Off-Season Reflections: Changes at the Top
Every summer, I study ADP fluctuations of players, unearthing not only how much their value has changed; but also why it did. We must reflect on the past in order to learn from our mistakes (and successes), but production shouldn’t be the only factor in whether or not we were right or wrong: price must also be considered. Lamar Miller, Toby Gerhart and Cordarrelle Patterson have been fine examples of off-season media-driven hype over the last few years, but hopefully they will have made us better at predicting who will succeed and who to be wary of. The latest valuation of players we have is from our August ADP data, and now might be the last chance to act on what has happened over the summer. Do you really feel a player will breakout this year? Buy them before it happens on the field. Have you grown sceptical of a player whose hype has gained too much steam? Get out before it’s too late.
In this series, I take a player’s ADP rank in March (the first month in which the rookies were included in the data) and show how that rank has changed from then to now. Any notable changes are listed; otherwise the player is omitted as their value has remained very stable. As I did last year, I want to preface the study by making it clear it only takes one drafter in each mock to inflate any given player’s ADP. However, it is still the best way to get an idea of how dynasty drafters feel about each player.
Note: Each part of the series will focus on different groups of players. This part looks at changes in the top 50 (not including rookies).
Changes at the Top
Brandin Cooks, WR NO
March ADP Rank: 25, August ADP Rank: 16 (+9)
Picks at the top of startup drafts or trades for highly-touted players naturally have massive impacts on your teams. Even just a small bump in price at the top can be the difference between a player being worth it or not. Cooks has moved from a top-of-the third round selection to a high second round one, after the Saints seemingly decided that they no longer needed their superstar tight end Jimmy Graham. If we invest in Cooks at this price, will he live up to it? Or might we be able to receive similar production from a cheaper comparable? Personally, I am totally on board with his ascension to stardom, as his combination of talent and quarterback has me licking my chops.
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Jamaal Charles, RB KC
March: 26, August: 19 (+7)
JC Superstar’s performances shouldn’t be taken for granted. His 5.5 yards per carry over his career is the highest of all time among running backs (who have played in the last sixty years) and he continues to amaze on the field. Apparently, drafters recognize this as, even at age 28, we don’t expect him to slow down any time soon. As Andy Reid develops his passing game with the additions of Jeremy Maclin and Chris Conley, Charles should thrive as a receiver and continue to be a rare workhorse back with big-play potential on every touch.
Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
March: 13, August: 20 (-7)
Maybe we were expecting the Bills to draft a quarterback, or maybe we hadn’t quite yet come to terms with how dire Watkins situation would be in 2015 with Matt Cassel or EJ Manuel at the helm. The saving grace, for this year at least, may be Tyrod Taylor. He showed flashes of playmaking ability in the preseason, but how beneficial will he be for the passing offense? Will the team be able to feed Watkins enough to be a certified fantasy receiver? For believers in the second-year man, like me, there may be a window this season to buy him at his cheapest. This ADP fall, at least in the short term; is justified.
Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
March: 16, August: 23 (-7)
This slight fall was before the Jordy Nelson injury and I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw him fall even further in more recent drafts. I still think you’re getting bang for your buck here. He is arguably the greatest quarterback of our generation who has many years of outstanding production left (he’s only 31). If Rodgers is going at all cheaply in your leagues, buy now.
CJ Anderson, RB DEN
March: 39, August: 27 (+12)
After studying Anderson’s game-by-game performances earlier this season, I was astonished. He has gained continued steam over the summer, but he is one player who I feel it is worth it for. He got my vote for Fantasy MVP in 2015, and is talented enough to be a top back after Peyton Manning hangs up his cleats. Well worth a rise.
Jimmy Graham, TE SEA
March: 19, August: 28 (-9)
It still seems strange typing out “Jimmy Graham, TE SEA.” He and Drew Brees have been one of fantasy football’s most consistent touchdown-making combos for the last few years and with Graham coming off a ‘down’ year, there are bound to be doubts as to whether he can match his production from previous campaigns. However, I see this as an opportunity to pounce. This time last year, he was ranked eighth overall and now he can be had in the third round. Although Brees is obviously a more prolific passer than Russell Wilson, we still haven’t seen the best of the Seahawks’ quarterback. His ascension will continue, and Graham will be heavily involved.
Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
March: 54, August: 31 (+23)
Peterson experienced a typical tremendous fall that goes along with missing a year of football, followed by the rise expected from a superstar as we approach his return to action (check out his last year of ADP ranks on his player page. This all comes down to your belief in him – if he can give two or three more years of pre-suspension Adrian Peterson, he will be thoroughly worth an investment now, as his owners will hold tight once he hits the field.
LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
March: 20, August: 33 (-13)
He was extremely inefficient despite a large volume of touches last year and moving from one of the league’s most prolific offenses to a Rex Ryan-led one in a difficult division doesn’t bode very well for him. However, I always tend to treat the top running backs as though ups and downs are expected. A poor season doesn’t mean they are “the worst,” and a great season doesn’t mean they are “the best.” McCoy wasn’t comfortable with taking the four or five straight-ahead yards that were asked of him in Philadelphia and now he goes to a team that will allow him to be creative and do what he does best. He will still produce.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
March: 44, August: 35 (+9)
‘Baby Gronk’ shook up the tight end landscape last year with his TE6 breakout season and has been a steady riser since the start of last year. But what is his ceiling? What can he be? Is there any chance he challenges Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham as a top tier tight end? If he can’t, then this valuation may be too high. There was only a 23 point difference between in points between the sixth and twelfth ranked tight ends last year and I wouldn’t want to invest so highly in one who may end up in this group.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
March: 24, August: 36 (-12)
This stinks. I’m sure many owners and drafters (like me) were starting to look at Benjamin as a worthy pick as he dropped to the end of the third round. Unfortunately, we won’t have a chance to see him in action in his sophomore year. This certainly creates a buy-low window for his believers, assuming he can regain full health.
Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
March: 51, August: 38 (+13)
Beast Mode will churn out yards and touchdowns every time he sets foot on the field. But how long can he sustain it? The arrival of Graham may take some pressure off him, but it may also lead to fewer opportunities in the red zone. Anyone that read last year’s series will recall that Lynch was actually a faller with the threat of a Christine Michael Hall of Fame-type season on the cards (for what it’s worth, I only thought Michael would have an MVP-type year, not Hall of Fame). Now Lynch is back on the rise and Michael is in Dallas. He is another solid investment for immediate production.
Carlos Hyde, RB SF
March: 31, August: 47 (-16)
Hyde is one of my firm favorites. I loved the kid coming out of Ohio State, and think he would have been a year-one starter in most offenses that didn’t have Frank Gore in the backfield ahead of him. Unfortunately, his time to shine has come when the team is experiencing some turmoil, but it only creates more value for Hyde fans like me. I believe he is a long-time NFL starter, and now is the time to acquire him. Of course, he has a lot to prove.
Davante Adams, WR GB
March: 35, August: 49 (-14)
We could scratch Adams as a faller the moment Jordy Nelson’s injury struck. I can’t wait to see him being given his opportunity. He was a touchdown machine at Fresno State with 38 touchdowns in two years (yes, thirty-eight!) and I have no doubt Aaron Rodgers will look his way early and often this season. It may be too late to acquire Adams, but if there are any doubters looking to offload him before the season kicks off, I’d like to take him off their hands.
Mark Ingram, RB NO
March: 67, August: 52 (+15)
Ingram’s rise is a very logical one – the Saints seem intent on getting their ground game going. However, I just don’t buy the idea of a complete offensive transformation. Drew Brees is still one of the best in the game and they added a pass-catching specialist in C.J Spiller. I also have a problem with both Ingram and Spiller experiencing drastic rises – will the team be able to house two top-tier fantasy running backs? The answer is probably yes (they have done it before with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles), but I would prefer to take the (slightly) cheaper option here.
Jeremy Maclin, WR KC
March: 37, August: 55 (-18)
Maclin filled the ‘Eagles fantasy WR1’ role perfectly, but heads to a Chiefs offense that couldn’t muster touchdowns for its receivers last year. However, it was Andy Reid who drafted the former Missouri man in 2009, and as evidenced in the preseason, he will be excited to find ways to get the ball in his hands. I wouldn’t expect to see the same numbers as last year, but Maclin is still a solid pick at the end of the round five.
What to Take Away
We won’t know for some time whether or not these rises and falls were ‘worth it’ or not, but studying how players got to their current value is a great test of how you feel about them. Have they earned it? Have you fallen into a trap? Make sure you are comparing what you expect of a player to what you have to pay to acquire him. The top 50 will change again drastically soon enough and we want to be holding the players that are moving up, not down.
I will focus on the bigger shakers in the rest of the series, as the most extreme rises and falls happened outside the top 50 (Joseph Randle, I am talking about you). Next up: the rookie class.
Note: Massive props to Ryan McDowell, who consistently runs the mocks from which this data is collected.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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