Tuesday Transactions: Week Two

Eric Hardter

lee

Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own, and if you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. In that vein, given the small sample size thus far in the season I also believe it’s too soon to irrevocably change an opinion you spent an entire off-season cultivating. As such, for now these recommended moves will vary little, if at all, from my summertime beliefs.

In the interest of transparency, here were my week one suggestions:

Buy Low: Sammy Watkins, Dez Bryant and Ameer Abdullah

Sell High: Terrance Williams, Ladarius Green and Chris Johnson

Buy High: Jarvis Landry, Chris Ivory and Tyler Eifert

Sell Low: Rueben Randle, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins

Watkins got on the board in week two (6-60-1), Abdullah slowed down considerably (6-9-0, 1-9-0) and Bryant remains shelved. Williams saved his day with a late touchdown (4-84-1), Green put forward middling numbers (5-47-0) and Johnson failed to capitalize on a prime opportunity (20-72-0). Landry stayed hot (8-110-0), Eifert again led the team in receiving and reach the end zone again (4-49-1) and Ivory was decent (14/57/0). Randle continued to prove he belongs nowhere near a fantasy lineup (1-5-0), McCoy bounced back nicely (15-89-0, 3-27-0) and Watkins had an ugly fourth quarter drop that effectively ended the Bills’ comeback hopes.

Onto the fallout from week two!

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Buy Low

  1. Tony Romo, QB DAL – Though he lost out on a passing score due to a questionable call (and subsequent lack of reversal), Romo was on his way to another nice day at the office with 195 passing yards in a little under three quarters of work. Unfortunately, much like his superstar teammate Dez Bryant, Romo will be glued to the bench for what appears to be a minimum of eight weeks. Though it’s true quarterback is a devalued position in smaller formats, Romo still makes for a smart trade target for forward thinking owners looking for a post-season push. After all, this is a player who routinely finishes as a QB1 and posted 356 yards and three scores only a week ago. If you have the bench space I’d look to make a move.
  2. Marqise Lee, WR JAX – Everyone’s favorite afterthought finally got back on the field, and while the raw numbers (2-27-0) underwhelmed, his usage was encouraging. To that point, Lee’s four targets were tied for second on the team behind budding star Allen Robinson, despite the fact he missed virtually all of training camp. Though he currently remains the team’s WR3, it’s imperative to remember we’re talking about an early second round pick here – I think he’ll work his way back into the rotation and eventually post fantasy viable numbers.
  3. Victor Cruz, WR NYG – I’m not advocating selling the farm here, but take a moment to consider what the Giants are currently working with. New York’s second-most targeted player is a running back (albeit a talented one in Shane Vereen) and arguably the worst receiver in the league (Preston Parker) has sequestered 12 looks of his own (16%). My thoughts on Randle are already well known and the aggregate of this suggests there will be a massive target vacuum upon Cruz’ return. If nothing else, the volume should be there and the reward is much higher than the cost.

Sell High

  1. Cecil Shorts III, WR HOU – There’s a more than reasonable chance you won’t get anything of value in return here, but if nothing else there’s a case to be made for selling on usage alone. To wit, Shorts has received a whopping 20 targets over the past two weeks, though he’s only been able to corral 50% of them (a recurring theme dating back to his stint in Jacksonville). Always an injury risk, the time to divest yourself of Shorts is now.
  2. Michael Crabtree, WR OAK – One week after barely registering in the game log, Crabtree led the Raiders in receiving en route to a massive 9-111-1 line on a whopping 16 targets. Though it was nice to see, we’ve been down this road before, as the former 49er posted back-to-back lines of 7-82-1 and 10-80-1 in weeks two and three last year before disappearing down the stretch. It wouldn’t surprise me if this goes down as Crabtree’s best game of the season and if you have the depth to cash in on the current hype I’d do so.
  3. Leonard Hankerson, WR ATL – One week after putting forth a 2-16-0 line, “Hank-time” bounced back with six receptions for 77 yards and a score in week two. While that’s all well and good, he remains a receiver who’s barely scraped past 1,000 career receiving yards – the change of scenery clearly helps, but Roddy White isn’t going to pull this sort of disappearing act every week. I’d bail for a third round pick.

Buy High

  1. Julian Edelman, WR NE – All he does is produce. Through two weeks this year the Pats’ WR1 has already accumulated a massive 22 receptions for 194 yards and two scores. Much like divisional mate Jarvis Landry, he’s never going to have an impressive aDOT, but more importantly he has quarterback Tom Brady’s trust and an enormous target share. Only ranked as the WR29 in our positional rankings, there remains a chance to buy “high” at value.
  2. Matt Jones, RB WAS – While I’m not quite as big an Alfred Morris apologist as my Podcast co-host Karl Safchick, I still believe he’s one of the more underrated assets in fantasy football. With that said, it’s impossible to ignore how the Redskins view rookie third rounder Jones, who actually out-touched Morris in week two, looking good doing so. I still think if push comes to shove Morris will be the guy (Washington doesn’t get to play the Rams every week, after all), but he’s in the final season of his contract. If Jones plays well, he could be the unquestioned starter come 2016.
  3. Allen Robinson, WR JAX – As I stated on a recent Podcast, I never understood the hate towards A-Rob’s rookie season. He was one of the youngest rookies in the league, missed nearly all of training camp and still asserted himself as the team’s unquestioned WR1. No, he didn’t have a great first week of the 2015 season, but he showed Sunday what he’s capable of moving forward. No, he’s not a traditional “value” play, but as I say in the intro – “buying high beats buying higher.”

Sell Low

  1. Jeff Janis, WR GB – As our good buddy Rumford Johnny would say, take the loss. When Jordy Nelson went down, the Packers immediately signed old hat James Jones the minute he became available. When Davante Adams missed time during Sunday Night Football, rookie Ty Montgomery (more than capably) filled in. In other words, Janis is, for all intents and purposes, the team’s WR6 in the eyes of the coaches (including Nelson), and remains unlikely to make an impact outside of perhaps special teams. Regardless of this fact, there are many who remain tantalized by his physical upside, so you can likely still get a late pick for him.
  2. Drew Brees, QB NO – Sure, let’s keep it high profile! Brees, quite simply, hasn’t looked like the same guy this season, with twice as many turnovers than touchdowns to go with dramatic decreases in YPA and completion percentage. With rumors of a shoulder injury (severity currently unknown) threatening to tank his value even more, there might not be much of a market later on in the year. While I’m always hesitant to throw in the towel on elite assets, this seems like a perfect storm from which owners should steer clear.
  3. Matt Stafford, QB DET – See Brees above. Take away some garbage time drives in the season’s first couple of weeks and Stafford’s already pedestrian stats (51/83, 532 yards, 4 TD/3 INT) would look even worse. No longer a shoo-in for high-end (or even QB1) numbers, Stafford has simply underwhelmed the past few seasons despite an embarrassment of riches in his stable of pass catchers. With many of the old guard refusing to fall off, along with some of the league’s young guns beginning to declare themselves fantasy-ready, it’s fair to wonder if Stafford’s value will continue being squeezed on both ends. If I were an owner (I’m not), I’d be looking to get out before his trade market gets squeezed shut.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

[/am4show]

eric hardter