FanDuel Four: Week Three
As part of DLF’s re-organization of our daily fantasy coverage, we have developed a new article which will simultaneously share with our readers players we advocate starting in your FanDuel lineups due to the production they are likely to see or the value adding them to your lineup will provide. Additionally, we will also highlight some players our readers should avoid so as to prevent any negative consequences those players may do their lineups. Finally, not only will our readers get one or two opinions on the matter, no, you will now get four separate experts (Chris Heil, Nick Whalen, TheFFGhost and George Kritikos) all debating the merits of each selection. We believe this will provide a full-bodied debate and allow our readers the pleasure of seeing multiple angles each week for 12 separate players. Without further ado, welcome to the premiere of the FanDuel Four!
Will Russell Wilson be the best play this week?
Ghost: “To kick off our debate, Chris Heil believes the top scoring quarterback for the week will be Russell Wilson. Nick Whalen, what are your thoughts?”
Nick: “Chicago’s pass defense is playing like the AA affiliate right now. Any team will carve them up as their CB1, Kyle Fuller, was benched last week. He and the other starting cornerback, Alan Ball were both flagged for very long pass interference penalties as well. Yes, Carson Palmer’s numbers could have been much worse. Even further, they don’t have a single sack on the season from a transitioning defense to the 3-4. Start any quarterback against Chicago with extreme confidence right now.”
Ghost: “I think Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger may barely outscore Wilson this week, but it will certainly be close and I can totally see why Chris would choose Wilson against the absolutely anemic Bears defense this week. Seattle is going to be looking for a fight and unfortunately for the Bears they aren’t going to let the gas off until the game is over. How about your thoughts, George?”
George: “I have Wilson high on my list as well. He has 30+ pass attempts in each of the first two games and the Bears secondary suggests it will be three in a row. Oh, he is still on pace for over 800 rushing yards as well. The only concern is Seattle could blow them out quickly and take the foot off the pedal. Even so, I see Russell at worst to be a top 3 finisher and at best to lead the pack.”
Is Le’Veon Bell a good play this week?
Ghost: “Excellent, I like how the debate is starting off a bit slow. It gives us a chance to feel each other out a bit. So maybe Nick can get is fired up a little bit with his high scoring running back of the week, Le’Veon Bell. Chris, let’s get your first word in this segment, how do you feel about Nick’s selection of Bell?”
Chris: “All in on Bell this week. They can put eight players in the box and I’m still not worried. He is one of the few running backs who can run between the tackles and catch the ball. The Rams defense looked good against the Seahawks, but Seattle has some line issues they are working out right now. Some might be scared by price tag of there week one dominance. He the real deal!”
Ghost: “OK, I’ll bite then. You know Bell will be a popular play this week for a lot of reasons but I’m actually going to avoid him out of the gate. The Rams rush defense was made to look silly last week against Washington but part of that was due to the unexpected twist of Matt Jones. I think St. Louis knows exactly what they’re going to be facing in Bell. How much of it is the question that scares me a bit as he could be on a play count during his first game back. How about you, George”
George: “Roughly half the running backs are questionable or out this week so the pickings are slim. Hyperbole aside, Bell could easily be the top back this week but Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles will be hot on his heels to claim the pole position. Bell faces a good defense but his versatility in the pass game should keep his bell cow status secure.”
Is Antonio Brown the best receiver play this week?
Ghost: “So it’s my turn for the top scoring wide receiver for the week I’m going to throw Antonio Brown out there. Am I wrong?”
Nick: “Brown is the best receiver by far. He has a high ceiling, but also the highest floor. The ultimate play, get him with confidence.”
George: “Yeah, Antonio Brown is an easy choice. Every Rams cornerback is allowing at least 60% of targets to be caught so this isn’t exactly a defense capable of keeping the ball away from a receiver, much less an elite one. The safeties are also terrible in coverage and struggle to make plays against the pass so they should be little help.”
Chris: “Anytime you can fit Antonio Brown’s salary in your lineup, it’s a must. He’s consistent and can’t be stopped. It doesn’t matter about the match up as he is a must-play.”
Is Rob Gronkowski worth the hefty price tag this week?
Ghost: “How this for a softball, George’s pick for the top tight end this week is Rob Gronkowski. Chris, should I even ask, how do you feel about that call?”
Chris: “Paying up for Gronk can be difficult but the reward is always worth it. Tom Brady is on a hot streak and will include Gronk along the way. He can’t and won’t be stopped.”
Ghost: “Exactly! How can you every really bet against Gronk? I kind of think George may be cheating here, maybe we need to have a limit on the number of times we can suggest a player or we may see this name all season long. That being said, teams do get a bit cocky and can underperform if they feel their opponent is inferior. The possibility exists that Gronk may not put up the numbers we all expect. Is it probable? No, but it’s not exactly zero either.”
Nick: “The Patriots look to be out to settle a score against the NFL at the moment. They will pass and run up the score whenever possible – this only leads to great things for Gronk and he’s the undisputed TE1 each week. I would expect a clunker game at some point, but I don’t think it is this week.”
Is Tyrod Taylor the best value on FanDuel in terms of quarterbacks this week?
Ghost: “Well, the opening round of this roundtable went pretty smoothly, as expected. I expect the next round where we highly the best value plays for the week to be a little more intense in preparation for the final round. So George, how do you feel about Chris’ pick of Tyrod Taylor as the top value at quarterback this week?”
George: “Taylor’s price is rising but Miami could force the team to focus on passing the ball to make plays. In the first two weeks, he has exceeded 15 points both weeks so the floor, thus far, appears safe. I also like Nick Foles ($6,500 vs PIT) and Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,800 vs PHI) as some other value plays.”
Ghost: “Also good calls, George. So, I played Taylor in Week One and was treated to quite a great value. Each week now his price has increased though so the value aspect is fading as people start to associate him with being a bargain. In terms of pure value Dalton, Tannehill or Palmer may be a little bit better but Taylor is still a very solid low price/high upside play for me. Your thoughts Nick?”
Nick: “Taylor showed last week he wasn’t a fluke in week one. His interceptions are also a bit flawed, so don’t get hung up on them. Miami D got gashed by the Jaguars, why not the Bills? Another value quarterback value would be Colin Kaepernick (at ARI@). He’s played very well this year and just like with Tyrod, it goes against our preseason thoughts.”
What about Latavius Murray?
Ghost: “Interesting. My dislike for any team not called the Rams in the NFC West just won’t let me get behind Kaepernick but the natural contrarian in me likes the pick. So how about Nick’s pick of Latavius Murray, George? Is it spot on and also contrarian?”
George: “I am a fan of this pick as Murray will be cozying up on my DFS couch. Cleveland is last in rushing yards allowed and among the worst in total rushing attempts and yards per attempt allowed. Given his budding ability in the pass game, he should again match or eclipse the 18 touch threshold he has met in each of the first two weeks.”
Ghost: “I can see that, George. With the Browns offense in disarray (Who will start the game at quarterback? Will he finish it, too?), the possibility exists for a lot of three and outs for Cleveland. As such, Murray could see a lot of work. For my money, though, I think I might hitch my wagon to Danny Woodhead instead.”
Chris: “Any running back going against the Cleveland Browns defense is appealing. I think Murray is a great GPP play, however, I would not put him in any cash line ups. He hasn’t shown consistency in 2014 or this season. There are other options with safer floors.”
Who is the value of the week at wide receiver?
Ghost: “So George, how about my Julian Edelman pick as the wide receiver value of the week? Agree or disagree?”
George: “Bit of a high price to flat out call him a value but I wouldn’t be surprised if Edelman outplays that salary. He has exactly 11 catches for 97 yards in each of the first two weeks. The Jaguars defense is not good, especially playing the ball as they have one pass defense and zero interceptions from their secondary.”
Chris: “Is there a way to dislike any Patriots players right now? They are all producing at such a high level right now. Edelman has so many targets and catches he is a must play.”
Nick: “Just like with Gronk, I believe the Patriots are taking on an “Us vs The World” mentality. Therefore, Brady is trying to set records and run up the score. It’s amounted to a 3:1 pass to run ratio and I don’t see that changing any time soon. The biggest beneficiary is Edelman who leads the team in targets and isn’t getting enough credit from the FF community. Capitalize on a stud being a value play!”
Is Eric Ebron the best value at tight end this week?
Ghost: “For what it’s worth, I think Edelman will hit about 2.5 times his value on the week, which would be pretty darn good production. Speaking of outproducing his price, I like George’s call of Eric Ebron as the top tight end value this week. It’s a solid play for what I’m projecting Ebron’s point to price ratio to be. I could see Detroit being in a battle with Denver which could add some extra targets his way. However, as the absolute top tight end value I’m going to go with Jared Cook this week in a game where the Rams are going to need to throw a lot in order to even attempt to keep up. Nick, the Ebron play, is George right on the money?”
Nick: “I don’t mind the Ebron angle, just wish they used him more down the field. Another play is Ladarius Green. If he’s cleared after his concussion, he’s had two solid games thus far.”
Chris: “This is a fantastic play if you are looking for low owned percentage. I prefer to grab someone else who can offer as high of a ceiling without as much risk.”
What about players to avoid?
Ghost: “Alright guys, we’re on the homestretch this week. How about some players you’re going to be avoiding this week? Chris took Joe Flacco as the quarterback to avoid this week, agree or disagree Nick?”
Nick: “I agree, Flacco worries me against a good Bengals pass rush and a lack of weapons. Another avoid for me is Sam Bradford against the Jets defense. I don’t think I need to explain this one.”
George: “Flacco has no receiving weapons outside of Steve Smith and his yards per attempt (6.6) tells that story. That conservative style of play has hurt the team and the Cincy defense is going to make him play that way yet again. At that price, I would rather have Carson Palmer.”
Ghost: “I guess I’ll be on an island here, nothing new for me though. I don’t think Flacco will do horrible this weekend, but he certainly isn’t going to be dropping a massive game on his division rival either. I’m going to say he’d be a “use in case of emergency” type of player for my lineup. Coming back to you George, how about Nick’s selection of Dion Lewis as a must avoid this week?”
George: “On the surface, Lewis looks like a decent play but the Jags defense looks much improved from 2014. They are allowing under three yards per carry and the third fewest rushing yards in the NFL after two weeks – that could mean more work for him and less for Blount but it’s hard to say. I see better options in this price range so I am avoiding him as well this week.”
Ghost: “Yeah, the LeGarrette Blount angle scares me some so I kind of agree here in all honesty. The Patriots love to throw curveballs every season to fantasy owners when it comes to running backs. I get the feeling one of those curveballs is coming at us soon and I don’t want to get burned. Chris, from our earlier conversations I think we may see you on your own island with this selection but I still have to ask, agree or disagree with Nick’s pick?”
Chris: “I could not disagree with this more. Everyone is using the narrative you can’t trust a Belichick running back. We have finally found one we can rely on. Shane Vereen was perfect for the Patriots except for the fact he can’t run behind the tackles. Lewis can do it all and is a three down back. Take advantage of him while he is priced low!”
Ghost: “OK then, how about my selection of Michael Floyd as a must avoid this week? I feel he has been rushed back from his hand injury way too soon. If I remember correctly, this was supposed to be the week he was slated to return once the injury was first announced. George, am I taking the easy way out here?”
George: “Floyd is the type of play I would use only when trying to save cap and take a flyer hoping he hits. The hand injury combined with limited use makes him an extreme risk, one I am staying away from despite the attractive matchup. Brown and Fitz will feast while Floyd will be lucky to get a few scraps.”
Nick: “I’ve never believed in Floyd and don’t consider him a start in a desperate redraft league, much less a DFS play. He isn’t worthy until he establishes himself.”
Chris: “If Michael Floyd put up 100 yards and two touchdowns, would you be surprised? I wouldn’t, but that’s the type of player he has become. He is an inconsistent wide receiver. He has so many ups and downs I let others try to hit on him. I only want him in very large field GPPs.”
Ghost: “Great way to sum up the point I was trying to draw out in selecting him, Chris. I think the matchup combined with his natural talent and the fact he’s been hiding a bit may make some people want to start him this week – don’t just yet, though! So let’s go back to Chris for his take on George’s call to avoid Heath Miller this week at tight end. Chris, are you going to be avoiding Miller too?”
Chris: “Heath Miller has been a roller coster of fantasy points for a couple seasons. He is never in the game plan as Bell and Brown are. Stay away far, far away.”
Nick: “I really like this call because Miller only had two targets last week, even though he scored a touchdown. They will phase him out more with Le’Veon Bell back in the fold.”
Ghost: “I agree guys. Granted, to his credit, Miller has been on quite the tear lately but a lot of that has had to do with his touchdown against the 49ers, otherwise he’d have really stunk up the joint last week. Like Nick, with Bell back I don’t think Miller’s numbers are going to be helped any.”
Alright, so that concludes our first installment of the FanDuel Four. As the moderator, I’m very excited to see where this piece goes and grows into. Hopefully, the debates we have every week will help spawn some interesting conversations and spin off some additional debates in the comments below. Come back next week to see some of the inevitable gloating and mea culpas. We’re just getting started, gang!
[ad5]
