The DLF Mailbag: Bonus Edition
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
1.) In a start-up league that has already drafted, I have a bunch of RB2/3 types and some rookies like TJ Yeldon, Matt Jones and Mike Davis. I am looking for an upgrade for an RB1 and am willing to offering both CJ Spiller and Jones in a two-for-one deal. What is a fair expectation to receive back? – Kiko in DC
It’s honestly going to depend on how your potential trade partner views your prospective offering, as both CJ Spiller and Matt Jones represent two of the higher variance assets in a dynasty setting. If he’s willing to eschew a bit of market value, you might even be able to aim as high as a player such as Lamar Miller (pie in the sky, I realize), or perhaps someone like Ameer Abdullah or Carlos Hyde. If the value pendulum swings the opposite direction, however, you might not be able to improve on Spiller in any tangible sense. If I was you I’d appeal to either the Mark Ingram (Spiller) or Alfred Morris (Jones) owners and see if they’re interested in locking up the backfield, which might yield you a little more on the top in exchange for your trade partner’s peace of mind.
2.) In my 12-man non-PPR league I currently have the first two picks in our draft that includes rookies, free agents, and dropped players. Now, you may already have the answer as to what I should do with those first two picks, but I LOVE RUNNING BACKS and I’ve been thinking of going with Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon from the start. But Gordon has been struggling and now Amari Cooper looks fantastic. I’m frustratingly torn, thoughts? – JC in FL
[inlineadEven given the non-PPR setting of your league, which typically places a greater emphasis on the running back position, I’m sticking to my guns here that Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper are the two best players in the draft. I’m less concerned about Melvin Gordon’s slow preseason than what currently seems to be the popular opinion (he’s a rookie, give him some time!), but more simply I just don’t think he’s on the same level as the other two. As always, my strategy for the upper tier of rookie drafts remains the same – best player available.
3.) In a start-up 12-team, PPR dynasty league, I’ve got an offer on the table for my Dez Bryant and Cameron Artis-Payne. He’s offering Melvin Gordon, DeVante Parker, a 2016 first round pick and two 2016 second rounders. I’ve already sold my 2016 first round pick for Todd Gurley. I’m not sure if I can compete this year with my weak running backs, but I definitely can’t compete this year without Dez. Thoughts? – Matt in TX
[inlinead]This is a tough one. Dez Bryant is not only the best player in the deal, but he’s also the only proven commodity. Sure, you’d be receiving what’s essentially the equivalent of two top-five picks from this year’s draft, plus an additional first and two future second rounders, but what you’re losing is the comfort of knowing what you have. What if DeVante Parker and Gordon don’t pan out? What if selling Dez causes your trade partner’s picks to fall towards the end of the round? All of a sudden you’re left with little more than question marks.
But still, I think you have to do the deal. Few, if any players are worth three first round picks+, and that’s just too much value to turn down. And as we know, highly drafted rookies usually tend to gain value as the year goes on, and that first round pick next year will do the same – the value is there now, and it should only increase as time goes on.
4.) I have Jamaal Charles and am trying to work a trade for Knile Davis, who is a good handcuff for Charles. What is Davis worth in a keeper league with no contract lengths, only a salary cap and a 53-player maximum limitation. – Steve in CA
Not much as far as I’m concerned. The simple, yet inexcusably ignored truth about Knile Davis is that he’s bad at football. Going to the numbers, in the 32 games he’s played in his career, he’s only averaged over 4.0 YPC seven times! In other words, Davis reached the universally recognized benchmark of bottom-barrel efficiency under 25% of the time – that’s just beyond awful. If you really want to trade for him, I guess you could send a future fourth round pick (maybe a third if you think it’ll be late), but there’s really no point in investing much more in a deficient player.
5.) I am in an empire league (a full dynasty where half the entry money goes to the big pot, and if someone wins back to back years they win the big pot and the league disbands). I am the reigning emperor and I have a chance to win the big pot. Should I trade away Matt Jones who I really like for Fred Jackson if he signs in Seattle? My other running backs are Marshawn Lynch, CJ Anderson, Le’Veon Bell, Gio Bernard, Montee Ball and Jay Ajayi. – Marc in Mars
I wouldn’t. While I understand Fred Jackson would appear to be the better “win now” asset on the surface, truth be told that has significantly more to do with age than usage. To that point, we know Marshawn Lynch is locked in as the Seahawks’ bell-cow, and the RB2 shouldn’t be slated for anything more than 80 or so carries and a handful of receptions. Redskins rookie Matt Jones actually appears to have the better opportunity, as the team is likely to be horrible once again and they’ll constantly be playing from behind. No, I haven’t bought into the recent hot takes that he’s better than the perpetually underrated Alfred Morris (how many crowns do we need to make for these pre-season coronations, anyhow?), but the role will be there. As you’re already established with your top-three guys, Jones offers you the better combination of age and upside for your RB4/5.
6.) My team is in position to win this year. I have a trade offer of Nelson Agholor and a 2016 first round pick for Jarvis Landry, who is my WR3. Is this a good trade and how much would it hurt my chances of winning this year? It is also possible that I could squeeze an additional 2017 first out of him as well. – Brian in MN
I’m probably the driver of the Jarvis Landry bandwagon, but even I don’t think I could turn this offer down. Very few players are worth two first round picks (I’m equating Nelson Agholor to a mid-first here), and I just don’t think Landry is one of them. I’d take it and not look back, and if you need to upgrade you could probably get more back later due to your trade partner’s current overpayment. At the worst, Agholor should get you by this year as a serviceable WR3.
7.) My team has been a top-three team for three years running, and I have an offer where I give Matt Forte for two first round picks. I am pretty solid at running back (Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, Joseph Randle, Matt Forte and Todd Gurley), so I have been mulling this offer for a few days. I would rather be a year early than a year late with trading Forte, but just do not want to risk hurting my team too much. Forte is 29 and in a contract year. What are your thoughts? My inclination is to make the deal but I am just concerned about the law of unintended consequences. – Jason in NJ
By now, I’m well known as a dynasty conservative and almost always side with the proven entities when it comes to constructing my roster through drafting and trades. But with that said, it’s impossible to ignore the advancing age and workload, and subsequent potential decline of Bears running back Matt Forte. I still think he’s a great player, and am an owner myself, but you’re getting great return on a guy who is in a contract year and could be approaching the edge. Yes, he’ll likely pay dividends this year, but as you mentioned you don’t want to be a year too late. Given your current stable of ball carriers I’d look to make the deal, and get an influx of youth in next year’s draft.
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