2015 Rookie Re-Draft: Round Two
The 2015 fantasy season is in the books, which means some owners are sitting back and binge-watching their favorite show. While that might be enjoyable, it isn’t going to help them win the title next year. The smart owners are spending some time looking at current player values and trying to figure out where the deals are. Who are the players who are overvalued, and who are the ones on the other end of the spectrum? Those lists are often dominated by young players, especially rookies.
In order to help you get a feel for the current value of last year’s crop, I joined eleven other writers and conducted a redraft of the 2015 rookie class. The rules were simple. Draft the player you feel is the best available for a team with no glaring holes. We assumed PPR scoring and a normal starting lineup (not superflex or 2QB). We went three rounds deep, and each writer was asked to supply some thoughts on the player they drafted. To give an extra perspective, I’ll also be commenting on each pick. Hopefully the pair of perspectives will help you with your own evaluations of the 2015 class, and you’ll be able to use the market to your advantage this off-season.
In case you missed it, here is the first round which was posted earlier. Now it is time for round two.
2.01 – Melvin Gordon, RB SD
Typical draft range last year – Early first
Bruce’s thoughts – I’m sprinting to the podium for this pick. I’m still high on Gordon even with the woeful rookie season. I’m very patient with rookies, especially if they have a profile like Gordon’s because it’s typical for some players to start out slow when it comes to fantasy production. Thirteenth overall is tremendous value for a first round rookie running back that was super productive in college. Don’t forget that the Chargers moved up a few spots in the first round to select Gordon. Ameer Abdullah was the second option for this pick. Like Gordon, his rookie season wasn’t as dynamic as many was expecting. He showed flashes of athleticism that demonstrated that he’s capable of having a larger role in the offense.
My thoughts – I completely and whole-heartedly agree with Bruce on this one. Yes, Gordon had a terrible rookie season. In fact, there really isn’t a whole lot you can find to be excited about. His 3.5 yards per carry on the season was terrible, he never topped 100 total yards in a game this season, had more than 4.2 yards per carry in only three games, lost four fumbles and ended the season on IR. The only good news is we saw what he did in college and the talent he possesses, and we know new offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt will make it a priority to get Gordon off to a good start in 2016. I’m definitely buying Gordon at this kind of price tag.
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2.02 – Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
Typical draft range last year – Late first to middle second
Izzy’s thoughts – As much as I dislike Melvin Gordon as a running back prospect, I would have pulled the trigger on him had he not been drafted the pick before I was up. Gordon will be the heaviest climber if he puts together a good start next season, so I like his potential return on investment at his depreciated price. With Gordon off the board I was left with a handful of options and would have gone with Jameis Winston or Ameer Abdullah had Ajayi not been available. He was my number two running back prospect before word of his knee injury destroyed his NFL draft stock. He still offers massive upside as a three-down back and the knee worries me very little. I’d be shocked if Lamar Miller was retained, and Ajayi showed enough in 2015 to be given ample opportunity to be the guy in 2016.
My thoughts – Assuming Miller move on in free agency, Ajayi will be one of the most polarizing players of the off-season. I highly doubt the Dolphins will just hand him the starting role, instead choosing to sign a veteran free agent or draft another rookie as competition, but he will be given an opportunity to compete for the role. It is tough to put too much stock in his 2015 performance since he had a season high of nine touches in one game. At times he looked like a future workhorse, and at others he looked worse than Gordon. Regardless of the long term concerns, his potential role makes him worth a second round pick, even if there are others I would have slotted ahead of him.
2.03 – Jameis Winston, QB TB
Typical draft range last year – Early to middle second
Adam’s thoughts – I saw this pick as a bit of a drop off in talent. I went with the rookie gunslinger out of FSU. Winston ended his rookie campaign as the QB12 in total points and QB18 in points per game. He finished the year winning only six games and lost a head coach to boot. He performed very well against bad defenses, but struggled versus everyone else. I think at times he showed really good mechanics, and for a rookie did pretty well with a shoddy offensive line. He will be a QB1 in the years to come – book it. I also considered Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman and Devin Funchess.
My thoughts – You can sum up Winston’s season by simply saying he was a talented rookie quarterback. At times he looked like a future franchise quarterback and other times he looked completely overwhelmed. Still, topping 20 touchdowns and 4000 yards as a rookie isn’t bad at all. Mix in 200 plus rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, which was second behind only Cam Newton, and it was quite the season. The issue was consistency. This will improve with time, assuming the Bucs can provide him with a consistent system and coaching. I think he’ll be the best quarterback from this draft class.
2.04 – Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
Typical draft range last year – Middle first
My thoughts – 23 receptions for 283 yards and one touchdown could be the stat line for just two games for some of the best receivers in the league. In fact, I’m pretty sure several receivers had better two week stretches than that. Unfortunately for Agholor, Eagles fans and his fantasy owners, this was thirteen games worth of production from the former USC wide out.
Injuries and inconsistent play are to blame for him failing to lock down the full time starting role opposite Jordan Matthews. Instead, he spent a lot of time rotating with lesser talents. Rest assured, Agholor is the superior talent to everyone not named Matthews on the Eagles. He can and should be in for a huge improvement in year two, especially as they move on from Chip Kelly, making him a solid investment at his current price. I also considered Abdullah and Coleman at this pick, because like Agholor they present great value as talented players who struggled as rookies.
2.05 – Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
Typical draft range last year – Middle to late first
Brian’s thoughts – I considered Ameer Abdullah here but ultimately chose Coleman. The emergence of Devonta Freeman makes Coleman a nice buy-low target in the off-season. Coleman has game breaking ability and it appeared the Falcons offense was more productive when the rushing attack was being utilized. Freeman will be the starter, but Coleman has the talent to carry the load if/when he gets another crack at the starting job.
My thoughts – Prior to this season, when the Yeldon/Abdullah/Coleman debate was raging, I was on team Coleman. I didn’t think he would have any issues outplaying Devonta Freeman given what we saw from Freeman as a rookie. Well, Coleman couldn’t stay off the trainer’s table and Freeman wasn’t the same player we saw last year. Combine the two and Coleman ends up as the second string guy. It isn’t all doom and gloom though. Coleman did show well when given the chance, such as his 18 carry for 110 yards against Minnesota. He was better than Freeman in yards per carry for the season, especially over the last half of the season, and he did flash his homerun ability. He was none existent in the passing game though, which might doom him to a committee role.
2.06 – Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
Typical draft range last year – Middle to late first
Scott’s thoughts – I still like Abdullah, and I think he has the athleticism, opportunity and character to be a successful NFL player. He has to get his fumbling tendency under control, as he had five fumbles on 168 total touches in 2015. Per Pro Football Focus, Abdullah finished as the RB26 in pass blocking, and while that’s not ideal, if he improves in this regard, he will be an effective PPR option for the future. His PPR potential gives him a decent floor. I’m not sure his ceiling is more than an RB2 at best, but at 2.06, I think there’s decent value. If he wasn’t available, I’d have picked Devin Funchess. Although he isn’t the best technically refined wide receiver, I think his size and fit in this offense should lead to fantasy production. Funchess had five touchdowns with a limited opportunity, and that’s not too shabby, considering players like Alshon Jeffery had fewer touchdowns with more targets. Funchess and TY Hilton had five touchdowns, but Funchess did it on half the target volume. Funchess probably won’t be a WR1, but he should be a serviceable WR2 if he fulfills his potential.
My thoughts – My concern about Abdullah heading into the season was what role he would play in the NFL. He’s built like a passing down specialist, but the Lions already have Theo Riddick. Plus, Abdullah struggled in pass protection, in part due to his lack of size. That size would also limit his usage in short yardage work, leaving him in limbo when it comes to what he would do. This was almost exactly what happened this season. He was a part time player, seeing less than ten carries a majority of his games due to his part time status. He did flash all-pro talent in the preseason, but he needs to refine his game to reach that potential. It is a long road, but he is well worth a second round pick.
2.07 – Devin Funchess, WR CAR
Typical draft range last year – Late first to early second
Trevor’s thoughts – My knock on Funchess from last year was that he was a wide receiver / tight end ‘tweener’ that I foresaw struggling to make an effective transition to the NFL. The truth is that he showed more in his rookie season than I ever expected from him. Given that he has Kelvin Benjamin coming back to play across from him and Cam Newton slinging him the ball, Funchess has everything he needs to become a solid WR2, something I’ll gladly take in the mid second round. Jaelen Strong was my backup choice.
My thoughts – I was a little surprised just now when I pulled up Funchess’ stats. With absolutely nothing else at the receiver position, I was expecting him to have a solid year. In my head I was thinking his stat line was somewhere around 45 catches for 600 yards and a handful of touchdowns. It was actually just 31 receptions for 473 yards. When you consider a fourth of those came in the week 17 blow out of a terrible Tampa Bay team, it is even more underwhelming. Funchess struggled to adjust to the NFL, catching more than two passes in just four games on the year. Long term, it is tough to figure out the ceiling for Funchess. The Panthers are going to get more weapons. Benjamin will return and they are likely to upgrade the position in the draft and free agency. After all, they can’t keep expecting Newton to carry the entire offense like he has done this season. This could leave Funchess as a situational red zone player, which isn’t what fantasy owners want.
2.08 – Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
Typical draft range last year – Late first to early second
Matt’s thoughts – The Colts selected Dorsett with the 29th pick of the first round. Many in the draft community were surprised with the selection considering other team needs and how similar of a player he is to TY Hilton. At 5’10 185 pounds, he will never be a huge red zone threat; but that isn’t why the Colts drafted him. They drafted him for his blazing speed, which was clocked at 4.27 in his pro day. With both Hilton and Dorsett on the field the Colts have more speed than most defenses can handle. His rookie season was mostly a lost due to an ankle injury (that cost him five games) and the emergence of Donte Moncrief. Andrew Luck missing nine games didn’t help matters either. With Andre Johnson likely not coming back, Dorsett should have a larger role in 2016. My second choice would have been Karlos Williams.
My thoughts – At one point last off-season, the question was if Dorsett was the future wide receiver to own in Indy, instead of Moncrief. Hilton was expected to walk in free agency, and some had Dorsett penciled into that role as soon as next season. A breakout year from Moncrief combined with Hilton re-signing definitely threw a lot of cold water on that fire. Dorsett is still talented, but I think he’s likely to be the third receiver for the Colts for the next several years. His ceiling depends on how well Luck bounces back. Ultimately, Dorsett could end up producing like the Cardinals’ John Brown did this season, but I think that’s the extreme ceiling over the next few years.
2.09 – Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
Typical draft range last year – Early to middle second
Nathan’s thoughts – Marcus Mariota had one of the best seasons among rookies this season. Like any rookie quarterback, he had his ups and downs, but his ups were pretty impressive with a pair of four touchdown games and a pair of three touchdown games. We didn’t get much from Mariota in the running game but I think most of that was the Titans wanting him to learn the game from the pocket. Many, including myself have him as a top six dynasty quarterback already. I know quarterbacks are devalued, but if I can get a top six ranked player late in the second round, I’m doing it every time. If Mariota were off the board, I would’ve gone with Duke Johnson who showed he could be one of the best pass catching backs in the NFL sooner than later.
My thoughts – Mariota will always be compared to Winston, because they are a part of the same class. Both were inconsistent this year, but Mariota had a better completion rate and fewer interceptions. Part of this is the Titans were fairly conservative with their game planning and didn’t ask Mariota to do too much. The other big part was just Mariota’s decision making ability. While I think already calling him a top six quarterback is a little too high, I do think Mariota’s future is bright. The only things which could be holding him back will be stability at the coaching 
positions and lack of weapons around him.
2.10 – Karlos Williams, RB BUF
Typical draft range last year – Late third or later
Eric’s thoughts – I had Marcus Mariota queued up ahead of Williams, but he was selected one spot ahead. Instead I get a power back who outperformed expectations in his rookie year. Without an injury to LeSean McCoy, Williams won’t be much higher than a strong RB3 or flex play. If something does happen to McCoy, he has legit low end RB1 capabilities in the Buffalo offense. He is explosive, can catch the ball and has the ability to grind it out in short yardage situations.
My thoughts – One of the biggest rookie surprises, Williams definitely flashed in 2015. Coming into the season, the question was if the Rex Ryan led Bills could coax Williams back to his 2013 form, because the 2013 version was one of the best college running backs in the country. So far it seems like Rex was able to do just that. Williams showed a great blend of power, speed and ability to change the game in the blink of an eye. Unfortunately, he was very boom or bust. To go with those huge plays were games like 18 carries for 40 yards against the Giants in week four. He’s definitely on the radar and worth a stash in all leagues though with the hope he can become a little more consistent if he gets the opportunity to start again.
2.11 – Duke Johnson, RB CLE
Typical draft range last year – Late first to early second
Karl’s thoughts – Put simply, Hue Jackson is a running back savant. In 2014, Jackson turned Jeremy Hill into the ppr RB10 as a rookie, but Johnson is no Hill. Johnson compares more favorably to fellow Bengals running back, Giovani Bernard. While Hill experienced a sophomore slump in 2015, Bernard endured success. Through the first eleven games, Bernard was the ppr RB10 before tailing off at the end of the year. For a late second round pick, I love the upside Johnson possesses. It’s tough to say who I would have picked had Johnson not been there, as I believe he was the end of a tier. I was hoping Phillip Dorsett would fall, but if my feet were to the fire, I’d probably select Jamison Crowder. I believe Crowder can be a poor man’s Jarvis Landry.
My thoughts – At this point in time it is really tough for me to get excited about anyone in a Browns uniform. Well, now that I think about it, that might be the story of the last few decades. Anyway, from what I saw this year, Johnson is a third down running back in the NFL. Maybe Jackson will try to make him a workhorse, but I didn’t see anything this year which made me think he can run the ball effectively. He had only three games on the year where he had more than 4.0 yards per carry, and his season average of 3.6 yards per carry leaves a lot to be desired. He did excel in the passing game though, which makes him an attractive target in PPR leagues with the potential for some growth if he can get some work on the ground.
2.12 – Matt Jones, RB WAS
Typical draft range last year – Third round
Austan’s thoughts – It was between Buck Allen and Jones. What pushed me over the edge for Jones was the high likelihood Alfred Morris walks this off-season in free agency, making Jones the probable starter in 2016. Opportunity is a lot of the battle. With Justin Forsett on the books for just $3 million over the next two years, he is unlikely to be cut, meaning Allen probably isn’t going to get the same opportunity. Jones’ stats weren’t good this year — especially an ugly 3.4 yards per carry — but Devonta Freeman (3.8 YPC) had a bad rookie year, too. Jones did catch 19-of-25 targets.
My thoughts – After a week two performance which included 22 touches for 146 yards and two touchdowns, Jones’s stock shot through the roof. People were tripping over themselves to anoint him as the future in Washington. While I do think he is the future, I think we once again got a little carried away with the upside part of it. Jones definitely has some talent and potential, but he also has a lot of growth to do. He’s a bit of a project as his performance down the stretch definitely showed. I think Morris is gone, but I expect someone else to come in to compete with Jones for the starting role.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
