The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly Truth: Week 12

Jacob Feldman

wheaton

One of the things we as human beings tend to do an awful lot of in our lives is react to the things we see around us. Often times this is a good thing. For example, if a car just so happens to be driving down the same sidewalk you are walking on, you better get out of the way! That’s definitely a good reaction.

There is another side of the coin, though – that is the gross overreaction which is becoming more and more common into today’s world, thanks in part to social media. This isn’t just in life but also in the world of fantasy football. It isn’t uncommon for the smallest of things are blown way out of proportion. Other times what should be a minor blip on the radar gets way more attention than it deserves. There are also times when we ignore all of the warning signs and try to stay the course, not realizing we are heading for a cliff. Don’t worry though, because I’m here to help with these very things.

Each week I will examine a player or sometimes multiple players to see if their value is on par with what people are talking about. Often times this will be a player who “breaks out” the previous week and might be getting a lot of attention in trade talks or on the waiver wire. Other times it might be a player who received a lot of hype during the off-season who isn’t living up to expectations. Regardless of what it is, I’ll be doing my best to steer you in the right direction and get you a step ahead of your leaguemates.

Keep in mind that no one is perfect. After all, I told you to ignore Justin Forsett after opening weekend last year. Hey, we all make mistakes, but I like to think I’ve had a pretty good track record over the years of doing this. Two years ago, I was one of the first to lay out why you needed to trade Trent Richardson for whatever you could get, much like the Browns had done a week or two before. At the time I was blasted by readers, but if you listened you sold before his value crashed. I was also dead on with Larry Donnell fading down the stretch, Allen Hurns being good enough to stay ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, Antone Smith being little more than a rarely used home-run hitter, and countless other takes from the last few years. Moral of the story, I miss from time-to-time like everyone else, but I feel I get it right much more often. When I’m wrong, I’ll own that mistake.

Looking back at week 12, there were a lot of great performances and an awful lot of duds. It was very much a boom or bust week for fantasy owners. Calvin Johnson showing up for three touchdowns on Thanksgiving and Russell Wilson throwing for five on Sunday come to my mind right away as some of the best games, but they are both every week starters and that isn’t what I look at here. Instead, let’s take a look at the career day of a young Pittsburgh receiver, Markus Wheaton.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Markus Wheaton, WR PIT

Season stats: 25 receptions for474 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Week 12 stats:9 receptions for 201 yards and a score.

Going back a few months there was a whole lot of hype around the Steelers offense, and it was for a good reason. They were the only offense in the league with an elite running back and an elite receiver on their roster. When you sprinkle in a quarterback coming off of a season with nearly 5,000 yards there was a lot to be excited about. The biggest question was who was going to step up as the second receiver. The battle was on between Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton. Wheaton had the extra year of NFL experience, but Bryant has the size advantage. There were back and forth reports about who was leading the race, but things cleared up in a hurry when Bryant was suspended for the first four games of the season.

There were a lot of owners who went all in on Wheaton at that point, thinking he was a lock for high end WR3 if not WR2 numbers in that offense. People figured with the first chunk of the NFL season to showcase his skills he would be locked into the starting role. That isn’t exactly what happened. Even with the Steelers sitting Bryant down for an extra game to make this displeasure known, Wheaton failed to capitalize. In the first five games of this season, Wheaton totaled only nine receptions. If you take out his one catch in week 5, which was a 72 yard touchdown, it was just eight catches for 156 yards in the first four games. Considering the opportunity it was definitely a disappointment. When Bryant came out nearly equaled Wheaton’s production through the first month with six catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns in just one game, the discussion of who was the second receiver was put to rest very quickly.

Then week 12 came along with Wheaton’s dismantling of the once dominant Seahawks pass defense. He posted 201 yards on nine receptions, and it made us wonder if there was room for three productive receivers in the Steelers’ offense. After all, Heath Miller is declining and the best offenses in the league can often support three targets week in and week out.

The Good:Wheaton entered the 2013 draft as one of the more productive receivers in that draft. His best year saw him catch 91 receptions for 1,244 yards and scored 11 touchdowns, so he definitely has the pedigree. He did it with great speed (he is a former track star), extreme quickness and great hands. He made a lot of catches outside of his frame and tracks the deep ball well. Mix in someone with better than average body control and you have a solid package. In the pros, he has often described as being a hard worker, which is always a plus. He has worked on his route running as well as trying to earn the trust of his teammates.

The Bad: A lot of the issues with Wheaton come down to his size. At only 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds, he is a little undersized for an NFL wide receiver. While some receivers have been successful as outside receivers with that frame, they are more often the exception rather than the rule. Wheaton has and continues to struggle with physical corners, especially when they press him. He also struggles on contested catches more often than not as defenders can often out muscle him and knock the ball away.

Wheaton has also had some issues with his route running and how he approaches the ball at the point of the catch. Far too often Wheaton would round his routes, failing to make full advantage of his explosiveness. He also tends to wait for the ball at times instead of going after it. This has made a lot of balls contested which shouldn’t have been. This is a problem since Wheaton tends to lose those contested situations.

Another concern for Wheaton is his production prior to week 12. Wheaton was given every opportunity not just last season, when Bryant was a rookie, but over the first five games of this season to take control of the job. He has failed time and time again. In fact, even though Sunday was Wheaton’s 39th game in the NFL, it was the first time he has ever topped 100 yards and only the second time he’s had more than five catches. This is especially concerning when you consider he was a “starting” receiver for 20 of those games.

The Ugly Truth: Wheaton has talent. There is no denying that. We saw it on display on Sunday and we definitely saw it when he was in college. The question is where has it been for the two and a half years in between those two? It is possible he has just taken some time to adjust to the NFL game and NFL defenses. However, it is also possible he just doesn’t have the right combination of skills and size to be a productive player in the NFL. I think the truth is, of course, somewhere in the middle.

Wheaton isn’t going to be a great receiver in the NFL. It isn’t just a size thing for him. He has so far lacked the killer instinct required to make up for his lack of size. If you watch any of the great smaller receivers like Steve Smith, Antonio Brown, Wes Welker or Julian Edelman, they are all relentless players who refuse to lose, especially at the point of the catch. I don’t see the same characteristic when I watch Wheaton play.

I think Wheaton’s breakout game was largely a result of game planning. He was simply better than the third cornerback of the Seahawks. With a large amount of the defensive focus going to Brown and Bryant, it left Wheaton one on one with a defender he was able to beat over and over. His 13 targets, nine receptions and 201 yards were all career highs. It wouldn’t surprise me if we are able to say the same exact thing five years from now.

Wheaton his an NFL-caliber receiver, but he isn’t going to be anything more than the third receiver on the vast majority of NFL teams. He might have a solid game from time to time based on the matchup, but he’s going to be inconsistent and will lack a high ceiling most of the time. He has some big play ability, but I foresee a lot of 3-4 catches for 45-60 yard games for him. Not exactly the kind of production I would want to count on.

Final Verdict: I think we likely saw the best game of Wheaton’s career on Sunday. He’s good enough to see the field as the third receiver, but he isn’t good enough to be a consistent and reliable fantasy contributor. He might have a few solid games like Sunday, but they are going to be few and far between. If you have him, now might be your best chance to move him for something a little more reliable or with higher upside.

[/am4show]

jacob feldman