Bargain Shopping: C.J. Anderson

Austan Kas

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In a given fantasy football season, we tend to place too much emphasis on the first weeks of the year. It is perfectly understandable. We’re so excited for the season to start, and how our team performs early can have a huge impact on whether we approach the rest of the season as buyers or sellers.

A lot of times, though, what happens in the first half of the year ends up carrying more weight than it should, at least as we develop our opinions about how players did that season. Devonta Freeman was a monster for the first two months of 2015. Most people who play fantasy football probably don’t know he averaged just 3.0 yards per carry over the final five weeks (DLF readers do).

C.J. Anderson did the exact opposite, starting slowly and finishing well. It’s created an opportunity to land one of the league’s better backs at a severe discount.

Anderson has been labeled as a bust for his 2015 efforts. Search “2015 fantasy football busts” and you can find poor ol’ C.J. on just about every list. It is justified; his end-of-year fantasy totals certainly did not live up to his preseason expectations. However, I think those shortcomings can be explained, and for dynasty players, 2015 is already a little speck in the rearview mirror. All that matters is what Anderson is going to do going forward, and I really like his chances to continue producing.

I released a list of buy-low candidates in December, but I wanted to expound on a couple of those. This is the first installment of what will be a new series. Each article will dive into a player who I feel is currently being undervalued. Trading, specifically buying low on players, is probably my favorite element of dynasty football.

In truth, the series started last off-season; it just didn’t have an official title. I wrote separate pieces on Keenan Allen (here) and Doug Martin (here), pegging them as bounce-back candidates for 2015 who were on sale. I can’t promise you it will always work out that well, but the goal is the same: acquire assets who are currently being undervalued.

Let’s dive into Anderson’s case.

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Slow startanderson

There are slow starts, and then there are sloooooooow starts. Anderson’s beginning to the 2015 campaign falls under the latter. Over the first three games, he totaled 32 carries for 74 yards and no scores. Things didn’t get a whole lot better in the next three games, either, as he amassed 106 yards on 35 carries.

In all, over the first six games, he ran the ball 67 times for 180 yards. My calculator tells me that’s 2.7 yards per carry.

Puke.

Those first few weeks were a mess for the entire Denver offense. A new offensive line wasn’t playing well, and we were finding out how bad Peyton Manning was going to be this season. On top of it all, Anderson dealt with toe and ankle injuries, which it turns out were worse than we knew.

I ain’t one of the Cosby’s, I ain’t go to Hillman

Of course, to complete the perfect storm for Anderson, his backfield-mate Ronnie Hillman posted a pair of 100-yard rushing games in the first seven weeks and scored both of the Broncos’ rushing touchdowns.

Hillman averaged 4.5 yards per carry during that stretch. This led to Hillman, who started the year as the backup, vaulting Anderson on the depth chart. Things stayed that way the rest of the year, even when it became obvious Anderson was playing better than Hillman, which made it extremely tough for Anderson to provide much value for the remainder of the season.

Over the final ten weeks, Hillman ran it 141 times for 540 yards and six scores. Despite producing just 3.8 yards per carry in the final ten games, Hillman kept getting touches. Let’s compare that to what Anderson did.

Finishing kick

After the week seven bye, Anderson emerged a new man. Actually, he looked a lot like the Anderson who shredded the league over the second half of 2014.

Starting in week eight, Anderson averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry in eight of his last nine games (he missed one game). In all, he racked up 540 yards on 85 carries, which is good for a sparkling 6.3 yards per carry.

Anderson’s stellar finish led to his year-end efficiency numbers looking pretty good. He finished the season averaging the 4.7 yards per carry, which ranked 11th among all running backs with at least 100 carries. Guess what his yards-per-carry mark was in 2014, when he was an exciting breakout player? 4.7!

All that kept Anderson from really re-emerging onto the fantasy radar was the fact he was splitting carries with Hillman. Anderson got 14 or more carries in three games, and he had at least 95 rushing yards and a touchdown in each of those outings.

Denver still hasn’t figured it out. In the Divisional Round, Hillman ran 16 times for 38 yards, and Anderson gained 72 yards on 15 carries. It looked like the Broncos started catching wind of the trend against New England in the AFC title game. Anderson carried the ball 16 times for 72 yards, adding three catches for 18 yards, while Hillman had just 16 yards on 11 attempts.

Moving forward

We have 338 carries of data which tells us C.J. Anderson is a quality NFL running back. Over those 338 attempts, he’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry, totaled 1,607 rushing yards and scored 13 touchdowns. He’s also shown the ability to be a capable receiver, hauling in 51 career passes for 507 yards and two scores.

anderson-2Since the start of 2014, among backs with at least 300 carries, Anderson ranks fourth in yards per carry, trailing only Justin Forsett, Le’Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles (didn’t expect to see Forsett there). That’s pretty nice company.

Anderson is a restricted free agent at the end of the year while Hillman is an unrestricted free agent. I don’t know how that’ll play out, but it’s a pretty safe bet Anderson will be back in Denver next fall. Even if Hillman rejoins him, you have to believe Anderson will be back atop the depth chart at some point, if he doesn’t open the season there.

It also seems like Manning is done after this year, which is probably a good thing for Anderson. Brock Osweiler should be able to challenge defenses downfield, at least keeping them from putting safeties near the line of scrimmage.

Anderson currently sits as RB25 in our positional rankings, which are typically a great gauge of the dynasty landscape.

Gosh, that seems way too low. At a position as berserk as running back, it’s imperative to jump on any opportunity to land a good back at a discount. Now is the time to acquire Anderson, who the numbers tell us is one of the league’s best running backs.

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