wasn’t a problem as he actually had two more targets (129 – 127) than he did in 2014.
With the return of a healthy Jordy Nelson in 2016, Cobb should be closer to his 2014 numbers than his 2015 numbers next season and presents a nice buy-low opportunity this off-season.
Davante AdamsIt was a tumultuous season for Davante Adams. His inefficiency in 2014 was largely chalked up to him being a rookie. When Nelson went down to an ACL injury in the preseason, Adams’ ADP went through the roof as fantasy owners began drafting him in the fourth round based on the opportunity he would have as the WR2 in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. That optimism quickly disintegrated as the inefficiency which plagued him during his rookie season carried over into year two and James Jones took over the role vacated by Nelson. Over a four week span (weeks nine – twelve) Adams was targeted a whopping 47 times but caught just 22 of them for just 222 yards and zero touchdowns. In week ten alone he had 21 targets and managed just ten catches for 79 yards. Adams was also hampered by ankle and knee injuries all season long.
With Nelson returning, Adams’ role in 2016 is a bit murky. In all likelihood he will return to his WR3 role similar to what he had in his 2014 rookie season. Even that may be in question, however, as rookie Ty Montgomery looked good in his limited duty before going out with an ankle injury of his own. If the packers elect to go with the more athletic Montgomery then Adams could be relegated to a backup role in the offense.
James Jones (UFA)
Once Nelson went down, the Packers quickly scooped up James Jones who had been released by the New York Giants. The chemistry he and Rodgers had shared during his previous stint in Green Bay was still present, and Jones got off to a hot start, catching six of his eight touchdowns in the first six games of the season. Much like the rest of the Packers offense, Jones struggled down the stretch with just two touchdowns over the final ten games, including two games (week ten and twelve) where he failed to record a single catch. Jones becomes a UFA after the season, and with Nelson returning, he is unlikely to be brought back in 2016.
I questioned the addition of Montgomery in the third round of the 2015 NFL draft mostly because of his rawness as a route runner. At Stanford he reminded me of Cordarrelle Patterson – an exciting player with the ball in his hands in the open field, but possessing an inability to create separation for himself in the passing game. He proved to be a more capable receiver than I originally thought before his season was cut short by an ankle injury in week six.
Neither of these two second year receivers did much with their limited opportunities in 2015. Despite reports of his inability to grasp the offense, Janis continues to be the “Christine Michael” of wide receivers and a fantasy darling for the metrics crowd due to his impressive athletic ability. Abbrederis had a solid game in week ten, catching four of his seven targets for 57 yards but didn’t prove to have much staying power in the offense.
Tight End
The Packers have been searching for a reliable tight end ever since the days of Jermichael Finley. In a year fraught with turmoil, Richard Rodgers proved to be a bright spot and his quarterbacks most reliable target in the redzone. Rodgers had his season-defining performance in week 13 against the Lions which included his end of the game hail mary catch in the endzone to give his team the victory. While not an imposing physical talent, Rodgers has carved out a role for himself in the Packers offense and should continue to grow in 2016.
Andrew Quarless (UFA) & Justin Perillo (ERFA)
Quarless suffered a knee injury in week three and was a non-factor in 2015. His injury opened up a role for Perillo who was relatively ineffective this season outside of a week 13 loss in Detroit where he caught five of six targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. Neither of these two backup tight ends are currently under contract for 2016.
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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