Dynasty Stock Market: 2015 Rookie Draft Do-Over

Ryan McDowell Posted On October 22, 2015

cooper

With six weeks of NFL action, on top of training camps and preseason games, we are starting to get a better idea of the true potential of the rookie class of 2015. With that in mind, I wanted to take a look back at some of the rookie drafts I participated in from April through August, looking for mistakes I made and ways I can improve in the future. If I was afforded a “do over” there are certainly many picks and decisions I would change and I assume you would admit the same.

When looking at these potential changes, there are many factors to consider. Obviously, current production plays a major role when conducting an exercise such as this, but it’s not as easy as ranking the rookies by fantasy point totals. Just as in the pre-season, we must consider talent, team situation, injury history, off-field issues and more when determining the value of a player. With each of things in mind, here’s a look at what my ideal 2015 rookie draft might look like now.

1.01 – Amari Cooper, WR OAK
Preseason ADP: 1.02

It feels good to know that we were all correct when it comes to the top two players off the board. While you might want to argue about which player is deserving of being the first rookie chosen, I’m simply glad to have either on my team. As you know, I almost always lean towards the wide receiver position when making trades or draft picks, so I’ll slot Cooper here. Through five games, he’s currently a low-end WR2 in PPR leagues, but has established himself as Derek Carr’s top option in the new and improved Raider offense.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

1.02 – Todd Gurley, RB STL
Preseason ADP: 1.01

As I said, the top two picks are easy and while I opted for Cooper at the top spot, I understand and appreciate many would prefer the Rams’ running back Gurley. After missing the first two games and played sparingly in Week Three, his NFL debut. In the second half of the Rams Week Four matchup against the Cardinals, Gurley took over and was instantly dominant. In the past two games, Gurley has averaged 160 yards from scrimmage and is already being valued as the dynasty RB2 behind only Le’Veon Bell. If Gurley continues to pile up huge performances like he has in the past two games, he’ll easily be a first round startup pick in 2016.

1.03 – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN
Preseason ADP: 1.09

If you follow me on Twitter, you might have seen my mention of this article, and specifically this 1.03 pick. Following the injury to Bears’ receiver Kevin White, we no longer had a consensus choice for the third pick in rookie drafts and the past couple months of action has done nothing to clear that up. With none of the players previously drafted in the first round really finding success, this becomes the most challenging choice of the do over draft. I’ll revert to my reliance on the wide receiver position and go with the Titans’ athletic freak, Green-Beckham. The Titans have used him sparingly this season, instead starting Harry Douglas alongside Kendall Wright. DGB has made a few big plays including a pair of touchdowns. He’s actually tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns, despite playing fewer snaps than six other Titans’ pass catchers. I expect a breakout soon from Green-Beckham, and then I think he’ll truly be worthy of this pick.

1.04 – TJ Yeldon, RB JAX
Preseason ADP: 1.07

Although Yeldon, the former Alabama star, does have the Jaguars’ backfield pretty much to himself, he has yet to post a signature performance, though he did break the 100 yard plateau against the Colts in Week Four. Even though he has missed a game due to injury, Yeldon is still in the RB3 range, giving dynasty owners a glimmer of hope for the future. During his absence last week, neither of his replacements performed all that well, ensuring Yeldon’s starting role is secure when he is ready to return to the field. While I don’t really think he has gained a lot of value since the season began, as this move up would reflect. Instead, this is more of a case of Yeldon not losing as much value as many of the other players originally drafted in this range.

1.05 – DeVante Parker, WR MIA
Preseason ADP: 1.05

Outside of Cooper, the wide receivers previously drafted in the first round have been massively disappointing, for a variety of reasons. The Dolphins’ rookie Parker represents most of those issues rolled into one player. He’s been slowed by injuries, namely a recurrence of the foot injury that cost him much of his senior season at Louisville. Even when he was set to return to the field though, he’s made no impact at all, catching just four passes for 49 yards on the season. We all expected the Dolphins’ receiver depth chart to be crowded and while there have been some surprises, like Rishard Matthews, Parker has not been able to break through at all. I do still trust Parker’s talent and with my proclivity to focus on the receiver position, I’d take Parker here.

1.06 – Melvin Gordon, RB SD
Preseason ADP: 1.04

With Ryan Mathews no longer in San Diego, the popular assumption was rookie Gordon would have all the touches he could handle in the Chargers’ backfield, and that’s what the team tried to do. Unfortunately, Gordon has struggled when given a heavy workload, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and more importantly, fumbling the ball four times. In Week Six, Gordon was actually benched after another lost fumble, allowing second year back Branden Oliver an opportunity for some playing time. With all of the negative, Gordon is still the best long-term option for the Chargers, who are not close to giving up on their first round draft pick. In a year where we’ve been surprised by some disappointments and breakouts at the running back position, finding a young starting running back is still very valuable in dynasty leagues.

1.07 – Duke Johnson, RB CLE
Preseason ADP: 2.03

One rookie who has been a pleasant surprise in the first half of the fantasy regular season has been Browns’ rookie running back, Johnson, who is the PPR RB20 on the season, due in large part to his role in the passing game. Through two games, Johnson had zero targets and a mediocre 65 rushing yards on 19 carries. I couldn’t understand why the team was not getting him involved as a receiver out of the backfield. That changed in Week Three, when Johnson saw seven targets and hauled in six of those. Since then, he’s piled up 18 receptions for 158 yards and a touchdown. His rushing totals are still not all that impressive, but he’s making his name as a pass catcher, which actually allows him opportunities to score fantasy points at a faster rate, thanks to the common PPR rules in most leagues. I had some concerns about Johnson’s injury history, but he has not had any significant issues this season and his value is on the rise.

1.08 – Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
Preseason ADP: 1.08

Another rookie receiver who is struggling early on is Agholor of the Eagles. Come to think of it, then entire pass catching group is struggling in Philadelphia, thanks to the erratic play of quarterback Sam Bradford and the disappointing offense led by head coach Chip Kelly. Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz and Agholor all entered the season with lofty expectations placed on them as part of the Kelly offense, but none have lived up to expectations. After missing the team’s Week Six game, Agholor is not even among the top 50 fantasy producers at his position. Whether it takes a change at quarterback or even a coaching change, I think Agholor (along with Matthews and Ertz) will get things turned around. Unfortunately, it might not be this year when that happens. With this position in the draft, Agholor lands exactly where he was in the pre-season, which again, is not indicative of his actual value, which I believe has fallen slightly since the season kicked off.

1.09 – Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
Preseason ADP: 1.06

Earlier, I mentioned some of the issues the rookie receivers have dealt with early this season. In short, they can be placed into two groups: poor starts and injuries. For Perriman in Baltimore, it’s the latter that is costing him dynasty value. What looked like a minor knee injury back in the pre-season has now cost the former Central Florida star all of the pre-season and the first six weeks of the regular season. After appearing to re-injure his knee during warm-ups a couple weeks ago, there were rumors the Ravens would simply place Perriman on the injured reserve list and call it a season. This may still happen and it appears as if this will be a lost season for Perriman either way. Like Parker though, I still believe in the talent and even if I have to wait until 2016, I’m hold onto Perriman.

1.10 – Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
Preseason ADP: 1.10

It’s been an interesting ride for Abdullah, the former Nebraska star, in his short NF career. Abdullah saw his value steadily rise throughout the off-season, thanks to the injury issues of veteran Joique Bell and some impressive plays during pre-season games. That value spike peaked with Abdullah’s first official NFL carry in Week One, which he took for a long touchdown. Since then though, Abdullah has struggled, fumbling four times, just like Gordon. Also like his counterpart in San Diego, Abdullah was benched in Week Six and has been losing snaps to the pass catching back, Theo Riddick. Abdullah has only broken double digit fantasy points in two games this year and with Bell due back soon and Riddick flourishing, the optimism is not as strong.

1.11 – Stefon Diggs, WR MIN
Preseason ADP: 3.11

The first player to really climb in value is the Minnesota receiver Diggs, who goes from a late third round pick in pre-season to my choice for the 1.11 spot in this draft. Diggs was very impressive in the return game during the pre-season and also showed flashes as a receiver. Since then though, veteran Mike Wallace has been unreliable and inconsistent and last season’s breakout receiver, Charles Johnson, has missed time with an injury. In the past two games, Diggs has taken advantage of the opportunity for playing time, totaling 13 receptions for over 200 yards. Even with Johnson due back soon, Diggs has earned his playing time, along with the confidence of Teddy Bridgewater.

1.12 – Kevin White, WR CHI
Preseason ADP: 1.03

One of the most challenging players to evaluate for this activity is White, the Bears’ firs round choice. Like Perriman, White has yet to really get his NFL career started due to an injury and also like the Ravens’ receiver, there have been rumors White could land on the injured reserve list. Personally, I have valued White lower than most others in the dynasty community, so I’d expect most to rank him much higher, potentially as high as the 1.03 pick. My concerns were the potential White could be a “one year wonder” and his age, when compared to his rookie peers. Once I learned of the shin injury that has kept White off the field, he essentially became a “do not draft” player for me.

In next week’s Dynasty Stock Market, I’ll share the second round of this 2015 rookie mock do over.

[/am4show]

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.