Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Chris Ivory, RB NYJ
The running back position in fantasy football has become more and more unpredictable. Injuries, split backfields and specialists are all adding to the unknown. The Jets’ Chris Ivory has been one of the solid selections this season avoiding injuries for the most part and providing top ten fantasy value. This year has seen Ivory cross the 200 carry mark for the first time in a six year career, and he should also hit 1,000 yards rushing. Unfortunately Chris has noticeably dropped off in production down the stretch.
Since Bilal Powell returned, Chris Ivory has been the PPR RB40, RB8, RB26, RB22, RB51 while Powell has been the RB17, RB45, RB3, RB7, RB6.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 22, 2015
Over the last three weeks, Bilal Powell has out-snapped Chris Ivory 103-95. — Alex Gelhar (@AlexGelhar) December 21, 2015
The first four games of the 2015 season saw Ivory amass 460 yards on the ground, but since then his yardage totals have significantly dipped. Chris also scored a total of seven touchdowns over his first seven games only to cross the goal line once over the last six weeks. The presence of Bilal Powell, as Rich and Alex noted, has definitely proved to be part of the reason for the decreased production. But Ivory’s own performance has waned greatly, as he is averaging just 3.34 yards per carry over the last nine games. Ivory has a healthy career average of 4.5 yards per rush so this is definitely concerning. [inlinead]
During the off-season, both 27 year old running backs Ivory and Powell will be free agents, and in this age of the NFL it would seem odd to re-sign a pair of aging though solid runners. Powell was on a one year “prove it” deal and combined the duo only cost the team just under $5 million at the position. But coming off the season he has had, I would assume Ivory will be looking for one last large deal and the team could go a different direction. Right now Ivory sits around 20th overall in the DLF rankings at running back and with the aforementioned uncertainty that seems like a solid placement. Looking closer at the rankings there is wide disparity, with Ivory falling anywhere between 6th overall and 35th. If anyone would be willing to buy Ivory as a top ten value today I would clearly be selling, but I would also be a buyer at 35. Always gauging the value different owners place on players is critical to being successful in fantasy. Keeping an eye on the off-season contract situation will be important, and while Ivory has performed well in aggregate in 2015, I would not expect near the returns anytime in the future.
Calvin Johnson, WR DET
Another player right now whose fantasy value can definitely differ from owner to owner is Detroit’s Calvin Johnson. Calvin has been one of the most dominant wide receivers of all time but after nine seasons he is definitely on the downward slope of his career. The 2015 season has seen stable production in catches and yardage providing a solid floor, but the lack of touchdowns has begun to limit his upside. On the year he has a total of seven but three of those came in one game on Thanksgiving against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. As Evan Silva noted as well the targets have been dropping steadily to finish the season.
Calvin Johnson’s weekly targets in the last month: 14 > 8 > 5 > 1. Has 1 100-yard game this season. Got there on 57-yard catch in OT.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 22, 2015
Part of the decrease is likely due to an ankle injury that has caused Johnson to miss the majority of practice time but never an actual game. For fantasy owners it’s actually worse though for a player to be a decoy or try and gut it out and not produce. The injury history has also been a running story for Calvin over the years. For a player turning 31 in 2016, maintaining a high level of health is not the safest bet. This season has seen the largest decline in fantasy value for Calvin since entering the league. I would expect some owners to continue to value him higher based on name brand alone, but today I would be more apt to go with younger options such as Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks and Martavis Bryant. The Lions still owe Johnson a ton of money and 4for4’s Josh Moore provided an interesting take on the situation tweeting,
Doubt they do it, but #Lions might be better off cutting Calvin Johnson, eating $13M in dead money, and using the other $11M elsewhere. — Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) December 23, 2015
I agree with Josh that the Lions are unlikely to part ways with Calvin next season, but in 2017 he will carry a cap hit of $21 million with just under $5 million in dead money. No way he survives that one, which means he will likely be looking for a new team. Test the waters this off-season and see what people are still looking to pay for the man they call Megatron, but if the season ends closer to how the past two games have gone the market may not be buying at all.
Antonio Brown, WR PIT
Coming into the season Antonio Brown was my number one rated wide receiver. Partially it is because he has moves like this.
When you go 16-189-2 against the league’s best secondary. pic.twitter.com/LNFTFYaEuh
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 21, 2015
Also because his weekly performances cause others to make claims like this,
Antonio Brown is borderline unstoppable. — Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) December 21, 2015
But after the year Odell Beckham Jr. has put up with a far less superior quarterback and supporting cast, Antonio is my number two heading into the off-season. Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins also comes in at number three currently and that is more based on youth compared to the talents of Julio Jones. I have the four of these receivers in a tier of their own and look for them to continue to be the cornerstone of winning fantasy squads for the foreseeable future.
Dwayne Allen, TE IND
One interesting tweet to cross my timeline this week was from Stephen Holder in response to a question regarding the future of Dwayne Allen in Indianapolis.
Not unless they grossly overpay him, which I don’t anticipate. He wants to be featured more, and I can’t blame him. https://t.co/JS4MF5wORv
— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) December 22, 2015
Allen had a great year as a red zone specialist last season catching eight touchdowns on only 29 receptions. As Kyle pointed out as well he was looking to improve upon those number in 2015
Dwayne Allen slimmed down this summer specifically to be more of a passing threat. So far, he has run ~200 less routes than he did 2014, — Kyle J. Rodriguez (@ColtsAuth_Kyle) December 22, 2015
Unfortunately that has not been the case and even running mate Coby Fleener has seen a reduced role in the Colts’ offense. Allen has been blocking more due to offensive line struggles and the team has also focused more on the wide receiver position and featuring more multiple sets. Allen is a free agent heading into the off-season and as Stephen suggested he will not be back with the team. Finding a better landing spot with increased usage could definitely bolster his fantasy stock. Currently Dwayne Allen falls around the 20th overall tight end but most owners likely will be more down on him due to the season he has had. Allen definitely represents one of those cheap, upside plays astute owners are always looking to take advantage of.
David Johnson, RB ARI
Finishing with my favorite fantasy Christmas present of the year, Arizona’s rookie running back David Johnson sent his stock skyrocketing against the hapless Eagles in week 15. Entering the year as third option behind Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson not much was expected. Ellington fell victim to injury early but Johnson maintained a solid role in the offense until he himself was lost for the season in week 12. That finally opened the door by default to what clearly appears to be the best running back on the team by a wide margin. Matt Harmon shared a simple thought highlighting how well-rounded Johnson has appeared in his first season.
David Johnson is one of the most fun players to watch right now. He does so many things so well.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 21, 2015
Whether it has been catching passes out of the backfield, converting goal line opportunities or simply running through and past defenders David Johnson has been a force. Josh Moore also tweeted that,
#Cardinals David Johnson has now started 3 games and sits at RB9 on the season with 149 standard points. #fantasyfootball — Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) December 22, 2015
This may as much an indictment on the running back production in 2015 as it is awe in Johnson’s resume to date, but that is quite ridiculous. Up through this point on the season, Chris Johnson received 67 more total touches than David but has around two-thirds of the fantasy production. Assuming he merely manages to finish the season healthy, David Johnson is going to be a top ten dynasty running back in 2016 and operating within an offense that can only increase his upside potential.
Thank you to 4for4.com, Football Outsiders, Football Guys and NFL Savant for some of the stats used within this article. All are great resources still available for the average fantasy fan and highly recommended.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
