The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On October 1, 2015

dlfmailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

Who is the best rookie running back not named Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon or Ameer Abdullah who is a good buy now candidate before his price tag rises a la Matt Jones? – Dan in NJ

Though I might be a day or two late here, given the recent news of LeSean McCoy likely missing this Sunday’s game, I’m still going to say Karlos Williams. While he hasn’t handled more than 12 carries in a single game, he’s looked explosive with the opportunities he’s received en route to a compiling a whopping 7.8 YPC average. Conversely, McCoy has looked even more dreadful than he did last season – I was certainly guilty of giving Shady the benefit of the doubt, firmly believing he would function as the surefire bell-cow in a Greg Roman-led offense and bouncing back (if only modestly so).

Unfortunately, it appears his struggles are carrying over to the current season, and he’s now in real danger of ceding more and more work to the impressive rookie. Given the structure of his contract (he’s only guaranteed $2.5 million in 2016), it’s not unreasonable to assert McCoy’s “contract extension” could wind up as a one-and-done with the Bills. With Williams as the next man up, I’d be looking to get in now – he’s not on the ground floor anymore, but at this point next year, you could be buying at penthouse prices.

In my 12-man PPR league, I have Brandin Cooks and Nelson Agholor and just received a trade offer of Carlos Hyde and Davante Adams for them. I also have Jeremy Hill and Arian Foster at running back, and Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry and Breshad Perriman at receiver. Should I do this trade? – Richie in NJ

I think I’d rather stand pat. Carlos Hyde would definitely, um, “hide” your deficiency at the ball carrier position (I just can’t make myself trust Arian Foster’s health at this point in his career), but I don’t think the value is there. Though he’s still young, I just haven’t seen enough out of Davante Adams to believe he adds enough to the side you’d theoretically be receiving here. He’s been soundly outplayed by James Jones and Jordy Nelson will be returning in 2016 – how big a piece of pie will Adams be able to carve out come next season?

In fairness, Nelson Agholor hasn’t done much either, but he’s still playing a large proportion of snaps on the Eagles offense. It’s more than fair to begin to question Chip Kelly’s personnel decisions, but it’s likely Agholor would’ve gone in the first round even if Philly didn’t select him – I still believe his future is brighter than that of Adams. And even despite his struggles I’d rather have Brandin Cooks than Hyde, meaning, at least in my opinion, the better assets are on the side you’re giving away. I’d look to either replace Agholor with a less valuable asset, or get someone better than Adams in return if you’re going to make this deal happen.

I’m a contending team but also a frustrated Calvin Johnson owner. What is going on in Detroit? Megatron is probably my favorite player, but is it time to consider selling? What would a reasonable return be, or is he still a guy that you want as a contender? – Jordan in Vancouver

I absolutely still want Calvin Johnson on my roster, and even detailed as much in this week’s Tuesday Transactions column. No, the Detroit offense isn’t what it used to be (much of that due, in my opinion, to the fact Matt Stafford is finally being exposed as a below-average quarterback), but even despite that, Johnson has still averaged 20 PPR PPG over the past two weeks. His role has changed into that of more of an intermediate threat, but the fact is he’s getting a ton of looks (30 total over that span), and largely making good on them. I think he can still get deep with the best of them and by now, the Detroit coaching staff has likely assessed the problem at hand – if I’m contending, there’s no way I’m selling unless someone overpays.

I currently have an offer on the table that includes me trading Lamar Miller for Charles Clay and Doug Martin, plus third and fourth round picks. Travis Kelce is my starting tight end and Chris Ivory and Eddie Lacy are my other two starting running backs. I absolutely love Miller and he is great if and only if his coaching staff gives him the ball. I have a contending team this year but am worried that Miami will continue to underutilize their best running back and cost me my shot at the title. Should I accept this offer? – Garry in Canada

[inlinead]I’m as big a Doug Martin apologist as you’ll find, but there’s no way I’m touching this deal with a ten-foot pole. Not only is Miami running back Lamar Miller easily the best asset, but the players you’d be receiving in return wouldn’t actually bolster your starting lineup. Charles Clay isn’t in the same stratosphere as Travis Kelce and while it’s true Miller hasn’t exactly been fed the rock this season, Martin is as much or even more game-flow dependent due to the sorry state of affairs in Tampa Bay. It would be great if Joe Philbin (or perhaps more accurately, whoever replaces Joe Philbin a couple weeks from now) would get the memo about getting Miller the ball, but even if that doesn’t come to fruition, Miller will be a free agent at the conclusion of the season, at which point he could sign in a friendlier locale. As such I’d be either holding, or buying low, but definitely not selling – I think you have to stand pat here.

My team started 0-3 and I’m in need of prospects. As I’m new to dynasty, I was wondering what you thought about this trade offer: I give Dion Lewis and get TJ Yeldon and a third round pick in next years rookie draft. Is this a fair deal? – Nathaniel in MN

Run, don’t walk! As a new dynasty owner, one thing you’ll come to realize over the course of time is that “recency bias” shouldn’t color your decision-making as it would in a re-draft setting. In other words, the potentially transient nature of the high-level play put forward by Pats running back Dion Lewis needs to be viewed with a longer time frame in mind than just the current season. As such, you need to ask yourself – do you see Lewis continuing this pace for multiple years?

That’s something I’d bet against happening. I think he’s a good player, but he’s also an unrestricted free agent next season and he might be playing himself into a contract the fickle Patriots simply won’t want to match. Piling on, LeGarrette Blount remains as a Bill Belichick favorite and will undoubtedly get a slew of opportunities as the year goes on.

If you can snag TJ Yeldon, a player who was a consensus top 6-8 rookie pick, I’d absolutely do it. He’s the unquestioned lead dog in an admittedly bad offense, but he’s young and locked in for the next four years. Given that, I’d much rather bet on Jacksonville turning it around and Yeldon putting up bigger numbers moving forward than I would on Lewis riding the lightning for a prolonged period of time.

I’m 3-0 and the hands-down favorite in the league. I’m super stoked on Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray and Danny Woodhead so far, but I would like to add another young running back to the stable. What type of pick value do you place on Karlos Williams, Matt Jones and David Johnson? What about a sagging veteran that might turn it around, someone in the vein of DeMarco Murray or LeSean McCoy instead? – Tony in MT

As for the trio of youngsters you mentioned, each has definitively flashed this year, but I’d be reluctant to offer anything more than a second round pick. The simple fact is each has had such a small sample size that it’s impossible to say with any type of certainty that they’d provide enough return if you traded a future first. Since you likely won’t be able to wrangle them away for anything less, you might want to shift your focus elsewhere.

I’ve provided my thoughts on McCoy above, and don’t view him as a viable trade target. DeMarco Murray, however, is more interesting – no, he hasn’t looked good this year, but it’s not as if his talent simply vanished following a transcendent 2014 campaign. The dynasty masses seem to be incredibly down on him after just two games (he sat out week three) and there’s a decent chance he could be had for an early second round pick right now – I’d much rather take that chance on a proven commodity like Murray and obtain starting-level output this year.

In my 12-team 1QB league I was offered Kelvin Benjamin, Kendall Wright and a first round pick for Andrew Luck. I have Tyrod Taylor and Jameis Winston as back-ups. Should I make the deal? – Richard in PA

In about half a heartbeat and it has nothing to do with Andrew Luck’s early-season struggles. The fact is quarterbacks simply aren’t that valuable in smaller settings and you can get by on a weekly basis with the backups you already have. Honestly I’d make that deal for any two of the three assets you were offered, so the fact you can get two coveted receivers and a future first round pick is akin to winning the lottery as far as I’m concerned. Luck is a great player and likely still the consensus QB1 in dynasty, but the value is there to move on.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.