IDP Watch: Week Three

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to monitor.

Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores – these are key indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

The goal is to largely avoid stellar IDP players since many of those individuals are already heavily in the eyes of IDP owners. Instead, here are some players to keep an eye on based on week three performances:

Jordan Hicks ILB, PHI

With Kiko Alonso and Mychal Kendricks out, Hicks started against the Jets and played every defensive snap finishing with nine tackles, an assist and an interception. He’s put his preseason struggles behind him and has looked fantastic over the last two weeks both defending the run and in coverage. It looks like the Eagles’ linebacker depth chart is super crowded.

Interestingly, DeMeco Ryans only played 70% of the team’s snaps this week. There were some off-season rumblings about a release, so if Hicks continues with these types of performances, Ryans could be a release candidate next off-season. In the short-term, while Kendricks could be back next week, Alonso is going for a second opinion and it’s still a possibility he’s out for the year. If so, despite the presence of Ryans, I expect Hicks to be a productive and viable option at linebacker. The wild card will be the split between Ryans and Hicks.

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Demarcus Lawrence, DE DAL

Lawrence has only accumulated four tackles and four assists (zero sacks) through three games on 79% of the team’s snaps – sobering for IDP owners hoping for a breakout prior to Greg Hardy returning from suspension and Randy Gregory returning from injury. Many are disappointed, but Lawrence is actually getting to the quarterback effectively and he’s also seeing more attention with little depth in the current defensive end rotation. Lawrence has five quarterback hurries and two quarterback hits on the season, which should transition to sacks with maturation and the return of Hardy. I’m still preaching patience with Lawrence.

Kony Ealy, DE CAR

The Panthers are struggling to get pressure on the quarterback with only one sack in each of the first three games. Ealy has zero sacks thus far and with Charles Johnson potentially out for a few weeks with a hamstring injury, the Panthers needed to bolster their rotation. To help with both issues, they traded for Jared Allen who will be moved back to his natural 4-3 defensive end position. While Allen is aging and significantly slower than his former self, he could offer some short-term production in deeper league requiring two defensive ends to be starter. Allen’s value increases with this move, but I wouldn’t expect too much and he’s more akin to a stash at this juncture.

Paul Worrilow, MLB ATL

This past Sunday was another example why Worrilow will not be a usable IDP asset for the long-term. He’s a high-effort player whose talent has run dry. His production over the past few years is attributable to opportunity, which is phenomenal for IDP purposes, but unfortunately, only for the short-term. Worrilow continues to struggle defending the run and a defensive minded head coach like Dan Quinn is unlikely to tolerate his play beyond this season, if that long. If you can sell Worrilow in the near-term, it would be wise unless you need him for a 2015 championship run.

Christian Jones, ILB CHI

I expected a breakout from Jones with the starting opportunity in 2015, but he hasn’t put up solid IDP numbers yet with just ten tackles and seven assists on the year. Despite the lower tackle numbers, there are two encouraging aspects to his play thus far – his snap share (92%) and his play in coverage. While the Bears need to rebuild, he’s certainly the best linebacker on their current roster and there is a good chance he’s a part of their long-term plans given his potential. He still has room to improve and he’s liable to see plenty of opportunities throughout the year. The Bears’ defense should be on the field a lot this season, which should mean lofty IDP production. Don’t give up on Jones yet.

Kenneth Acker, CB SF

Acker looks to have one of the starting spots locked down through three games playing 95% of the team’s snaps accumulating 14 tackles, three assists, an interception and a pass defended. He’s faced two pass heavy defenses in Pittsburgh and Arizona over the last two weeks, but with the Packers and Giants on tap, the volume should continue making him a nice option in deeper corner-required leagues which may allow three to four corners to be started.

Kevin Minter, ILB ARI

Minter is similar to Paul Worrilow. The current opportunity is driving his IDP production, not his talent. The Cardinals don’t have much in the way of depth at inside linebacker, leaving Minter as the default option, even in sub-packages. On 83% of the team’s snaps thus far, Minter is averaging roughly six tackles per game. While he’s currently seeing a nice share of snaps, his struggles in coverage should serve to reduce his long-term snap share as I’d expect the Cardinals bring in some competition headed into next year. I don’t trust Minter beyond 2015 given his shortcomings in coverage.

Jabaal Sheard, DE NE

After playing roughly 60% of the team’s snaps in each of the first two games of 2015, Sheard played 85% in week three. The shift back to a 4-3 defensive end has proven successful for Sheard who now has six tackles, two assists, two sacks, 13 pressures and 11 hurries in three games. Consider he’s also drawn four offensive penalties over this period. He has been extremely disruptive thus far and has excelled rushing the passer. If he’s not rostered in your league, he should be especially since it’s very possible he begins to steal snaps from Rob Ninkovich.

Quick Hits

Benardrick McKinney, ILB HOU – McKinney’s snap count is slowly increasing each week. The Texans are bringing him along slowly, but it looks like he’ll continue to be tested with more work on a weekly basis until he plateaus or shows weakness. He started this past week and played 34% of the team’s snaps in a base role.

Curtis Lofton, ILB OAK – He only played 60% of the team’s snaps in week one, but for two consecutive weeks he’s playing in sub-packages on 99% and 100% of the team’s snaps. Ray-Ray Armstrong is the clear odd-man out as Malcolm Smith continues to play every down with Lofton.

Kwon Alexander, MLB TB– For the third straight week, Alexander played 100% of the team’s snaps. He finished with five tackles, five assists, an interception and two passes defended. He’s the top IDP rookie through three games.

Stephone Anthony, MLB NO – He’s played every down for the Saints thus far, but Anthony hasn’t been as active in the box score as many hoped with only nine tackles and seven assists through three games. While he’s struggled in coverage thus far and he isn’t performing at the same level as Alexander, patience is needed. The production should come.

Arik Armstead, DE SF – He’s only played 24% of the team’s snaps, but he flashed potential in week three finishing with two tackles, an assist and a sack. Keep an eye on how snaps continue to be split between Armstead and Cornelius Carradine as he’s a freakish talent with a tremendous ceiling.

Eric Kendricks, WLB MIN

For the second straight week, Kendricks is primarily seeing time in sub-packages playing only 68% and 53% of snaps over the last two weeks respectively. The every down role should come, but the Vikings clearly only want to use him as a situational player early in his career.

Ndamukong Suh, DT MIA

If you’re worried about Suh, don’t be. He’s still playing well despite the press reports. The production will come.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski

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