Off-Season Reflections: Running Back Risers
Running back production depends massively on ‘situation.’ The offense, the linemen and the competition for touches all contribute heavily to their success. Mediocre runners can excel with volume and holes to run through, while talented backs can be taken down by a committee backfield. After the first two weeks, the featured backs for the top two offenses in the league are a 32-year old vet in DeAngelo Williams and a player on his fourth team in five seasons in the form of Dion Lewis. Both of them are in the top five fantasy backs, but it could be argued (strongly) that the production is more to do with their teams and scoring opportunities than simply being the most talented players at their positions.
In this article in the series, I continue to reflect on players whose ADPs changed this off-season, looking specifically in this piece at running backs who rose due to situational changes. We can obviously make good cases to invest in them (otherwise they wouldn’t have climbed this far), but we have to ask ourselves why they rose. Was it for a valid reason? Are we confident they earned it? What are our expectations moving forward?
CJ Spiller, RB NO
March ADP: 108, August ADP: 62 (+46)
As covered in ‘Changes at the Top’, both Mark Ingram and Spiller rose steadily over the off-season. We should always expect Drew Brees’ backs to be heavily involved in the passing game and Ingram kicked off the season with eight catches for 98 yards in Spiller’s absence. Last week, a touchdown salvaged a 58-yard performance in a demoralising loss. However, with the news that Brees reportedly has pain and weakness in his throwing arm, I’m becoming increasingly worried for every piece in the Saints offense right now.
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Justin Forsett, RB BAL
March: 127, August: 77 (+50)
It has been a very slow start for a lot of veteran backs. CJ Anderson, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch have all underperformed in fantasy football so far and Forsett is in that group as well. I think owners were cautious to go ‘all-in’ on Forsett before free agency and the draft, but the Ravens showed confidence in him as their guy so he shot up in ADP. However, in week one, Forsett saw 14 carries to rookie Javorius Allen’s nine, and last Sunday second-year man Lorenzo Taliaferro scored the Ravens only rushing touchdown. Forsett’s number one role may not be as secure as we thought.
Joseph Randle & Darren McFadden, RBs DAL
Randle – March: 220, August: 86 (+134)
McFadden – March: Undrafted, August: 175 (+66)
Randle was the number one riser this off-season with a 134-spot rise (that’s over 11 rounds). The expectation was he would see similar volume to DeMarco Murray in 2014. However, Murray had no games with fewer than 19 carries last year and Randle opened up the season with 16 and 18 in the first two games, indicating things won’t be exactly the same. But there are reasons to be positive – the Cowboys should lean more heavily on the run game in Tony Romo’s absence and Randle has proven to be much more effective than McFadden thus far despite the former Raider becoming ‘relevant’ again after his move. The wildcard here is Christine Michael, but maybe we need to “stop trying to make C-Mike happen.”
Frank Gore, RB IND
March: 197, August: 93 (+104)
When there is a running back void in one of the top offenses in the league, we tend to get excited about who fills it. Generally, I believe offenses with good quarterbacks cater for good running back production, but it is certainly not guaranteed. The Colts had fantasy-relevant periods from Dan Herron and Ahmad Bradshaw, but couldn’t help Trent Richardson. The Broncos utilized Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson, but Montee Ball didn’t take the next step. We know Gore has been one of the league’s most consistent and productive backs over the past century, but how much longer does he have? I’m not sure he warranted this much of a rise in dynasty leagues and through two weeks, he hasn’t shown up.
Shane Vereen, RB NYG
March: 113, August: 94 (+19)
Vereen played a specific role in the rotation at New England – and played it very well. Do the Giants have a similar role that he can fill? Some of his fans may have thought Vereen might get more of a chance at running with the ball with New York, but so far it hasn’t come to fruition as he remains predominantly a third-down back. He still has a chance to produce each week (eight catches for 76 yards in week two), but the fact he won’t be force-fed the ball may limit his seasonal upside. I am not keen on paying the price for him.
Chris Ivory, RB NYJ
March: 174, August: 120 (+54)
With all of this talk of ‘situation,’ we really can interpret that word differently for each running back/offense. Is the key to a good situation the opportunity for volume or is that volume irrelevant behind a bad line? Is a good line the key, even if a player isn’t a workhorse? We can argue that having a strong passing offense is beneficial to a back, but also say that the back won’t succeed as they aren’t the ‘focus.’ Sometimes we want to see proof on the field before we really go in on a player and so far Ivory has been the star. He should be the go-to guy in the Jets offense.
LeGarrette Blount & James White, RBs NE
Blount – March: 188, August: 131 (+57)
White – March: 234, August: 176 (+58)
Over the past few years, we’ve been excited by Stevan Ridley, Blount, Brandon Bolden, Shane Vereen, Jonas Gray and now Dion Lewis. Blount was supposed to be this year’s beneficiary of the Patriots free-scoring offense and White gained some steam as an option for the third-down role. However, in typical Belichick fashion, we have a surprisingly new face in town. The primary back never seems to be who we think it will be, so after two weeks of the Lewis show, don’t be surprised to see Blount get 20-plus carries and multiple touchdowns this week this Sunday. Just kidding. Or Am I?
Alfred Blue, RB HOU
March: 201, August: 160 (+41)
Blue is not Arian Foster and the Texans running game is simply not the same without the smooth, silky hamstrung veteran. But it’s almost that time! Last year, Foster had his highest yards-per-carry and yards-per-game totals since 2010, so don’t think he has lost that talent – he simply grows increasingly more susceptible to injury. When he plays, he is a must-start and makes Blue an afterthought. Former Eagle Chris Polk took the bulk of the carries against Carolina, so Blue may not even be a handcuff at this point.
Danny Woodhead, RB SD
March: 233, August: 162 (+71)
Woodhead was such a prime bounce-back candidate simply due to being forgotten about. After a great first season with the Chargers in 2013, he missed all of 2014 and hit a crazy ADP low at the beginning of the off-season. He was one of my favorite bargain buys, but honestly, he may have hit his high already. I have no doubt he will continue to be involved, but it won’t be long before Melvin Gordon is running the show. Woodhead is a great player to have in your lineup, but also a great player to move at this point. Owners are in a win-win situation.
This Year’s Gerhart?
Last off-season, Toby Gerhart rose a whopping twelve rounds in ADP (all the way up to #61 overall) and devastated owners when he didn’t produce on the field. That scenario is exactly why I do this study – he hadn’t proven anything on the field and didn’t have a strong offense, yet was handed and starting running back role and a ton of hype. Major risers like Randle and Gore had new roles handed to them this year, but we had very high expectations. Owners may want to cash out when they realize how far their value has come.
Next year, Chris Ivory, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller and Alfred Morris may all be on new teams and in new situations, so use this season to keep tabs on their value. If you like the talent, but don’t think the situation is right (many Miller fans might feel this way), buy before they have the opportunity to move to a new team.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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