Contrarian Plays: Week 15

Matt Price

roethlisbergerThere are just two weeks left in the fantasy football season so let’s end on a high note and get that DFS money. First we need to check ourselves and see how we did in week 14.

What worked:

The revenge game for LeSean McCoy didn’t quite work out the way Buffalo had hoped, but thanks to his 53 yards rushing Tyrod Taylor managed a decent fantasy day with 19.02 points for our $7,500. A bigger day was there for Ryan Tannehill but Lamar Miller took two touchdowns out of the pie. He still managed to pay off his salary with 15.84 points for our $6,900, but it wasn’t as good a week for him as we had hoped based on the matchup.

I took a lot of flack last week for my recommendation on Eddie Lacy, but just as I expected, the Packers leaned on him when they needed it the most. Lacy paid off his $6,200 salary with 148 total yards and a touchdown – good for 21.3 FanDuel points.

Alshon Jeffery was back in a big way with 19.7 FanDuel points, Eric Decker came through for us with 16.9, and Allen Hurns was able to feast on lesser coverage for 18 FanDuel points.

What didn’t work:

We were right about Ryan Mathews getting the bulk of the carries in his first week back but unfortunately the production did not come with the volume and despite his ridiculously low salary, he did not pay it off. Austin Seferian-Jenkins played more snaps than the previous week but also failed to pay off his salary – only getting us 4.6 points on FanDuel.

Let’s get into the week 15 picks!

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins, QB WAS – $7,100

It’s a tough week to be contrarian at quarterback, but we will do our best here. Cousins faces a Buffalo defense that hasn’t given up fewer than ten points to opposing quarterbacks this season. This is also a home game for Cousins and or our purposes that matters. Cousins has averaged 24.11 fantasy points per game at home (including two QB1 overall performances) and just 15.44 points on the road. With the Redskins still in the hunt for the NFC East title, I expect Cousins to be up for this game and in full on “YOU LIKE THAT!?” mode.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT – $8,000

This is a case of paying up to be contrarian. The Steelers are one of the best offenses in the league but the Broncos are one of the best defenses in the league. You may be wondering why we would gamble with such a bad matchup, but remember a few weeks ago when the Steelers played the Seahawks in Seattle? Roethlisberger put up 456 yards and a passing touchdown against them. The point is, the Steelers offense is relatively matchup proof. Need more evidence? This is also a home game for Pittsburgh against a west coast team traveling east. You owe it to yourself to take a look at his home and road splits as well. Roethlisberger is averaging 28.8 fantasy points per game at home this season against just 16.61 at home. This is a must-win game for the Steelers to stay in playoff contention. You better believe they will get up for this one so don’t let the perceived bad matchup scare you off of a top tier quarterback. [inlinead]

Running Back

Jeremy Hill, RB CIN – $6,000

The game script got away from the Bengals last week against the Steelers and AJ McCarron was forced to throw the ball more than I’m guessing the team wanted him to. This week they have a much better matchup for the running game and I’m betting they lean on Hill against the Niners at home. San Francisco is allowing the second most points to opposing running backs this season at 32.6 points per game. I would be shocked if the Bengals didn’t rely on the running game more in week 15.

Melvin Gordon, RB SD – $5,300

Given the state of the Chargers offense, this is purely a speculative swing for the fences kind of play. Gordon has disappointed mightily this season, but has flashed the ability that made us all so excited for his situation in San gordon-2Diego coming into the 2015 season. With the Chargers firmly out of the playoff hunt and a great matchup at home, I expect the team to give Gordon a decent workload so they can see what they have with this kid going into 2016. Miami is giving up the third most fantasy points to running backs at 30.0 points per game and they are traveling all the way across the country. If you find yourself in a spot this week where you need to save some cash, consider Gordon as your second running back in what could be his coming out party.

Wide Receiver

Brandon LaFell, WR NE – $6,300

Given his recent play, this seems like a crazy recommendation, but remember these picks are meant solely for GPPs and a big part of this selection is ownership level. Everyone is going to be on Danny Amendola or Rob Gronkowski this week and for good reason. The Titans have given up 11 receiving touchdowns over their last three games. I don’t think that trend will be reversing this week when Tennessee travels to Foxborough. Zig while everyone else is zagging this week and consider the potentially very low owned LaFell in week 15.

DeSean Jackson, WR WAS – $6,400

One of my favorite tournament stacks this week is Cousins/DJax. Jackson’s price is down $300 this week and as previously discussed, his quarterback plays much better at home. The Bills are a middle of the road pass defense and really nothing to be scared of. They gave up a 53 yard touchdown last week to Nelson Agholor. Jackson is capable of this and more. He has always been a boom/bust type of player and his boom weeks are often the kind which will help you win a GPP. Look for him to get one deep in week 15.

Calvin Johnson, WR DET – $8,000

Megatron killed fantasy owners last week. Those who played him in the playoffs of their seasonal leagues are especially sore after a one catch for 16 yard performance. This sets him up perfectly as a GPP play for us as basically anyone who relied on him are unlikely to use him again this week. Considering the matchup he has in week 15, that could be a huge mistake. The Lions travel to the Superdome to face a Saints team giving up 40.9 points per game to opposing wide receivers. Golden Tate is both cheaper and and is coming off a big game, but don’t fall victim to recency bias. Pay the extra $1,100 to get Megatron in some lineups for week 15.

Tight End

Benjamin Watson, TE NO – $5,600

It could be a shootout in the Superdome on Sunday and I like both tight ends in this game. My first choice this week for tournaments however, is Watson, who is averaging nine targets per game over the last three weeks. Detroit is allowing 16.1 points per game to opposing tight ends this season and if Watson hits that benchmark he pays off his salary big time. Anything else he gets is just gravy.

Defense

Jacksonville – $4,400

The Falcons are allowing the third most fantasy points (12.0) to opposing defenses this season which puts us at right around the number of points we are looking for to pay off the Jaguars salary in week 15. They are also playing at home against a quarterback who has thrown for at least one interception in each of the last four games. The Falcons offense is a trainwreck right now and didn’t score a single point last week against Carolina. I love the Jags price and situation this week at home against the Falcons.

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matt price