Contrarian Plays: Week 16

Matt Price Posted On December 24, 2015

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Good day and happy holidays everyone! I hope you all made it through the semi-finals and are prepping for your week 16 championship game in your seasonal leagues. Let’s get into the review for week 15.

What worked:

Our quarterbacks absolutely killed it for us last week. Kirk Cousins was a monster, throwing four touchdown passes and running another one in. Cousins came through for 35.86 FanDuel points for our $7,100 – a return of 5x on our investment. Ben Roethlisberger came through as well with 24.9 FanDuel points.

Jeremy Hill didn’t have a big yardage day but did score two touchdowns to help us get a decent return on our investment of $6,000.

DeSean Jackson was huge for us in week 15 with 24.3 FanDuel points on just $6,400.

We got a good score from our tight end selection last week as well. Ben Watson came through with six catches, 49 yards, and a touchdown.

What didn’t work:

Melvin Gordon was a bust unfortunately after going down with a knee injury in the second quarter. The Chargers have placed the rookie on injured reserve.

Brandon Lafell led the Patriots in receiving last week with four catches for 88 yards but didn’t find the endzone and didn’t quite pay off his $6,300 salary. Spending the extra cash to roster Calvin Johnson instead of Golden Tate failed miserably.

Let’s get into the picks for week 16.

Quarterback

Teddy Bridgewater – $6,600

I hesitated to put Teddy on the list for a couple of reasons. After a big game in week 15 there is a chance his ownership spikes this week. With so many other good to great options though I don’t think the rise in ownership will be enough to get him into the top ten. The other potential issue is this: in his week 15 game Bridgewater scored 31% of his total touchdowns for the entire season. There is the potential that he will go back to averaging less than a touchdown a game but I think he will be better going forward. Last season Teddy tore up the league in December and with the Vikings on the precipice of a playoff berth I think they will try to keep the passing game on track. This week they get the Giants at home who are the third best matchup for opposing quarterbacks and allowing 21.9 schedule adjusted points per game to the position.

Jameis Winston – $7,300

The last time I picked Winston in a great matchup against the Saints it didn’t quite work out. His floor was fine and didn’t kill us but he certainly wasn’t a GPP winning quarterback. I’m probably cruisin’ for a bruisin’ for recommending him again. This time he is at home against the Bears who have given up top ten quarterback performances in four of the last five weeks so I think that same safe floor is there. Chicago is currently the second best matchup for opposing quarterbacks and allowing 22.4 points per game. If Winston simply hits the average he will have paid off his salary.

Running Back

Adrian Peterson – $8,200

For the final week of this piece we are going big at running back. Peterson has failed to reach 70 yards rushing in his last three games and only has one touchdown over the same stretch. He had an ankle injury which kept him out for part of the game last week as well. His price on FanDuel is also down $400 from week 15. The public is likely to be off him because of recency bias but don’t be fooled. The Giants are giving up 4.1 YPC and 23.4 points per game to opposing running backs. Some weeks you need to pay up to be contrarian and Peterson qualifies this week at home.

Ameer Abdullah – $5,300

It’s possible Abdullah will be higher owned than I think he will be considering he is coming off his best game of the season on Monday Night. With so many other great budget options though, I don’t think he will hit double digit ownership percentage. Earlier this year we talked about how pass catching running backs on home favorites are the holy grail of DFS. Abdullah qualifies this week at home against the Niners who are giving up 32.8 points per game to opposing running backs. Abdullah is a talent who can take one to the house on any given play and there is a case to be made he will be given even more opportunities to do just that in the final two weeks of the season. I expect him to build on the success he found last week. [inlinead]

Wide Receiver

Martavis Bryant – $7,200

The public will be all over Antonio Brown this week after a nuclear game against the Broncos in week 15. This is another case of zigging while the public is zagging. Bryant is always a threat for a long touchdown reception but recently his floor has been pretty safe as well. That should hold true again this week in a heated matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore is giving up 40.0 points per game on average to opposing wide receivers but the Steelers offense is far from average and there should be plenty of meat on the bone for all the Pittsburgh receivers to get a nice chunk.

Kamar Aiken – $6,600

The Steelers pass defense might be as bad as their offense is good. After allowing a combined 15 receptions, 242 yards and three touchdowns to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders last week Pittsburgh is now the best matchup in the league for opposing wide receivers. They are allowing 48.3 points per game to the position. Baltimore’s offense is in shambles but Aiken has been one of the few bright spots. He isn’t Thomas or Sanders but Aiken is perfectly capable of putting up some points against this defense in week 16 and he will be severely under owned making him a great GPP play.

Willie Snead – $6,000

Do yourself a favor and get a piece of JAC@NO in DFS this week. Both pass defenses are terrible and both pass offenses are explosive so the shootout potential is huge. Snead will likely be the lowest owned receiver on both teams despite having 21 receptions for 248 yards over his last three games. He has not scored since week eight so Snead is a candidate for some positive touchdown regression as well.

Tight End

Will Tye – $5,100

With Odell Beckham suspended for the week 16 game against the Vikings, Will Tye becomes a very intriguing option. Tye has scored at least 8.1 FanDuel points in each of his last five games and at least five receptions and a touchdown in his last two. The Giants pass catchers are a wasteland without Beckham, so Tye should surpass those numbers with even more opportunity in week 16. He is a player with a nice combination of floor, ceiling, and price this week.

Defense

Buffalo – $4,600

The Bills check all the boxes this week. They are a home favorite playing against a mistake prone inexperienced quarterback in Kellen Moore. The Bills have completely gone off the rails after a blowout loss to Washington in week 15 and the unit we thought would be elite with all that talent under Rex Ryan have massively underachieved. That said, the talent is still there and it should be all they need against a rudderless Dallas team in full on implosion.

Final Note

Thanks to everyone for following this column all season long. We’ve had some very good weeks and some really horrible ones, but that’s how it goes sometimes for a contrarian player. Good luck in all of your seasonal league championships this week as well as your daily games. This is the final week of this column but feel free to contact me on twitter with any questions you may have in week 17 and beyond. Happy Holidays everyone!

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Matt Price

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Senior writer and co-host of the DLF Dynasty podcast, the longest running dynasty focused podcast on the planet

Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.

Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.