Dynasty Stock Market: Running Back Value

Ryan McDowell Posted On December 11, 2015

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This is the second part of a four-part series taking a deep look at the state of each position through the lens of my current dynasty rankings. This week, I want to dig into the running back position, which is always a challenge to evaluate. In recent years, the running back position as a whole has steadily lost value. It seems that outside of a couple of elite talents, most dynasty owners would rather piece together a crop of backs with unknown situations who may or may not pay off.

When building new teams, I typically punt the running back position, as I detailed in this article. This obviously results in an uncertain collection of backs and makes it imperative to follow the latest news in order to play the waiver wire. Just this year, that could’ve resulted in rostering players like Dion Lewis, Charcandrick West or Thomas Rawls. Even one of those could have been a season changing player for dynasty teams.

The ever-shortening life span of a running back and the increase of running back by committee attacks have partnered to decimate their dynasty value. These trends have caused me to basically avoid using high startup draft picks on running backs. I also shy away from paying the high prices to acquire top backs via trades in existing leagues.

Let’s get to my current running back tiers. With more players to cover, I’ll be sharing some general thoughts about my tiers, rather than covering all individual players.

Tier One:

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I try to limit my top tier of running backs to elite talents, regardless of age. It could be argued that based on that, Adrian Peterson belongs here, and I wouldn’t strongly disagree. Instead though, I have just the two players that form the consensus top two dynasty running backs, Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell. The dynasty value of each of these players may have taken the slightest of hits lately with Bell’s season ending injury and the poor play of Gurley in recent weeks, but it is really inconsequential at this point.

As soon as the off-season begins, and it already has for some of you, injuries and struggles are things of the past and we as a dynasty community begin to focus on the upside and best case scenario for the game’s top players. Sometimes, that can get us in trouble as we begin overpaying for potential, but in this case, it is no concern as this pair represents the most talented backs in the league.

I expect both Bell and Gurley to be among the top 15 players drafted in dynasty startup drafts, but as much as I love their talent, I would still easily prefer to build my team with cornerstone wide receivers in the first two rounds.

RB1 Todd Gurley, STL

RB2 Le’Veon Bell, PIT

Tier Two:

This second tier in my rankings is huge, as is the gap between this tier and the previously mentioned group of two elite players. While I’m sure it will happen at some point, it’s difficult to envision any player cracking the top tier with Gurley and Bell.

This group, comprised of 21 running backs, is an assortment of various ball-carriers. There are old and young, starters and backups, pass catchers and three down backs, and soon, there will be at least two rookies. Expect both Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry to make their rankings debut in the top 25.

For the record, here’s a quick rundown of the multitude of players I have ranked in this second tier:

RB3 Devonta Freeman, ATL

RB4 TJ Yeldon, JAX

RB5 Mark Ingram, NO

RB6 Lamar Miller, MIA

RB7 Latavius Murray, OAK

RB8 Adrian Peterson, MIN

RB9 Giovani Bernard, CIN

RB10 Jeremy Hill, CIN

RB11 Eddie Lacy, GB

RB12 Duke Johnson, CLE

RB13 Melvin Gordon, SD

RB14 LeSean McCoy, PHI

RB15 Doug Martin, TB

RB16 DeMarco Murray, PHI

RB17 Dion Lewis, NE

RB18 Carlos Hyde, SF

RB19 Matt Forte, CHI

RB20 Jamaal Charles, KC

RB21 Thomas Rawls, SEA

RB22 Chris Ivory, NYJ

RB23 Marshawn Lynch, SEA

Unlike the top tier, this tier is very flexible and the order of players changes often. An injury, a move to a new team or a new running back coming in could quickly move many of these backs down or completely out of this tier.

My mindset with most of these backs is very short-term, sometimes as short as a one-year window. This means a breakout player like Freeman or Lewis can quickly rise up my ranks when they are producing. It also means players who are disappointing can quickly move down. At one time, I had Gordon, the Chargers’ rookie running back, ranked as a top five option. With a subpar first season, he’s moving down. I value this tier almost in line with their current production, or as I would if playing in a redraft league.

Tier Three:

This next tier is filled with players who could easily move up a level with some positive news, or even a string of impressive games. While there are a couple of outliers, like the injured Arian Foster, the majority of this group is younger players, including eight rookies. Some have already drawn some starts for their team, while other project as a starter as soon as the 2016 season. Regardless, this is almost exclusively a group of players on the rise.

RB24 Ameer Abdullah, DET

RB25 Jonathan Stewart, CAR

RB26 David Johnson, ARZ

RB27 Jay Ajayi, MIA

RB28 Jeremy Langford, CHI

RB29 Tevin Coleman, ATL

RB30 Matt Jones, WAS

RB31 Karlos Williams, BUF

RB32 CJ Anderson, DEN

RB33 Ronnie Hillman, DEN

RB34 Javorius Allen, BAL

RB35 Arian Foster, HOU

RB36 Charcandrick West, KC

RB37 Isaiah Crowell, CLE

There is some obvious risk with each of these players. Most of them are unproven and could become the next Christine Michael or David Wilson: total non-producers. I’ve already mentioned Foster, and the concern with him of course surrounds his season ending injury, which some are speculating could end his time with the Texans.

Tier Four:

The fourth tier is another large group, spanning from RB38 (Justin Forsett) all the way down to RB85 (Pierre Thomas). Basically, any running back ranked outside of this fourth group is not really worth a roster spot, in my view.

Inside this tier though, are some players who have proven very valuable in the short-term, including Forsett, LeGarrette Blount, Danny Woodhead, DeAngelo Williams and Darren McFadden. It’s hard to trust the value beyond the next year or two with any of these, which results in them falling in this range.

Some younger players from this tier that I will be stashing or attempting to buy on the cheap this off-season include Jerick McKinnon, Charles Sims, Khiry Robinson and Theo Riddick.

Check here for a complete list of my running back rankings.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.