Draft Strategy: The Professor, the Chameleon and the Spider

Ryan Finley Posted On August 27, 2015

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I can see it from here. You’ve broken into a flop sweat and it’s not because of the hellishly humid 90 degree August day. It’s also not entirely because we’re mere weeks away from the first real games of 2015 (hopefully you don’t call glorified preseason scrimmages games – and don’t even mention the Hall of Fame game, which is like the preseason to the preseason – we’re talking Inception-level removal from a real NFL game). How many overzealous owners overdrafted Andre Williams last year due to his “stunning” Hall of Fame “Game” performance? You now sit and wonder if Ameer Abdullah will be this year’s Williams because you blew your draft last year and you’re afraid you’ll do it again. You followed up the aforementioned overdraft of Williams with mistakes and reactionary reaches. But this year will be different.

There isn’t any one secret to a good draft strategy. You can’t pick one lane or follow one piece of advice en route to hoisting a fantasy football trophy in the office next year. Successful drafting is kind of like baking a cake. You need a few ingredients in the right proportion to make your team rise. But it isn’t flour and eggs we’re looking for, we need to blend three draft personalities to come up with a winning formula: The Professor, the Chameleon and the Spider.

The Professor

Before your draft, you first have to go to school. And by school, I don’t mean buying the most recent fantasy football rag on your way to the draft. If you want championship results, you have to put forth a better effort than that. To truly embrace The Professor and prepare for your draft, you need a few things:

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Know more than the marquee free agent moves. Everyone knows about DeMarco Murray in Philly, but did you know the Titans gave a three-year deal to Harry Douglas this off-season? That Titans receiving crew certainly has room for a vet like Douglas to produce. The Rams also gave a two-year incentive laden deal to Kenny Britt and the Rams have a new quarterback behind center in Nick Foles. Look beyond the Ndamukong Suh-level signings to the also-rans finding new homes.
Watch for developments outside the skill positions themselves. Football is a team sport, perhaps more than any other, and improvements in places like the offensive line can have a big impact. While the Saints traded away all-world tight end Jimmy Graham, they did receive all-pro center Max Unger in return, as well as that first round pick. They also used one of their two first round picks on offensive tackle Andrus Peat. We might see a stronger running game in the Big Easy this year.
Keep abreast of the coaching changes. Again, not just who the new head coaches are, but who the new coordinators are. Sure, we all know Jim Harbaugh is out in San Francisco, Gary Kubiak is now in Denver and John Fox traded the blue and orange of the Broncos for the blue and orange of the Bears. Offensive whiz-kid Marc Trestman (whiz-old-man doesn’t have the same ring) is now leading the Ravens offense and Baltimore features a beefed up receiving corps and still has the strong-armed (but overpaid) Joe Flacco at the helm. Know your coordinators.
Lastly, if you’re looking to get ready for a rookie draft in a dynasty league, you need to watch at least a little tape. The miracles of the modern internet have made it easy for you to see real game tape of just about any prospect. Even YouTube searches will get you there. Many guys know Tevin Coleman runs really, really fast but few know that he also falls down if you breathe on him wrong, but you do. Smarty pants.

The Chameleon

Ok, schools out.

You know Greg Jennings is now a Dolphin and you saw Atlanta is now installing the Kyle Shanahan offense. Good for you. So, how does that translate into your draft strategy? Well, the bad news is I can’t tell you for sure. But that’s the essence of persona #2. You have to react to the draft as it shakes out, and that means putting the shake-and-bake on your own draft strategy if necessary. Don’t enter the draft with a single purpose, but rather be ready to bend like a reed in the wind.

I hear you. You can’t imagine doing anything but the cool quarterback and tight end streaming strategy you heard of recently. Or maybe you had great success with a zero running back strategy last year but didn’t quite seal the deal. You know you can make that work this time. But what if your draft starts and everyone is drafting young wide receivers like you’d been planning all along? Are you going to scrape up John Brown just because he’s the only player who lines up with your initial strategic focus?

No – it’s time to pivot. If you’re picking eighth and the first seven picks are wide receivers, take Rob Gronkowski or Le’Veon Bell and be happy with the value. Throw out any plans you had and start reacting. While everyone else is busy scooping up wide receivers, take two of the top five running backs. If all the young players you were targeting go too soon, don’t be afraid to take the high-value veterans like Anquan Boldin later. Since you already studied up, you know he had 130 targets last season, 83 catches and over 1,000 yards, right?

In the end, just be ready to move against the draft current. Zag when everyone else is zigging and you’ll likely end up with some great value.

The Spider

The last persona you need to blend in is all about secrecy. You know those YouTube videos where people found big, nasty spiders hiding under the rim in the toilet? Ok, maybe the toilet analogy isn’t great, but spiders excel at hiding in dark corners, waiting to strike. In your draft, make sure you do the same – think like that Spider and find your secret corner.

The thing is, you’ve prepared well this time and you know it. You’re in the draft room with your buddies and you want to impress them with your newfound encyclopedic knowledge of off-season moves, game tape and free agent fits. Don’t waste that work now. Spiders don’t announce their presence – they lay in wait and pounce. Don’t make the mistake of giving away your draft strategy during the draft.

You can talk, but for crying out loud don’t talk football. Unless, of course, you’re talking to the guy drafting just ahead of you and know the perfect way to manipulate him into picking someone other than your guy. Then talk away. Otherwise, just keep quiet about what your plans are and concentrate on executing them instead. I’ve seen many owners give away a great piece of info during a draft and then get miffed when someone else used it to their advantage. Don’t be left holding that bag.

Draft Time

A successful draft isn’t about magic or parlor tricks. Sure, some guys can skate by and draft a successful team on good instincts sprinkled with a little random luck, but most of us can’t. Even among the players we love to watch, few of them squeak by based solely on talent. Andrew Luck doesn’t carve up defenses because of his last name – he does it because he studies like The Professor. Odell Beckham Jr didn’t make that miracle catch on faith; he practiced making difficult catches, and adjusted to the situation like The Chameleon. Malcolm Butler didn’t intercept that pass in the Super Bowl by announcing he was going to do it, he studied tape, he adjusted, and he struck like The Spider at the perfect time.

Be prepared to embrace all three personas during the course of your draft. You have to be smarter than everyone else, you have to be willing to roll with the draft’s punches, and you have to strike at the right time, from the shadows. It’s draft time baby, now go out and BE Malcolm Butler.

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