Running Over Your Competition

This article is written by a new Member Corner writer, Mark Johnson. We welcome Mark to our Member Corner and look forward to seeing more of his work in the future.

*  All referenced statistics are from a standard (Non-PPR) scoring format!

Over the past several seasons, fantasy football experts have urged us to value wide receivers over running backs and, year after year, I’m sure many have paid the price.  Is it true that, on average, receivers last longer in the NFL than backs?  Yes.  Is it also true those receivers that do last in the league remain fantasy-relevant longer than the backs that last?  Perhaps.  However, at its very core, fantasy football is all about mitigating risk and capitalizing where your opponents do not.  And, in my opinion, to remain in contention year after year in your dynasty league, you will need to do so on the shoulders of your running game and below I will show you why.

Do You Really Know That DeVante Parker Will Be Producing in 2025? 

Before getting into the meat of my analysis, I’ll first share some information regarding positional career longevity in the NFL, which leads most dynasty owners to make mistakes when ranking players each year.  A receiver’s career in the NFL, on average, lasts 2.81 years, whereas the average career length for an NFL running back is 2.51 years—both below the 3.3-year average for NFL players (at any position).  Taking another step back, players drafted in the first round of the NFL draft (at any position) survive in the NFL for an average of 9.3 years—a whopping six years more than the NFL average.  Moreover, when a player makes a club’s opening day roster their rookie season, they last in the NFL for an average of six years (regardless of their position).[1]

Sure, any statistic can be taken and molded to formulate a compelling argument and I am sure these figures are skewed by all of the linemen and various defensive personnel, but what I am hoping to convey by sharing this information is merely that one’s NFL career length is dictated by each respective player’s skill level moreso than any other factor.  While, overall, it is true that receivers last longer in the NFL and remain fantasy-relevant for longer periods of time than do running backs, on average, due to the respective wear and tear that traditionally accompanies each position, it is foolish to assume that every young receiver (yes, even those highly touted out of college) that is ranked in the “Top-ten” each year will enjoy a 10+ year NFL career.  Sure, it is unlikely you are going to draft the next Emmitt Smith (14 “fantasy relevant” seasons) in your next rookie draft, but you probably won’t draft the next Jerry Rice either (15 “fantasy relevant” seasons)…

[1] http://www.statista.com/statistics/240102/average-player-career-length-in-the-national-football-league/

Running Backs vs. Wide Receivers (2010-2014)

In 2014, six of the top-25 fantasy scorers were backs (Demarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, and Eddie Lacy) compared to only two receivers (Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson).  In 2013, five of the top-25 fantasy scorers were backs (Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, and Knowshon Moreno) compared to three receivers (Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, and Josh Gordon).

In 2012, again, six of the top-25 fantasy scorers were backs (Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris, and Ray Rice) while zero receivers cracked the top-25.  In 2011, four backs were among the top-25 fantasy scorers (Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, and Marshawn Lynch) compared to four receivers (Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Wes Welker, and Victor Cruz). Finally, in 2010, nine of the top-25 fantasy scorers were backs (Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Peyton Hillis, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, and Ray Rice) compared to zero receivers that cracked the top-25 list that same year.[2]  Over the past five NFL seasons, there have never been more receivers than backs to crack the top-25.  Moreover, during the past five NFL seasons, there have been 30 backs to boast a top-25 fantasy scoring season, whereas there have been only nine receivers to accomplish the same feat.

This means, on average, you should be able to find six backs in the top-25 at the end of each season, compared to just below two (1.8) wide receivers.

[2] http://fantasy.nfl.com/research/scoringleaders

Running Backs vs. Wide Receivers

Career vs. Career

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Now let’s compare the careers of the names that made this list most over the past five seasons: (i) Marshawn Lynch; (ii) Matt Forte; (iii) Arian Foster; (iv) Calvin Johnson; and (v) Jordy Nelson.  Calvin Johnson is a first-ballot hall-of-fame caliber receiver with more talent than any other receiver prospect over the past decade-and-a-half.  Since blowing up during his sophomore season in 2008, he’s delivered seven-straight seasons as a tier-one receiver.  However, Johnson is beginning to slip in rankings as he approaches age 30 (sound familiar to those at another position?).   He has had a tremendous career and will likely deliver us a couple more highly productive seasons, but can his 6’5 frame withstand 80-100 more tackles each year on the turf in Detroit?

Next, let’s look at Marshawn Lynch.  Year after year, many declare that Lynch will cease to produce at a high level due to his overtly physical style of play.  At the beginning of his career, Lynch delivered two seasons as a tier-one back for a terrible Buffalo Bills team before becoming a forgotten man in 2009 and 2010.  Then, Beast Mode burst back onto the scene in 2011 and has been a top tier-one back for four seasons in a row—totaling, count it, six seasons as a tier-one back.  His prospects look bright again for 2015.

How about Matt Forte?  He has only given fantasy-footballers seven straight seasons of no less than 1,200 total yards from scrimmage per season, doing so right out-of-the-gate for the Chicago Bears in 2008.  So, where is Forte going in re-draft leagues this year, now that he is soooo old?  You guessed it—first-round.  Forte is set to provide yet another season as a tier-one back for an eighth consecutive season.

Sure, injuries have plagued Arian Foster’s career, but even he has delivered four fantasy seasons as a top-level tier-back during his seven-year career.

Finally, there is Jordy Nelson, who will sadly miss all of the 2015 season due to an ACL injury. Nelson will be turning 31 before the 2016 season and has only delivered three seasons as a tier-one receiver during his seven-year career.[1]

I could go on and on and on, next showing you the 2005 through 2009 top-25 fantasy scorers’ lists and expanding upon each player’s career statistics, but rather than boring you, I will simply tell you that tier-one backs deliver more fantasy impact on a yearly basis than do tier-one receivers, and it is not that close.  Furthermore, aside from a few outliers, the careers of perennial top backs are not that much different in length (of fantasy-relevancy) than the careers of the perennial top receivers.  So why is it that, now, every year we hear fantasy football experts encouraging us to draft receivers over backs (in both dynasty and re-draft), and to do so early in our drafts?

[3] www.nfl.com

Why Should We Change?

The reason is simple to me.  There is greater depth at the receiver position than there is at running back and, therefore, more reason to wait on the position when drafting. Think about it.  On most NFL teams, there are two  and, sometimes, three receivers in the standard offense.  Furthermore, on teams able to move the ball with regularity (sorry, Oakland), you will often find two fantasy-relevant wide receivers.

Comparative Statistical Analysis

Last year, there were 45 wide receivers to score at least 100 fantasy points.  In 2013, there were 40.  In 2012, there were 41 receivers to score at least 100 points.  In 2011, there were 39 and in 2010, there were 33.  That number has been consistently trending upwards over the past five seasons and after last year’s rookie performances, there is no reason to believe that trend will not continue.

But wait, let’s compare this to the backs…

Last year, 32 backs scored at least 100 fantasy points.  In 2013, 35 backs put up at least 100 fantasy points.  In 2012, 28 did.  For the 2011 campaign, 30 backs put up 100 fantasy points or more,and in 2010, only 24.

Now, I chose the number 100 objectively, as that breaks down to just 6.25 fantasy points per game, and less than that seemed hard to classify as “relevant,” but found even greater differences between the positions when I dropped the cut-off-point down to 95 and 90, respectively.

Continuing along…

The average number of running backs to score 100 fantasy points or more in a season is 29.8 (meaning there are less running backs, on average, to produce 100 points each season than there are NFL teams).  However, conversely, the average number of receivers to score 100 fantasy points or more is 39.6—approximately 10 more each season in comparison to running backs.  What does this tell us?  First and foremost, it tells us the wide receiver position is “deeper” than the running back position.  This should come as no surprise since a back typically needs to emerge as the “bell cow” on his team before becoming “fantasy relevant”, Darren Sproles and Lendale White aside.

Also, it is important to mention that I am simply showing you the figures from the end of each of the last five seasons.  You can bet those players were not all projected to finish where they did.  This is where the gamble comes in and it is a gamble we take at each and every position when we draft.

It was not long ago that Brandon Lloyd finished as the top scoring fantasy receiver.  Did any of the fantasy experts you follow predict that one?  My thinking is simple and always has been – let me stock up on backs early while the rest of my league targets receivers and then grab a few wide receivers while the rest of the league is picking through my scraps.  Following this, I’m in perfect position to snag those ever-important handcuffs and, of course, the tight end and quarterback I’ve had my eye on as a value pick the entire time.  Obviously, I’m referring to my re-draft strategy at the moment, but the same plays out in dynasty start-up drafts as well.  And, the very same thing can play out in your rookie draft each year, too, only on a smaller scale.

Much of this will be dictated by your draft position, so I ask you to treat this as guidance rather than a steadfast rule, as there is no way I would recommend anyone pass on Antonio Brown for the likes of Alfred Morris or a player  of that nature.

Top-ten Wide Receivers vs. Top-ten running backs 2009-2014

The following numbers show the average points scored by a top-ten running back for each respected year:

Over the past five seasons, the average season score for a top-ten running back in fantasy comes out to 230.22.

Now, let’s look at the same chart as it relates to the average points scored by a top-ten wide receiver over the same years:

Over the past five seasons, the average season score for a top-ten wide receiver in fantasy comes out to 199.37.

I am a huge advocate for providing statistics and simply sharing my thoughts on them while allowing you to draw your own conclusions.  Therefore, rather than draw some fanatical conclusion based upon these charts, I will simply share with you my assessment of them.  While it is evident that the points scored by top-ten receivers is trending upward, it is also clear that a top-ten back will score you more points than a top-ten receiver will in any given season.  Even with the 2011 anomaly on the running back chart, the average top-ten back still scores you 30.85 more points per season than a top-ten receiver will, which comes out to 1.928 points per game (and I know all of you serious fantasy footballers out there have seen smaller margins of victory than that in your weekly matchups).

Comparing WR1-75 and RB1-75 From 2009-2014

In this next section, I am going to show you a couple of charts I made detailing the differences between the running back and wide receiver positions as it relates to fantasy scoring over the past five NFL seasons.  First, I will show you how many fantasy points the WR1, WR10, WR20, WR30, WR40, WR50, and WR75 scored in each season from 2010 through 2014.  Next, I will calculate the per-season and per-game averages at each ranking.  Then, I will do the same thing for the RB1, RB10, RB20, RB30, RB40, RB50, and RB75 for the same seasons—calculating the per-season and per-game averages at each ranking over that same span of time.  Finally, I will offer my assessments of the collective data.

Wide Receiver Points-Per-Rank From 2010 to 2014

Running Back Points-Per-Rank From 2010 to 2014

Just look at the fall-off from the RB20 to RB40 spot as it relates to the averages.  The average RB20 scored 138.96 points on the season (8.68 points per game), while the average RB40 scored 73.52 points on the season (4.59 points per game).  A difference between of 4.09 points per game is especially significant when we compare it to the wide receivers.  The average WR20 scored 138.66 points on the season (8.66 points per game), while the average WR40 scored 99.62 points on the season (6.22 points per game).  This is a difference of just 2.44 points per game between WR20 and WR40.  As I am sure many of you have noticed, these charts correspond to the data I shared above with respect to the number of fantasy-relevant players at each position.  The charts above demonstrate that the “fall-off” occurs at an earlier point for backs than it does for receivers.[4]

At this point, some of you may be thinking, “Oh sure, if this was half-point-PPR like my league, everything would be different.”  Sure, there would be variations to the data you see above, but if anything, I’m sure we’d likely find an even larger number of fantasy-relevant receivers and an even greater disparity between the numbers of fantasy-relevant receivers and fantasy-relevant backs.

[4] All historical fantasy scoring statistics were derived from: http://fantasy.nfl.com/research/scoringleaders

My Personal Experience

My primary purpose in writing this article is to offer perspective. As a recent law school graduate and long-time fantasy-football player, I understand the importance of good-spirited debate.  In law school, professors teach using the “Socratic method,” which is a form of inquiry and open discussion between classmates, based upon the professor asking debate-inspiring questions to the class, the students answering these questions and then engaging one another.  There are many reasons this is the preferred method of instruction in American law schools, but the most important reason is that debate helps people learn how to formulate rational, reasoned arguments and to provide evidence supporting those arguments.  It also better equips individuals with the skills of researching, organizing, and presenting information in a compelling fashion.

As I read through material on countless fantasy football web sites, I am more often than not finding one common denominator: the majority of fantasy football experts have gone receiver crazy.  I can’t tell you when this happened, or why this happened, but I have a hunch.  As more NFL teams began using a running-back-by-committee, making it more difficult to figure out who to own at the running back position, NFL teams began passing at a never-before-seen rate, causing there to be more and more value at the receiver position.  Then, take into account the injuries that have hurt us over the years at the running back position (i.e. Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, etc), and we can begin to learn how things came to be deluded in this regard.

Would I bring this argument to you with out the evidence to back it up?  Heck no.

On the “NFL Single-Season Pass Attempts Leaders” list, eight of the top-ten are from the past five seasons (2010-2014), and 16 of the top-25 from that list are from the past five seasons.  Teams are passing more.  On the “NFL Single-Season Passing Touchdown” list, half of the top-ten come from the past five seasons.  Finally, eight of the top-ten from the NFL Single-Season Passing Yards Leaders list came from, you guessed it, the past five NFL seasons.  So, not only are teams passing more, they are scoring more passing touchdowns (and thus receiving) than ever before.

Meanwhile, only one from the NFL Single-Season Rushing Attempts Leaders list (Demarco Murray, 2014) cracked the top-ten.  What I found most interesting was that, despite all of these passing yards, only three times did a receiver have a season during that span that cracked the top-ten of the NFL Single-Season Receiving Yards Leaders list, and only six times did a receiver—between 2010 and 2014—have a season that cracked the top-25 from this list.  Sixteen of the top-25 off the NFL Single-Season Passing Yards Leaders list came from the past five seasons.  So, what does this tell us?  NFL teams are passing like never before and they are spreading the ball around.[5]

In my high stakes fantasy league comprised of all of my college buddies, I have made the championship a staggering six-straight times and it wasn’t until I sat down to write this article that I realized just how heavily I have relied upon my running game to get me there each and every season.  Sure, one year I had Victor Cruz help me as he exploded his way through his breakout season, but can you guess when I drafted him?  Yup, the end of the draft.

In 2010, my MVP’s were Michael Vick and Rashard Mendenhall.  In 2011, yes, there was Victor Cruz, but Ray Rice was hands-down my MVP.  In 2012, it was Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson who lifted me to the promise land (both coming off season-ending injuries the season before).

In 2013,  we decided to modify the league into a dynasty league.  I drafted Jamaal Charles with my first-round pick, and later selected Montee Ball, DeMarco Murray and Fred Jackson.  I wound up dealing Murray and Jackson for Stevan Ridley and Doug Martin (early in the 2013 season).  I turned right around and dealt Doug Martin for Marshawn Lynch, straight up, and later, dealt Montee Ball.  I wound up winning the league in 2013 and Lynch and Charles were the reasons I did.  In 2014, I drafted Tre Mason with the 1.12 in our league’s inaugural rookie draft and battled my way back to the championship and a second-place finish again on the backs of Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch.

As I prepared myself for our league’s rookie draft this past Sunday, I see list after list of this year’s “top rookies,” and I keep seeing the same trend: receivers consistently being ranked more favorably than backs.  However, as you are all well aware, in standard dynasty leagues, there are deep-to-very-deep rosters and practically just tumbleweeds on the waiver wire when it comes to running backs, should you face a mid-season injury.  So, make sure you have your handcuffs and rather than shying away from the running back position because you mistakenly believe the position to be an irrelevant one, make sure you have depth where it is most needed.

Not to say that I will be ignoring this year, or any other year’s receivers, but suffice it to say that while my league members are busy selecting the Breshad Perriman’s and Jaelen Strong’s of the world, I will be busy stacking my roster with the likes of Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, Matt Jones, and with any luck and a draft-time trade, maybe even Jameis Winston to boot.

[5] http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/

Conclusion

Matthew Berry often wisely hedges his fantasy advice by reminding fantasy owners that they, and not he, are the owners of their fantasy teams, and explains that at the end of the day it’s on them.  And, I am going to do the same.  If you have Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, and Tre Mason on your team, I am in no way advising you to pass on DeVante Parker with the third pick in your rookie draft to reach for T.J. Yeldon, nor I am telling you that you’d be a fool for taking Kevin White over Melvin Gordon with the third or fourth selection.  I’m simply trying to shed light on what I feel is a common misconception around fantasy football and help you see that running backs are of at least equal value to wide receivers (and are probably more important early in the draft for dynasty start-ups and re-draft leagues).  With that being said, I do not like what I have seen from Melvin Gordon and I would not feel comfortable using his name without expressing my thoughts on the player (they’re negative).

Who knows if Todd Gurley will be the next big thing at running back and, for that matter, who knows where any of these guys will be in five years?  What I do know is that you and I, we’ll still be playing fantasy football and as far as dynasty goes, you’ll have a better chance of being in contention five years from now if you do some critical thinking and understand the true value of the running back position.

Best of luck to you all in 2015 and beyond and please feel free to contact me if you have any questions you’d like answered.

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