Contrarian Plays: Week 14

Matt Price

mathews

Welp, most dynasty leagues wrapped up their regular season last week and are headed to the wildcard round of the playoffs in week 14. Maybe you missed them or have a first round bye this season but still want to have some fantasy football fun this week. Daily fantasy sports are a great way to fill the void so let’s get to the week 13 review and the picks for week 14.

What worked:

Alex Smith hit cash game value, but in retrospect, he never really had a high enough ceiling to be a GPP winning play. He didn’t kill us but he didn’t help the cause either.

Jonathan Stewart helped us out with 113 total yards and a touchdown, nearly hitting 3x value. Jeremy Hill was solid as well with 98 yards and a touchdown.

Devante Parker scored a touchdown for the second straight week and paid off his $5200 salary with 13.8 points

What didn’t:

Jay Cutler failed to throw a touchdown pass. For those counting at home, Cutler now has one total touchdown in his last three games.

It’s clear the Bengals wanted to use this game with the Browns to get Hill on track. He dominated the running back touches with 22 to just six for Giovani Bernard.

Outside of Frank Gore no one on the Colts was fantasy relevant this week. That includes T.Y. Hilton who I thought would go deep for one but instead gave us just three catches for 36 yards. Not quite what we wanted for our $7300. Brandon LaFell is just terrible and only caught four balls for 27 yards.

Hey look everybody! Kyle Rudolph let us down again. It’s the last time we use a Vikings pass catcher this season.

Let’s get into the picks for week 14.

Quarterback

Tyrod Taylor – $7500

This is a bit of narrative street but I really think LeSean McCoy is going to get his team up for this game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. There have been reports he has been going to each player and telling them how important this game is. Taylor is coming off a big game against the Texans in which he threw for three touchdown passes and the weakness of the Philadelphia defense lies in their secondary. The Eagles are giving up the fourth most schedule adjusted points to the quarterback position at 21.1 points per game. Taylor has a floor of around 15 points and if he hits the average the Eagles are allowing to opposing quarterbacks then we have already hit GPP value. Anything else we get is gravy.

Ryan Tannehill – $6900

Last week against the Ravens Tannehill had just nine completions on 19 attempts, 86 yards and 1 touchdown as the Dolphins made it a point to run the ball. Look for Tannehill to get back on track this week at home against the Giants at home. The Giants are giving up 20 points to opposing quarterbacks – fifth most in the league.

Running Back

Ryan Mathews – $4700

Don’t think for a minute this isn’t one of the most important games of the season for Chip Kelly. Not only do the Eagles need the win to help them in a heated race for the NFC title and the only playoff spot for the division, but it’s also a game against a certain vocal former Eagles running back. Demarco Murray was out-snapped by both Darren Sproles and Kenjon Barner in week 13 and this week Mathews returns to the lineup. Mathews was running better than Murray earlier this season before the injury and many wondered why they weren’t going with the better runner. It looks like Mathews is going to get his chance this week against a Bills team allowing 25.7 points per game to opposing running backs. Keep an eye on the practice reports to make sure he plays this week, but at $4700 he needs less than 15 points to pay off GPP value.

Eddie Lacy – $6200

[inlinead]Lacy? Seriously? After a five carry for four yard and one catch for negative three yards performance against the Lions last Thursday I must be crazy to recommend him this week against the Cowboys. I might be. I love Lacy this week despite everything screaming “NO” at us and let me tell you why. First off, there is almost no chance he is highly owned this week. Secondly, I believe Lacy hit rock bottom last week and experienced a near career death moment as he was forced to sit and watch a practice squad player get more work than he did. Lastly, the Packers need him to be the Lacy of old right now more than ever. They got a last second win on a miraculous play to keep them firmly in the hunt for the NFC North title, but it’s clear they are still an offense in disarray. The past two seasons the Packers have leaned heavily on Lacy in December and I expect a return to that this week against the Cowboys. Reports out of Packers practice this week about Lacy have been very good. Take a leap of faith this week and consider Lacy as a GPP play against a middle of the road Dallas run defense.

Wide Receiver

Alshon Jeffery – $7500

The Redskins are allowing the 10th-most points per game (37.4) to the wide receiver position this season and Jeffery has at least 11 targets in every game he has played this season except for week 10. He is also a likely candidate for some positive touchdown regression as he only has two on the season. After getting burned by a relatively uninspiring four for 85 last week in what was considered a plus matchup, the public will likely not be on him as much in week 14 which makes him a nice high floor and high ceiling play in GPPs.

Eric Decker – $7300

The Titans are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers over the last three weeks and Decker has been one of the most consistent receivers this season. He has at least 81 yards or a touchdown in every single game this season. I love the safe floor with upside combination that Decker offers us in week 14.

Marvin Jones – $6200

The Bengals have one of the most important games of the season in week 14 when the division rival Steelers come to Cincinnati. Luckily for them Pittsburgh is giving it up to wide receivers and currently sit as the 2nd worst team against them at 42.8 points per game. Most will be on AJ Green but Jones has similar touchdown upside, lower ownership, and costs $2300 less. Jones had a nice game against the Browns last week and I expect him to follow it up with another nice game this week against a hated foe.

Allen Hurns – $6600

The Jaguars are a much better fantasy offense than they are an NFL team right now but for us that’s all that matters. Allen Robinson was a huge piece in week 13 against the Titans and after putting up 10 receptions for 153 yards and three touchdowns you better believe the public is going to be all over him in week 14 at home against the Colts. Last week the Jaguars were without fellow wide receiver Hurns though. This week Hurns returns and has the much better matchup. Zig while others are zagging and consider rostering Hurns this week instead of Robinson while saving $1900 in the process.

Tight End

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – $5500

ASJ was back on the field week 13 albeit for just 30 percent of the snaps. I expect the Bucs to ramp up his usage this week against the Saints who are allowing the most points in the league to the tight end position at 19.1 points per game.

Defense

San Francisco – $4300

The Niners have been a much better defense at home this season but put up a decent showing against the Bears last week on the road. This week they travel to Cleveland to face a Browns team giving up the most fantasy points (12.7) per game to opposing defenses and this week Johnny Manziel is their starting quarterback.

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matt price