Dynasty Debate: Nelson Agholor vs. Allen Robinson

Today’s Dynasty Debate features two of the better young receivers in the NFL – Allen Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Nelson Agholor of the Philadelphia Eagles.

Opening Statements

Allen Robinson

With the 61^st overall draft pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars traded up to draft a position that was already addressed earlier in the draft with Marqise Lee. Modeling his game after Calvin Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Stevie Johnson and Reggie Wayne, Robinson has earned some poor man’s Demaryius Thomas comparisons to his play as well as physical comparisons to Dez Bryant. Robinson’s rookie season had its up and downs, but he had 48 receptions for 548 yards and two touchdowns in only ten games. Extrapolating his ten game pace out to an entire 16 game season, he was on pace for 77 receptions and 877 yards before his injury. Now healthy, Robinson is looking prime for a breakout season in 2015 with the Jaguars.

Nelson Agholor

With the 20^th pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles chose Nelson Agholor as their replacement for the departed Jeremy Maclin (Kansas City Chiefs). Chip Kelly talked about drafting Agholor. “He was kind of what our model is. He was the best player who was available for us that fit our system and so we were excited that he was there.” This truly looks like a great fit for Philadelphia and Agholor as well. He brings speed to the offense that just wasn’t there in the past few seasons and his height and body type screams slot receiver as he stands 6 feet and weighs 198 pounds. Mike Mayock says it best, “Agholor is a precise route runner. He has added value as a great returner. He reminds you of Jeremy Maclin, the guy he’s replacing. Agholor can play anywhere, outside and in the slot. The Philadelphia Eagles are going to love him.”

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The Case for Allen Robinson

In a historically good wide receiver class, Robinson held his own to be a top rookie among them last year. An extremely athletic receiver, he ran a 4.48 40 yard dash at his pro day and didn’t disappoint with his explosive drills as well. His broad jump of 127’’ last year was one of the highest at the combine and drew many comparisons to Dez Bryant.

Not only is he an amazing athlete, he was without a doubt the best wide receiver on the Jaguars last year. He was the only receiver on the Jaguars last year who had a drop rate of under 10% at 2.04%. His 2.04% drop rate was also the lowest amongst rookie wide receivers, even lower than the uber elite Odell Beckham Jr. Furthermore, he was the most efficient per route last year on the Jaguars with 1.64 yards per route run while other Jags lagged behind with Allen Hurns (1.31), Marqise Lee (1.28) and Cecil Shorts (1.17). However, being good on the Jaguars honestly is not good enough for most dynasty owners. Among rookies, his yards per route run was even higher than Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks and Davante Adams.

The Jaguars offense looks to be trending up with the addition of Julius Thomas and rookie running back T.J. Yeldon. These additions should actually benefit Robinson and open up the field for him. Robinson had a 23% market share targets last year and should really see it go up this year as the Jags want to feature him as their top receiver. Through his first ten games (before his injury) he was the WR26 – a borderline WR2 as a rookie. A productive rookie going on his sophomore season should be a target for everyone as he could be a league winner for years to come.

The Case for Nelson Agholor

Agholor is the type of athlete who played nearly every position in high school. Scouts could find him at running back, wide receiver and safety. His athleticism didn’t stop there. Playing in one of the toughest conferences in college football (Pac-12) Agholor was the statistical leader for USC in both receptions and yards. He also was a third-team All-American and first-team All-Pac-12. One of his biggest attributes is his instincts. For instance, coming back to the pass and use his solid hands. He is great at tracking the ball and can run the route tree with fluidity – this has been evident at Eagles camp.

Byron Maxwell took eye on the rookie “You can see a difference even from last week,” the veteran defensive back said. “He’s even starting to make a play on the ball on comebacks.” Maxwell went on to say “He’s got a burst. He’s good with his hands. You’re not going to be able to jam him off the line. He’s fast. If he gets a step on you, it’s over.”

Chip Kelly also talked about what he saw in Agholor in camp “He’s got an extra gear that a lot of guys don’t have. When he beats press coverage and takes off, you’ve got to make sure you understand how fast he is. We have underthrown him a couple times, just because we know how well he can accelerate. He does a great job of catching the ball and getting north and south and getting up the field.”

Agholor fits in an offense that finished in the top ten in almost every statistical category. They ranked fifth in total offense 396.8 yards, sixth in passing with 272.2 yards a game, and third in points with 29.6 a game. Expect these numbers to jump up with Agholor because he is the speed Jeremy Maclin never was.

The Case Against Robinson

Allen Robinson is talented, but stuck in Jacksonville Jaguars purgatory. He has second year quarterback Blake Bortles who clearly struggled making plays happen. Their passing game finished 31^st, mustering a weekly average of 187.6 yards per game. Bortles looked promising out the gate as he completed 65% of his passes in his first four games. Unfortunately, in the last ten games, defenses began to grow aware of his tendencies and he dropped to a 55% completion rate. He also threw more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (11).

The Jags also have a struggling offensive line that finished dead last in protecting their signal caller, allowing 71 sacks. This alone puts not only Bortles behind the eight ball, but Robinson as well. What’s worse is the Jaguars only put 15.6 points a game on the board, which put them last in point production in the NFL.

I believe Allen Robinson has good attributes. Unfortunately, by missing the last six games due to his broken foot, it prevented him from growing chemistry with Blake Bortles. Playing in a bad offense is already putting a cap on Robinson’s numbers, but when you couple that with a need to re-develop his relationship with Bortles, he may be lucky to even put up competitive numbers in comparison to Agholor.

The Case Against Agholor

When facing a choice between Agholor and Robinson, Agholor is simply a rookie who has proved nothing in the NFL. He was extremely productive at USC, but take a look at each of some other USC receivers and their peak seasons in college:

Taking a look at just his raw production numbers, Agholor can’t be said to be much better than Robert Woods and Marqise Lee’s peak season was historically good. All the wide receivers were productive, but Agholor had the lowest market share yards among his alumnus. It is concerning that although Woods and Lee were just as productive (if not more) than Agholor, they have yet to make much of an impact in the NFL. When faced with a difficult decision between Robinson and Agholor, the pros outweigh the cons for Robinson and taking Agholor who has yet to play a single down in the NFL is simply too risky.

Who would you want more on your dynasty team? Let us know in the comments below.

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