The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Truth: Week Six
One of the things we as human beings tend to do an awful lot of in our lives is react to the things we see around us. Often times this is a good thing. For example, if a car just so happens to be driving down the same sidewalk you are walking on, you better get out of the way! That’s definitely a good reaction.
There is another side of the coin, though – that is the gross overreaction which is becoming more and more common into today’s world, thanks in part to social media. This isn’t just in life but also in the world of fantasy football. It isn’t uncommon for the smallest of things are blown way out of proportion. Other times what should be a minor blip on the radar gets way more attention than it deserves. There are also times when we ignore all of the warning signs and try to stay the course, not realizing we are heading for a cliff. Don’t worry though, because I’m here to help with these very things.
Each week I will examine a player or sometimes multiple players to see if their value is on par with what people are talking about. Often times this will be a player who “breaks out” the previous week and might be getting a lot of attention in trade talks or on the waiver wire. Other times it might be a player who received a lot of hype during the off-season who isn’t living up to expectations. Regardless of what it is, I’ll be doing my best to steer you in the right direction and get you a step ahead of your leaguemates.
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Keep in mind that no one is perfect. After all, I told you to ignore Justin Forsett after opening weekend last year. Hey, we all make mistakes, but I like to think I’ve had a pretty good track record over the years of doing this. Two years ago, I was one of the first to lay out why you needed to trade Trent Richardson for whatever you could get, much like the Browns had done a week or two before. At the time I was blasted by readers, but if you listened you sold before his value crashed. I was also dead on with Larry Donnell fading down the stretch, Allen Hurns being good enough to stay ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, Antone Smith being little more than a rarely used homerun hitter, and countless other takes from the last few years. Moral of the story, I miss from time-to-time like everyone else, but I feel I get it right much more often. When I’m wrong, I’ll own that mistake.
For the most part, week six was about what we expected. Most of the top performances came from players who were being started by almost every team which owned them. There was a pair of young receivers who have been standing out over the last few weeks though, so I want to take some time to look at Travis Benjamin and Jamison Crowder.
Travis Benjamin, WR CLE
Week 6 stats: Nine receptions on 13 targets for 117 yards.
2015 stats: 31 receptions on 51 targets for 528 yards and four touchdowns.
Largely an afterthought this offseason with free agent acquisitions of Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline, Benjamin has climbed to the very top of the depth chart in Cleveland. In fact, he leads the team in every receiving category other than touchdowns where his four scores has him second. In fact, Benjamin is comfortably inside the top 10 receivers in almost every fantasy league right now. That’s pretty impressive for someone who started the year on waivers in a vast majority of leagues! Is he likely to stay there or is this just a little blip on the radar?
The Good: The fourth-year pro out of Miami is probably one of the fastest players in the NFL. He was clocked at 4.36 seconds in the 40 yard dash during the 2012 combine, but he is one of those players who seems to play even faster than he timed. If he gets behind the defense, there isn’t going to be anything which stops him. This is very evident by the number of long touchdowns he has had over his career, as well as his nearly 17 yard per reception average this season. He’s a fantastic deep threat.
The good news for Benjamin and the Browns is he has turned into more than just a deep threat, which is probably why he’s already surpassed his career best numbers in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. He was already a fairly competent route runner in college and he’s refined that even more in the NFL. He has the ability to run many different routes and with his speed is extremely dangerous after the catch.
The Bad: Like so many other receivers, one of the biggest knocks on Benjamin coming out of college was his lack of size. At 5’10” and 175 pounds, he is far from the size most teams look for in an outside receiver. Typically at that size we are talking about a slot receiver, but playing in the middle of the field limits his ability to use his best asset, his speed. Not only that, but he struggled early in his career when it comes to making contested catches with defenders around him.
His lack of size does mean he struggles when defenders get physical with him. While he has improved, he still struggles when defenders press him at the line of scrimmage. He also tends to lose those point-of-catch battles against strong defenders. He definitely isn’t your prototypical outside receiver in the NFL, but then again, a lot of the best receivers in the game right now aren’t the prototype either.
The Ugly Truth: Is Benjamin just the best option on a terrible team? After all, if we are being completely honest, it is tough to find another team with such a severe lack of talent at the pass catching positions. During the first two weeks, Benjamin was just an occasional deep threat. He had only six receptions on seven targets over the first two weeks, but a massive 204 yards and three scores thanks to three very long touchdowns. Since those two weeks, Benjamin’s role has changed. He is now the unquestioned top receiver with double digit targets in each of the last four games. He’s been doing more with the intermediate and even short routes over the last few weeks as the team’s best weapon. He’s going to be slightly inconsistent this season, but I expect the Browns to continue to force him the ball since he’s the best option. He should remain a solid WR2 for this season with WR1 upside since he is a threat for a long touchdown on every play.
The big question is if Benjamin has the talent to be a perennial fantasy asset or if it is just a one year thing. Part of that question has to do with what happens in the offseason. Benjamin is a free agent at the end of the season. If he leaves the Browns, where he lands will have a huge impact on his value. If he stays in Cleveland, his values depends on what happens to Josh Gordon. Even bad teams can support one solid receiver, but I don’t know if the Browns can support two receivers until they get a real quarterback. Gordon has elite talent, and Benjamin clearly isn’t at that level. If Gordon does come back in 2016, which is a huge if, Benjamin will take a bit of a backseat and be more of a WR3/4 with upside if he has a long play. If Gordon doesn’t return, I think Benjamin has shown he has the talent to be a solid but not great receiver. I think he is miscast as the top receiver on a team, but he can produce in that role and with an upgrade at the quarterback position could continue to be an asset for years to come.
Final Verdict: I expect him to stay a solid WR2 for this season. Next year his production will depend on what team he is on for the 2016 season. On the right team he could be a solid WR2, but he could be a WR4 as well. There is some risk for the future, but I think he is worth the gamble.
Jamison Crowder, WR WAS
Week 6 stats: Four receptions on nine targets for 40 yards.
2015 stats: 27 receptions on 37 targets for 244 yards.
I normally try to avoid looking at rookies, because we have a lot of other columns which focus only on rookies. However, this week was a bit limited with the options. At first glance, it doesn’t seem like 244 yards without any scores is anything to get too excited about, but keep in mind who is throwing him the ball. The Washington passing offense has the lowest yards per attempt, the second worst quarterback rating, is in a four-way tie for 27th in touchdowns and is bottom ten in yards per game. All of this while being top ten in pass attempts. In other words, no one is doing much in the offense this year. The question is if Crowder can be a building block moving forward.
The Good: I know the season is still young, but it is a little shocking when you realize Crowder has so far been the second more productive rookie receiver, only trailing Amari Cooper. Crowder hasn’t found the endzone yet, but he has been highly involved in the offense. Part of this is due to others being injured, but he is still second among receivers and tight ends for targets and receptions and third in yards. His early involvement is a great sign for his overall development in the NFL. He was already a solid route runner and the experience will only help.
The current state of the team is also a good thing for the long term. There are already rumors swirling about Washington cleaning house at the end of the season, either cutting or choosing not to re-sign almost every veteran skill position player. This could definitely clear out the depth chart and guarantee him solid playing time. If that is the case, Crowder could enter 2016 as one of the top options in the passing game, so the opportunity could definitely be there.
The Bad: The 2015 fourth round pick out of Duke has a quick first step and solid acceleration, but outside of that doesn’t fit in the NFL. He’s only 5’8”, which is definitely short, even for those who feel height is a bit overblown when evaluating receivers. He also has short arms and small hands. It isn’t just his lack of size which makes him a questionable fit. Outside of solid acceleration, he’s very average when it comes to his athleticism, which typically doesn’t signal a future star but rather someone who is the third or fourth option on a team.
The other big concern, which his average athleticism might be a part of, is he plays primarily right around the line of scrimmage. So far on the season he is averaging right about 9 yards per reception. This is quite a bit below the normal league average. In fact, it puts him outside of the top 100 for players with over ten receptions. While this wasn’t the case in college, it is fair to wonder if the jump in the level of competition has limited Crowder’s ability to get open down the field. If that is the case, his upside is going to be limited a bit, especially in non-PPR leagues.
The Ugly Truth: Ultimately I think Crowder is a case of an above-average talent making the most of a great situation. With injuries to other wide receivers and a mess at the quarterback position, Crowder’s ability to be a reliable target near the line of scrimmage is paying dividends. He will likely continue to be a highly targeted player, making him a decent but not great play in PPR leagues. The other side of the coin is he is very unlikely to post a huge game since he functions so close to the line most of the time.
Long term, I think his value is directly tied to who Washington has under center. Crowder isn’t going to ever be the top target by choice, and he doesn’t have the skill set to be outside in space most of the time. He’s going to need a good quarterback and a decent passing game to be productive as the third option in the passing game. He is currently on pace for 72 receptions, which if he reaches that mark could be his high point for the next few years until the offense gets back on track.
Final Verdict: I think he’ll be a low upside WR3 for the majority of this season with a lot of 5-7 catch games for 40-70 yards. Long term I don’t think he’ll be a reliable asset. It will be some time before the team can figure out their quarterback situation, and by the time their do get it under control there could be several new and potentially more talented receivers on the roster.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
