32 Teams, 32 Questions: The AFC West
The AFC West is about as eclectic as a division can be – from the Black Hole of Oakland and their decades of struggle, to the high time mountains of Denver where Peyton Manning has given the region hope that has a diminutive shelf life. The Broncos came ever so close to bringing home the glory only two seasons ago, but were instead the punch line while the world was watching. Let’s take a look at some burning questions for the hodgepodge group known as the AFC West.
San Diego Chargers
Can we finally get excited about the future of tight end Ladarius Green?
How many seasons have now been the season for Green to break out? 14? 15? For dynasty owners bewildered by his potential it seems like an eternity. Entering his fourth season, Green has all the makings of a stud tight end in an offense that has enjoyed targeting their large pass catchers.
Last off-season, Green (who was born in Berlin, Germany) was expected to play a crucial role in the Chargers offense with Antonio Gates aging. As the season progressed, however, it was Gates who continued to be the starter, gathering over twice as many snaps on offense as Green (787 – 296). What may surprise some is Green rated exceptionally higher than Gates for overall tight end performance (19 – 46) according to ProFootballFocus.
Just for fun, taking a look at Combine/Pro Day performances (Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce skipped the Combine due to injury), Green fits in with some mighty performers. Now I’m not saying Green is the next Jimmy Graham, but it does give us some perspective in regards to how measurables affect, or lead to, certain performances.
Coming out of college, the scouting community praised Green’s quickness and catch radius. The now trivial downside was that he was raw and going to take time to develop. Entering his fourth season, he’s had the opportunity to work under one of the most consistent tight ends in the game and grow a relationship with a quarterback who loves his tight ends (nailed it).
Keep in mind that while assigned the position of tight end, Green is more of a hybrid. He’s slender for tight end standards and uses his athleticism to gain advantage on jump-balls, muscle his way through smaller defenders and his acceleration allows him space to work downfield.
Gates enters 2014 with a four game suspension that will force the Chargers’ hand. Up for grabs are 129 tight end targets and over 20 red zone looks a season. While San Diego has often been dismissed as the underperforming talent that just can’t put things together, they have a sneakily potent offense with the addition of Melvin Gordon, a healthy Danny Woodhead and a competent trio of receivers in Keenan Allen, Malcom Floyd and Jacoby Jones.
There’s not much new here, other than the fact we’ll see Green as the starting tight end for the Chargers by default, without any politics played by management. While the early season match-ups for Green aren’t necessarily green light specials (Detroit, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Cleveland), they’re not shut-down situations either. Unless Green is completely overwhelmed in his first four weeks, we’re likely to see him maintain a much larger role in the Chargers offense going forward.
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Denver Broncos
Who is the new Julius Thomas in Denver and is CJ Anderson trustworthy?
Julius Thomas left Denver this off-season with a hefty contract from the Jaguars and also left Peyton Manning wondering, firstly, where his cut of Thomas’ new contract was, and secondly, who will be the tight end of choice in new Head Coach Gary Kubiak’s system. In addition to an overnight bag, Kubiak brought with him the extra unsexy, yet reliably consistent, tight end Owen Daniels to help fill the vacancy that was created when Thomas left.
Also contending for Manning’s affection is fifth-year veteran Virgil Green, who is highly regarded as an in-line blocker, but has failed to threaten as a receiving option with only 23 receptions in his professional career. While not known as a pass-catcher, his overall tight end ranking on ProFootballFocus is ahead of Julius Thomas and well ahead of Daniels on overall score (which includes both blocking and receiving ability).
What’s amusing when looking back to Green’s scouting profile is that he was respected as a talented receiver, but left concerns when it came to blocking. Ranked as last season’s 11th best tight end on PFF (largely due to pass blocking and a fourth overall run blocking score), Green reeled in 72 receptions for over 900 yards and 11 touchdowns collegiately. So, what happened when he entered the pros?
Green joined the Broncos during the Tim Tebow era, was backlogged the next season when Manning brought buddy Jacob Tamme along for the ride and management leaned towards Thomas when they needed a young up-and-comer. Bad timing.
As for the system that Denver seems inclined to run this year, Green is a better fit for the run first, play-action approach that is desired. While I am thrilled with Green’s potential and match in this offense, ultimately I’ll be avoiding this situation because, regardless of skill set, Green may again be forced out by the veteran talent in Daniels and the coaching connection with Kubiak.
Moving on to C.J. Anderson, let’s get this out of the way right now – I own zero Anderson shares and plan to own that same number by the start of the season. I understand the system and the threat Manning creates for defenses. I can do the math and project some comfortable RB1 numbers for Anderson. My concern is I am reluctant to place my confidence in a third-string athlete who stumbled into a starting role with very little performance sample size to justify it. I think we can comfortably say Anderson’s success is situational. Regardless of situation or not, something is off for me with him. I may be wrong; I kind of hope I am because Mr. Anderson seems like a really great guy. Let’s just say I have seen this too many times and am probably more risk adverse than some. Let me try to justify my position.
Anderson has a total of 384 total rushing attempts in both collegiate and professional play. As a frame reference, DeMarco Murray had 392 last year alone. So either he has a lot of tread on the tires or he has no business behind the line as a starting back. Additionally, he has missed several games in the last two years due to a concussion and knee injury and has also been held out of several practices this preseason for an ankle and shoulder injury.
Again, the thing-o-meter is pointing in the right direction and I have no qualms with managers owning him, as he should produce in Denver. The lack of experience, the “whoops, I’m the starter” vibe, and the seeming ease of injury, however, have me steering clear. Give me Justin Forsett nearly two rounds later, but I am one guy (probably the only guy) who won’t be riding the Anderson train this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
Can Alex Smith become more than a game manager and make Jeremy Maclin relevant?
Offensively, the Kansas City Chiefs have to be excited about 2015. With an elite running back in Jamaal Charles and a developing star in tight end Travis Kelce, Alex Smith has two very tremendous safety valves. The Chiefs did themselves a favor by letting perennial underachiever Dwayne Bowe, walk this off-season and upgraded the wideout position with Jeremy Maclin.
Missing all of 2013 with his second right knee ACL surgery, Maclin flourished in the Chip Kelly offense and had a defining year by a wide margin. Working mostly on the outside, the big question is how much of his potential can translate into the Kansas City system with Smith at the helm.
The conversation surrounding Alex Smith is he can’t (or won’t) make the deep pass. I personally am the exact opposite of an Alex Smith fan. That being said, the numbers are encouraging. While Smith is no Tom Brady or Andrew Luck, he has gotten the job done with rather limp receivers.
In Smith’s 464 pass attempts last season, only 24 of them were for 20 yards or more. While Smith made his money on passes up the middle of the field that were nine yards or less, he was an equal opportunity passer on the outside up to 19 yards and graded out quite favorably on those passes.
Last season in Philly, 75% of Maclin’s yardage and over 90% of his receptions came on passes under 20 yards. While half of his touchdowns were tallied over 20 yards, the numbers are still encouraging and pay dirt is hard to predict. If we look back even one year prior, Smith threw twice as many passes over 20 yards as he did in 2014, equating to over 10% of his throws.
So, are Alex Smith’s numbers a product of the scheme, his ability, or the surrounding talent? Probably a little of all three, but I’m encouraged about Maclin’s future in Kansas City as a low WR2/high WR3.
Oakland Raiders
Will the Raiders have some offensive energy with the young talent they’ve added?
I’m just going to get this out of the way – there seems to be two camps out there – those who are excited about Derek Carr’s future and those who drink bleach. All kidding aside, I’m a member of the first camp and that camp makes up about two percent of the fantasy community. I’ve seen the stats, I know the argument, but something about the film makes me really like Carr. He’s gritty, athletic and moderately handsome. He, like the quarterback in Kansas City, had very little to work with last season in regard to competitive talent on the roster. But with some solid moves and developing players, I’m excited to see what 2015 brings for Oakland.
The big story and moderate segue here is that things will be easier for Carr if Oakland can move the ball on the ground. Not many late season bloomers were as intriguing to watch as Latavius Murray. Registering two inches over six feet, Murray is a large man. His four carry, 112 yard performance in week 11 was a sight to behold. Following that, however, his performance returned to the mean, but he still managed a respectable 4.34 ypc after we throw that game out.
While the offensive line in Oakland is projected to finish in the bottom third of the league for rush blocking, they have made off-season upgrades and Murray displayed just enough wiggle last season to make enthusiasts excited for his potential. Behind him there is little-to-no competition, so his job is secure so long he stays healthy. Health has not been a concern thus far in his collegiate or professional career, but that is likely somewhat due to his limited usage.
For the receiving corps, the Raiders made a splash during the draft in taking top-tier wide receiver Amari Cooper with the fourth overall pick. On paper, this appears to be the selection that will end their curse of drafting wideouts that have an affinity for mediocrity. Early camp reports seem to confirm this and while it should be taken lightly, preseason action has been positive. While Cooper displays neither roaring speed or big receiver height, his athleticism, route running and soft hands should allow him to excel at the professional level.
In addition to drafting Cooper, the Raiders took a flyer on wide receiver Michael Crabtree to further bolster their offense. A highly touted prospect in his own right in 2009, Crabtree has only crossed the century mark in yardage once in his career. Perhaps a new environment and renewed sense of his career arc will invigorate him in Oakland.
Finally, with two young and sufficient tight ends in Mychal Rivera and Clive Walford, the Raiders have a shot of optimism in a region that hasn’t had much to look forward to lately outside of hot gluing new spikes on their game day ensembles. While contention in the AFC West is likely at least a few years out, the Raiders may be on their way to shaking off the remains of the Al Davis era and bringing new light to the Black Hole.
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- Dynasty Capsule: San Francisco 49ers - February 9, 2016
- Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars - January 21, 2016
- Backfield Emotion - September 5, 2015
