Sunday Six Pack: Week Seven

Jarrett Behar

sixpack

  1. Don’t You (Forget About Shady McCoy)

Slow change may pull us apart.  Despite early season struggles and injuries, Bills RB LeSean McCoy is still the RB19 in average PPR FPs per game with 13.3.  Last week against the Bengals and without starting QB Tyrod Taylor or WR Percy Harvin in the lineup, McCoy managed 90 yards and a TD on 17 carries against the Bengals. With rookie RB Karlos Williams once again out with a concussion, McCoy gets the Jaguars in London and their 14th ranked rushing defense that is giving up 101.7 yards per game. With Taylor, Harvin and Sammy Watkins on the shelf, McCoy should be in for a decent workload again this week and a good shot to provide RB1 value. McCoy gets another good matchup against Miami next week. If he puts together another two good games, it will probably be a good time to squeeze the last value you can out of Shady.  It looks like Jaguars RB TJ Yeldon will return this week from a groin injury. In a tough matchup against a Bills defense that is fourth in the league against the run, giving up just 87.2 yards per game, Yeldon is just in the FLEX conversation. With Stephon Gilmore likely to shadow Allen Robinson, this is looking like a good game for Allen Hurns again (the PPR WR16) and another decent week for the Julius Thomas show (seven receptions for 78 yards and a TD on 13 targets last week).

  1. Careless Melvin

Guilty feet have got no rhythmChargers rookie RB Melvin Gordon has had fumblitis in his first professional year (four total lost fumbles, [inlinead]including two in Week 6), continue a trend from college where Gordon lost six fumbles in 2014 at Wisconsin. That, plus an ankle injury, does not bode well for the immediate future of his workload. If you are a Gordon believer, this may provide a decent buy-low opportunity over the coming weeks. If you are and have been a Danny Woodhead believer, then this is good news for owner of the overall PPR RB6, who looks to be in line for an increased workload as a runner going forward, especially this week in a must-win game for the 2-4 Chargers.  Hopefully, Antonio Gates knee cooperates in this tasty matchup against the Raiders, whose ineptitude at defending all TEs not named Owen Daniels probably makes Ladarius Green also startable even if he may only see four to six targets.  The Latavius Murray breakout hasn’t been as exciting as expected, but he’s still a good RB2 checking in at the PPR RB17 through six weeks.  The Chargers are ranked just 29th against the run, giving up a whopping 132.5 rushing yards per game, so start him with confidence this week.

  1. Don’t Worry, Start Devonta Freeman

I’m not worried, I’m happy.  Falcons RB Devonta Freeman is the runaway PPR1 through six weeks with 61.3 more PPR points than PPR RB2 Matt Forte.  He’s averaging 7.3 more PPR FPs than the RB2 in terms of average FPs per game Le’Veon Bell. All of this has been accomplished with Freeman averaging just 11 carries a game the first two weeks of the season when rookie Tevin Coleman was the starter. His lowest PPR total since then has been 32.7 against the Redskins in Week 5. In fact, Freeman is the top overall PPR point scorer ahead of all QBs and the QB1 Andy Dalton by approximately 12 FPs depending on your QB scoring. It’s simply been amazing what Freeman has been able to do so far, and there’s no sign of slowing down. I see people talking about selling Freeman high, but he hasn’t looked like a fluke to me. Unless you were supremely rebuilding and Freeman was your only piece, personally I’d ride him out. The Titans RB carry distribution for Week 6 went:  Antonio Andrews9, Dexter McCluster:  5. Bishop Sankey: 3.  And that was against a Dolphins team that is still ranked 31st against the run after giving up just 63 rushing yards to the Titans last week. Needless to say avoid all Titans runners, but monitor rookie David Cobb who has finally returned to practice and is eligible to play starting in Week 9.

  1. Never Gonna Give Todd Gurley Up

A full commitment’s what I’m thinking of.  Rams RB Todd Gurley has racked up 305 yards on 49 carries over the last two weeks good for 6.22 yards per carry. Now Gurley gets the Cleveland Browns in Week 7 and their rushing defense that is ranked dead last in the NFL in average yards per game given up at a staggering 149.8. With a likely third-straight dominant performance, Gurley is paying earlier dividends than expected coming off of last year’s ACL team and is establishing himself as one of the top, if not the top overall, dynasty RBs. At this point you have a much better chance of getting someone to fall for a Rick Roll than you do of trading for Todd Gurley in dynasty. In the Cleveland backfield, both Duke Johnson (RB21) and Isaiah Crowell (RB25) are actually Top 25 PPR RBs.  The problem has been figuring out who to start and when to start them. Crowell has three weeks over 13 PPR FPs and three weeks under 6.5 PPF FPs. Johnson has three weeks over 9.5 PPR FPs and three weeks under that number. For a team that’s passing the ball well (ninth overall in the league at 272.3 passing yards per game), Cleveland’s running game has been lagging behind (25th in the league at just 91.8 yards per game). If you need to start someone, I’d pick Johnson due to his third-down work and pass catching skills, but it’s hard to get too excited about it.

  1. Chris Ivory’s Theme (The Best That You Can Do)

Wondering to yourself, “Hey, what have I found?”  Despite having just six receptions in five games, Jets RB Chris Ivory is still the PPR RB11 through six weeks, ahead of many RBs that haven’t even had their bye-week yet. This is all the more impressive as Ivory is just 12th in the league in carries. This 5.5 yards-per-carry average is tied for third in the league among RBs with at least 50 carries. He is also tied for third with his four TDs. Ivory is showing that you don’t need to catch passes to be a PPR RB1 in this league. Ivory’s opponent this week, the New England Patriots, are ranked just 22nd in the league in average running yards per game on defense, giving up 114.6. With the Jets expected to try to control the clock and keep Tom Brady and company off of the field, look for a big day from Ivory. While LeGarrette Blount had his predictable big game against the Indianapolis Colts last week, he’ll face a much stiffer task in the Jets second ranked rushing defense that is only giving up an average of 82.6 rushing yards per game. He may see some volume, however, if Dion Lewis continues to be limited with his abdomen injury. If Lewis is fairly healthy, however, he could catch a fair number of passes and bounce back from his lackluster Week 6 performance (four carries for 21 yards and three receptions for 18 yards).

  1. I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For (In the Redskins Backfield)

I have held the hand of a devil.  Through six weeks, the leading PPR FP scorer in the Redskins backfield is…

Chris Thompson, checking in at RB33 overall despite limited useage the first two weeks. Matt Jones, after a big week two, has cracked the ten PPR FP just once since then behind a rushing TD last week and is current just the PPR RB46. And Alfred Morris has averaged just 10.5 carries a game over the last four weeks and is ranked as the PPR RB55. Thompson is listed as doubtful this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 25th ranked rushing defense that is giving up an average of 120.4 rushing yards per game, which should give Morris and Jones a boost. Jones will likely pick up Thompson’s third-down work, making him the better bet, but Morris could possibly get things going this week and rip off a few big ones. Both of those RBs are startable this week for teams that have injuries or bye-week issues, but neither are a sure bet. After a slow start, Doug Martin comes out of his Week 6 bye as the PPR RB9 with two big games against the Panthers and Jaguars in Weeks 4 and 5. The Redskins defense is ranked just 23rd against the run giving up an average of 118.2 yards per game. Martin has surpassed 20 carries in three of last four games and is a must-start RB1 for this matchup. Those that bought into the preseason hype are finally starting to get their payoff.

[ad5]