Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Two

George Kritikos

huddle

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game. Also, a “Number to Remember” will be provided that will center on a key statistic that will influence the game and your dynasty team.

Early Games

New England at Buffalo
Number to Remember (NTR) – 76%

I could have easily gone with Sammy Watkins and his zero receptions from week one, but I prefer to be an optimist. Instead, how about the 76% completion percentage New England cornerbacks allowed to Pittsburgh receivers? Malcolm Butler, who had the unfortunate assignment of Antonio Brown, gave up 10 catches on 11 targets overall and will likely see a lot of Watkins in this matchup.

Everyone seems to be high on Dion Lewis, but let’s remember that LeGarrette Blount is back. In games where Blount played last year, Shane Vereen (the player everyone is hoping Lewis becomes) averaged 40% fewer fantasy points (stat courtesy of Rotoviz). The game script could give Lewis another week of production, but long-term, he looks like a sell high as long as Blount is around.

LeSean McCoy sounds like he is still hobbled so we could see a fair amount of work for rookie Karlos Williams. Considering his week one production (six carries for 55 yards and a touchdown) along with DeAngelo Williams’ time traveling effort last week against the Patriots of 21 carries for 127 yards, there is opportunity to eat.

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Houston at Carolina
NTR – 59

In less than a quarter of work, Ryan Mallett connected on five passes for 59 yards to DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins overall had nine catches for 98 yards, Mallett accounting for 60% of Hopkins’ yards along with one of the two receiving touchdowns and a two point conversion. Knowing Mallett is slated to start on Sunday, Hopkins is looking like a nice option.

It has been so hard to decipher the tight end situation in Houston. The team actually used three tight ends, having them run 49 routes and targeting them six times last week. I am looking most closely at C.J. Fiedorowicz, who is the most talented, to eventually emerge and could have a decent game against an average defense against tight ends in Carolina.

While the team adjusts to life without Kelvin Benjamin, it appears Ted Ginn is getting some of that downfield work, albeit inefficiently. Ginn was targeted a team high seven times in week one (with two catches) and had a 16.s average depth of target per PFF. With him playing outside against either Kareem Jackson or Johnathan Joseph, he could struggle to reproduce that role.

San Diego at Cincinnati
NTR – 62%

Being down 18 in the second quarter necessitated the Chargers having to throw the ball 42 times, or 62% of their offensive plays. While they should be competitive in this game, Geno Atkins’ presence could make this another pass heavy game plan as they held the Raiders to just 3.9 yards per carry.

While the aftermath of week one focused on Danny Woodhead, Melvin Gordon may have been the better runner. Beyond the touchdown Gordon had that was called back, he managed more yards per attempt (3.6 to 3.5), fought through more contact (2.1 yards after contact vs 1.3), and caught all three passes thrown his way. Given the previous comments on pass/run ratio, I am curious to see how Gordon plays into their week two plans.

While I am not an IDP fantasy player, I found the Vincent Rey stat line interesting. He had nine tackles last week (six solo) but also allowed nine receptions in coverage. With Woodhead on the opposite side, I could see another week of heavy targeting and subsequent tackle opportunities.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
NTR – 22

Doug Martin did not have a target or touch for the last 22 minutes of the game in week one. Instead, Bobby Rainey and Charles Sims were involved as the score rose to 42-7 and the team finally went into pass mode. Considering New Orleans is projected for the second highest score in week two and the Bucs are the second lowest, we could see this again.

With the Saints’ secondary ailing, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins will likely be matched up against second stringers or a linebacker. Either way, he will have an advantage as Tampa Bay will be looking to pass often. While New Orleans was stout against tight ends in 2014 (only four touchdowns allowed), they did allow a few big plays to Darren Fells in week one.

Brandon Coleman had a nice week one, being targeted on 18% of his routes (more than the 16% for Brandin Cooks). After watching the Titans torch the Tampa Bay secondary, Coleman could easily see another week of seven or more targets and some work in the red zone.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh
NTR – 9

Colin Kaepernick managed 26 pass attempts on Monday, but only nine were to wide receivers. Last year, he averaged nearly 20 pass attempts to wide receivers per game. In this one, Kaep faces a soft set of cornerbacks and will need to score frequently to keep the team in the game. I expect this number to rise and may even be surpassed by Anquan Boldin alone.

If Carlos Hyde decides week one was his coming out party, I will be eating a heaping plate of crow. He broke tackles at a rate (0.27) that would make Marshawn Lynch proud. Much like New England in week one, San Francisco should mix their running backs into the passing game to keep the once stout Pittsburgh defense on its heels.

We saw a lot of Darrius Heyward-Bey in week one and expect it to continue here. Filling the downfield role while Martavis Bryant is injured, the former first rounder was targeted heavily in week one (four catches on seven targets). While Minnesota failed to test the deep part of the field against the 49ers, don’t expect Pittsburgh to similarly check down.

Tennessee at Cleveland
NTR – 158.3

This is a versatile number that can explain situations on both teams. For the Titans, Marcus Mariota managed a perfect quarterback rating in his week one encounter with the Tampa Bay defense. For the Browns, it is the quarterback rating allowed by Joe Haden, the supposed top cornerback for the team in week one. Seems like a perfect match.

Did you know Justin Hunter led the team in wide receiver snaps (34)? He is still around, but Mariota only targeted him twice. That may be due to the fact he was third in routes run (10) while Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas each ran 13. If Mariota continues to play anywhere near this level, the allocation of receiver plays will be one to monitor.

The Titans gave up over one rushing touchdown per game in 2014 so why can’t Isaiah Crowell get in on the fun? The second year runner was held to just 20 yards on 12 carries while Duke Johnson managed more (22 yards) with fewer (seven carries). I expect Duke to get double digit carries this week but there is a good chance the Crow eats in the red zone at least once.

Arizona at Chicago
NTR – 2.96

Carson Palmer was given a very clean pocket in week one, which his zero sacks and 2.96 seconds to throw tell you. The latter number was fifth highest in the league as the Saints failed to generate a pass rush, something the Bears will need in order to prevent a repeat of Palmer’s week one performance.

Quite simply, the Bears have a bad run defense. However, Andre Ellington’s absence opens the door for a Johnson to take hold. Chris Johnson, he of the once-proud CJ2K moniker, will likely have the first chance to take advantage. However, most expect rookie David Johnson to get his share, and if the 55-yard touchdown from week one is any indication, he will take advantage.

The prognosis on Alshon Jeffery as of this writing was questionable, so the team will need Eddie Royal to step up here. The veteran was only able to catch one pass on five targets last week, which was disappointing considering he ran 35 routes and led the receivers in total snaps (62). Whether he gets Patrick Peterson is uncertain, but he will have to do more in an effort to get Jay Cutler going.

Detroit at Minnesota
NTR – 5

Teddy Bridgewater was content to check down, as evident by only five pass attempts out of 32 exceeding 20 yards downfield (with just one completion). While he was accurate (72% completion rate), that was a product of him playing safe rather than test what was a suspect 49ers secondary. He will need to do better here.

Lost amidst the tight end explosion of week one (more touchdowns were produced by the position than wide receiver, an NFL first) was Eric Ebron. Catching four of five passes, including a touchdown, gave Ebron his biggest fantasy contribution to date. The 49ers’ tight ends managed seven catches on the Minnesota defense last week so I expect Ebron to get a few opportunities for big plays.

Fresh off a new contract, Jarius Wright decided week one was not a part of the deal. He caught just one of four targets and was largely invisible in a game where the team was consistently trailing. The collective Lions cornerback group gave up catches on 85% of their targets so Wright should look to open the field up for Bridgewater.

Atlanta at New York Giants
NTR – 6

Six represents the number of drops the Giants pass catchers had in week one, leading the NFL. Preston Parker managed three of those on his own but even last year’s rookie sensation Odell Beckham, Jr. even had one. Much like last week, the team will not win this game if Eli Manning watches his receivers fumble his passes.

A favorite of DLFer Eric Breeze (favorite may be a slight stretch), Paul Worrilow managed nine total tackles including eight solos per PFF. This week, he faces a Giants team who would love to get their running game on track. Atlanta did allow the most rushing touchdowns and the seventh most rushing attempts so expect Worrilow to see a lot of work once again.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants are still figuring out exactly which running back will take advantage of this porous Falcons run defense. Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen were more successful in week one but the team seems to like Andre Williams. My money is on Jennings leading the charge here with the other two mixed into the run game sporadically.

Saint Louis at Washington
NTR – -2

Let’s quickly bring any Tavon Austin fans back down to earth. The negative two represents the receiving yards he had in week one on two catches. If you want to bank on rushing and return touchdowns, feel free but I own zero shares and that number plans to stay stagnant.

Nick Foles ladies and gentlemen! He nearly put up 300 yards (297) against the Super Bowl contending Seahawks last week and completed two thirds of his passes. He gets another tough pass rush to face with a few holes in the secondary. I am looking to see if a repeat is in store.

Kirk Cousins is running low on receiving options but Pierre Garcon is capable of picking up the slack. 2013 was a year where he managed over ten targets per game (catching 65% of them) and there is little reason to believe he won’t approach those numbers in this game. Expect a few more downfield routes for him given DeSean Jackson’s absence but he could return WR2 numbers at a minimum here.

Afternoon Games

Baltimore at Oakland
NTR – 18

Last week’s highlight, Latavius Murray, managed 18 touches for the Oakland offense. Which is more impressive: his seven pass catches or the fact he was the bell cow despite the early deficit?

So I was way off on Kamar Aiken’s week one but someone needs to emerge next to Steve Smith for Joe Flacco to live up to his “elite” status. Jokes aside, Marlon Brown was the only receiver besides Smith to manage multiple catches. Flacco has shown trust in him before so maybe he is the short-term answer.

After Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, Seth Roberts was third in Raiders’ receiver targets. Butler had six targets, reeling in three of them in the loss to Cincinnati. The 2014 undrafted player from West Alabama could become the third receiver the team was searching for all offseason.

Dallas at Philadelphia
NTR – 55

The latest Vegas line has this game as the highest scoring of the week with a combined point total of 55. This should be a point of interest for owners making those lineup decisions as it is likely we see a majority of these starters returning playable value.

Now that Dez Bryant is out, who will emerge? Based on pay, Cole Beasley needs to be more involved. While Terrence Williams will handle more of those downfield and red zone responsibilities, Beasley is a player Tony Romo is comfortable with and will look to when a play breaks down. Expect the six targets from last week to be surpassed in this game.

Roles are starting to become clear in the Eagles receiving depth chart. Riley Cooper and Josh Huff look to be the run blocking options while Jordan Matthews and rookie Nelson Agholor will be the first options in the pass game. Much like last game where all four saw at least 35 snaps, they should again be rotated fairly regularly.

Miami at Jacksonville
NTR – 13

The number of carries for Lamar Miller will be monitored by the Dolphins and fantasy owners alike. The 13 from last week do not seem bad but given how close the game was, it was frustrating to watch the team continually go to the air with middling success.

Tight end Jordan Cameron repeatedly worked the seam against Washington in week one and now faces a team who effectively shut down Greg Olsen. The difference here is that the Dolphins have threats at the receiver position and Jacksonville has been more of a neutral option than they showed last week (17th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends in 2014).

Rashad Greene led the team in targets (13) and catches (seven) but is it impressive when it went for only 28 yards? While other receivers have higher upside, Greene could carve out a role underneath, especially while Julius Thomas is out.

Sunday Night Game

Seattle at Green Bay
NTR – 41

I cannot imagine the Seahawks wanted Russell Wilson to pass 41 times when the game plan was being drawn up for week one. Considering he never surpassed the 40 attempt threshold in 2014, this will likely an aberration and something the team will need to avoid in order to control the tempo in this game.

Much to the chagrin of dynasty players, Jermaine Kearse is not loosening his grip on the receiver job to either rookie Tyler Lockett or Super Bowl sensation Chris Matthews. Kearse caught eight of ten passes thrown his way last week and remains a determined run blocker for the team. All signs point to him remaining a fixture in the lineup, but Lockett could syphon targets starting here.

The curveball of week one may have been the re-emergence of James Jones. He picked on Alan Ball to the tune of four catches with two touchdowns. Seattle has a few better corners but with the plethora of receiving options, at least one of them will surprise opposite Randall Cobb.

Monday Night Game

New York Jets at Indianapolis
NTR – 50%

All the talk of high completion percentages makes the New York Jets secondary look that much more impressive. The cornerback group allowed just eight of 16 completions in week one, something that should be tested by Andrew Luck in this primetime game.

The supposed shallow depth behind Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall makes Chris Owusu’s week one a surprise. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chan Gailey like to spread the ball so the six targets to Owusu do hold some value. With Vontae Davis expected to cover Decker or Marshall, Owusu could sneak in another good game before the masses pay attention.

With the difficult task of navigating the New York secondary, I suspect Dwayne Allen to be more involved here. Add in injury (T.Y. Hilton), ineffectiveness (Andre Johnson), and inexperience (Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett); the table seems set for Allen to exploit an uncertain situation.

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