Chicago-style Deep Dish

Bryan Murphy

langford

Often in dynasty fantasy football, you need to be able to “read between the lines” and do a little future forecasting, to uncover some hidden value.  If I told you I had a running back who had the potential to be the unquestioned starter in a solid offense sometime over the next two weeks, and this player could be had for the cost of a early 2016 third round pick or an underperforming player like Kyle Rudolph, would you be interested? If the answer is YES, please let me introduce you to Chicago Bears running back Jeremy Langford.

I may be a little biased here because I am a Michigan State fan, but I have been very high on Langford for quite some time now.  On my final rankings list prior to the NFL draft, he was my RB6 in the 2015 class behind Todd Gurley, Melvin GordonTJ Yeldon, Ameer Abdullah, and Jay Ajayi. I almost single-handedly skewed Langford’s ADP here on DLF because I would take him so much higher than anyone else in the mock drafts that were completed over the summer. During two years as the starter at MSU, he amassed 2,944 rushing yards (5.18 YPC), 219 receiving yards (39 receptions), and 41 total touchdowns. Those statistics would be impressive for anyone, but keep in mind that Langford was a wide receiver and cornerback at MSU, prior to shifting over to running back. Langford is still considered to be a bit raw at the position. I am not going to sit here and tell you that Langford is going to be the next Adrian Peterson or Le’Veon Bell, however he has a complete three down skill set, near elite speed, he is rock solid in pass protection, and he has excellent vision for someone that has only played the position for two years. Similar to Bell coming out of Michigan State, Langford is the type of running back that doesn’t excel in one particular area but is very solid across the board at everything.

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When Langford was selected by the Bears in the fourth round many viewed this as a “bad” situation due Matt Forte’s presence and the fact the Bears had just drafted Ka’Deem Carey in 2014. Many assumed that Langford would be stuck at third or fourth on the depth chart, which caused him to fall to the third or fourth round of many 2015 rookie drafts. Well I saw the opposite! I saw an older starting running back that was in the last year of his contract, a team that could be entering a rebuild and might be willing to trade this older running back, and an underwhelming group of backups. I also saw a situation where Langford could take another year to refine his skills and see limited action, better preparing him to become the starter in 2016 (or sooner if Forte was traded or injured). When the initial depth charts came out, Langford was listed below Jacquizz Rodgers, pushing his value down even further (this is good for us). Langford then came out in the first preseason game and flopped, rushing for one yard on four carries and tossed in two receptions for another 16 yards (making some question his ability, again good for us). He received more playing time over the next three games and ended the preseason with a respectable 153 rushing yards (5.46 YPC) and three receptions for 30 yards. Although many believed that Langford may have done enough to pass Rodgers on the depth chart, Rodgers was still listed ahead of him. Fast forward to week two when the Bears gave Forte an extended break in the first half, and it was Langford who came into the game for an extended period of time, not Rodgers. Langford had six carries for 21 yards on that drive, one of which capped off the drive with a touchdown. Outside of that drive he has seen very limited touches over the first five weeks (this is still good for us). After I started writing this article, another domino fell for Langford when Rodgers was injured in week five and placed on injured reserve, ensuring that Langford is now the unquestioned backup to Forte.

So why should you buy Langford? As mentioned, Forte is the final year of his contract and he will turn 30 before the season ends. While Forte is still a solid running back, history suggests his skills will begin to erode quickly. Heading into the season my belief was the Bears needed to seriously consider tearing their team down and starting from scratch, due to an aging roster and questionable quarterback situation. When they started off the season 0-3, they started doing just that by trading Jared Allen and Jon Bostic. Reports then came out saying the Bears were willing to trade Forte. While that hasn’t happened yet, it is still a very likely possibility. The only thing that could muddy the waters is the fact that the Bears are coming off a two-game winning streak and play the hot mess in Detroit known as the Lions. If the Bears make it to 3-3 before the deadline, the front office could become delusional and hold off on trading Forte, unless they are blown away by an offer. Should they fall to 2-4 though, I expect Forte to be heavily shopped. Regardless of whether he is traded, it doesn’t make sense for the Bears to invest $6-$8 million per year in a 30 year old running back after this season. I would put the odds of Forte being a Bear next year at less than 10 percent. When Forte is gone- either via trade or allowing him to walk- Langford should be vaulted into the starting position for 2016. He has a complete three down skill set and he should flourish in the Bears system, especially if both Kevin White and Alshon Jeffrey are still around next year. He has also shown durability and the ability to handle a full workload. While Forte being traded or not re-signed at the end of the season are Langford’s biggest tickets to playing time, Forte also has an injury history so there is a possibility that he misses some time this year and we get an early look at Langford.

Langford’s October ADP is 156 overall.  He is being valued similarly to players like Andre Williams, Blake Bortles, Kenny Stills, and Richard Rodgers and could still be had for a late 2016 second round rookie pick or possibly an early third round. For me the price is right and if I didn’t already own Langford in almost every league I’m in, I would be buying. Think about it this way, if I’m right then you may have a solid RB2 for the next five to seven years and if I’m wrong then you are out a bench player or lottery pick. If you chose to take my advice (which you should), just make sure you don’t wait too long because the trade deadline is November 3rd.  If Forte is traded, Langford’s value will easily triple!!!

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