Dynasty Stock Market: In-Season ADP
I love ADP data. I see so much value not only in the single number that matches up with each player’s name, but also the trends that can be observed as players move up and down the ranks from month to month. While this tool is not perfect for all types of dynasty transactions, it certainly provides some insight into the way active dynasty players currently value NFL players.
With this always-evolving value in mind, I wanted to try some in-season dynasty mock drafts, as I have in the past years. With four weeks of real game action full of breakout players, major injuries and many players already labeled as busts, we are sure to see some large swings in ADP since our last data from early September.
This set of mock drafts began this past Sunday evening with most of the Week Four games in the books and while they are still in progress, I wanted to provide you with the most up to date data, along with some commentary about picks and players that stand out to me.
I’ll break down the data in round by round fashion, based on a typical 12-team league. One note before I begin, the current data is based on only three dynasty startup mock drafts. Typically during the season, I would host four drafts to compile data, but was unable to fill four drafts at this time. If you are interested in participating in future mock drafts, just post in the comments section below.
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With the majority of the players in the first round only moving in either direction by fractions, it’s easy to notice the two young elephants in the room, rookies Amari Cooper and Todd Gurley. Both players are off to hot starts in their career and have already cemented their status as weekly must-starts in fantasy leagues. A month ago, I projected Cooper would be the 2016 1.02 pick and I feel good about that right now. I’ve also been of the opinion, along with many others, that dynasty owners are already so awestruck with Gurley that it would take only one or two impressive runs to make him a top ten player. He gave us that and more in his first significant action last week and here he is in the first round. Expect both to keep gaining value and good luck if you haven’t already acquired them in your league.
There are few major changes to the second set of 12 players with the most significant movements being Andrew Luck and Eddie Lacy falling out of the first round and Keenan Allen sneaking into the end of the second round after a pair of huge games in the first month. Allen has shown enough to move ahead of some of the slow-starting sophomore receivers. Once the season starts, dynasty players almost always value current production more than future upside. I’m somewhat surprising Luck did not fall further than he did. One mock draft participant still pegged Luck as an early first rounder, but other than that, he was falling much further than his off-season ADP would suggest. Along with Lacy, the other running back dropping a significant chunk from last month is Bengals’ Jeremy Hill. Lacy has been banged up and it appeared Hill had lost his hold on the starting job in the Queen City. Both situations served as reminders that using an early round dynasty pick on a running back can be dangerous.
After climbing as high as the third round early in the off-season, by September, many dynasty owners had completely abandoned the hope of Colts’ receiver Donte Moncrief become a valuable fantasy asset. After all, he had nearly dropped outside of the top 100 overall. Now, after just a few games, we’ve learned a lot about the Colts’ offense. Veteran Andre Johnson simply looks done as an NFL receiver, while rookie Phillip Dorsett may not be quite ready. TY Hilton is still the star in Indianapolis, but being the second option for Andrew Luck is not a bad role to have. Moncrief is one of the biggest risers after the first month of the season, though I fear, as we often do, dynasty owners may be overreacting placing Moncrief among the top 30 players.
This third round features other interesting rises and falls, including Martavis Bryant moving up nearly a round even though he hasn’t suited up yet in the 2015 season. That could be a result of the news of his suspension being fresh a month ago and now that he’s set to return this week, all is forgiven. Many of the sophomore receivers are slumping and one of the most disappointing is the Saints Brandin Cooks, who isn’t even the top scoring receiver on his own team. That honor goes to undrafted free agent Willie Snead. Travis Kelce and Carlos Hyde have also ridden solid starts to a jump in dynasty value, though both have had some down games as well, so should be monitored closely.
The final round I’ll tackle here today is one in which we see three players making larger jumps in value, moving up a round or more since just last month. Like the recency bias displayed above with Bryant’s suspension, the injury news surrounding receivers Kevin White and Kelvin Benjamin really stung this time last month, but being a month into the 2015 season just means we are a month closer to the talented players getting back on the field and some are willing to gamble they return at full strength. The final player making a big move up is Raiders’ running back Latavius Murray. He’s running hard and the Raiders’ offense looks much improved. As long as Murray stays healthy, considering the struggles of many other backs, there is no reason he can’t maintain this level of dynasty value.
I already mentioned the roller coaster value of Moncrief and Packer Davante Adams has been on a similar ride, moving as high as the third round following the injury to star Jordy Nelson. Now dealing with injuries himself and with the arrival of veteran James Jones, dynasty owners are questioning the true value of Adams, resulting in a double digit spot fall from one month ago.
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