32 Teams, 32 Questions: The NFC South

Ryan Finley

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With preseason action underway, we get to see all 32 teams doing something at least relatively meaningful. It also means there are only a few weeks left until the rosters and depth charts are set for the start of the season. We are going to take a little trip around the league, take a look at all 32 teams and address one of the biggest questions about each team you need to be thinking about. After all, in terms of dynasty leagues, if you aren’t thinking about these things you’re already behind!

Today, we’re taking a look at the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

Who will be the primary running back in new Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme?

The Atlanta Falcons had an ugly season in 2014. And I don’t mean the green chip at the bottom of the bag ugly. I mean Sylvester Stallone at the end of Rocky II yelling “Yo Adrian, I did it” ugly. In what was Mike Smith’s seventh and final season as head coach, the Falcons managed only a 6-10 record in the exceedingly weak NFC South. Perhaps the worst part of all is that they remained in contention until week 17, when they were finally eliminated by the slightly less abysmal Carolina Panthers.

The Falcons started the offseason right by landing Dan Quinn, one of the hottest commodities in the off-season coaching carousel and they also managed to snag a great, young offensive coordinator in Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan has a great reputation as a sterling offensive mind and brings a lot of optimism to the Falcons offensive outlook. He also brings an outside zone blocking scheme, which some believe will be a better fit for the athletes on the Falcons offensive line.

So, who’s carrying the ball?

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Devonta Freeman was a fourth round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. He played three seasons of college football for Florida State and capped off his collegiate career with a victory in the 2014 BCS Championship game, alongside other current pros Kelvin Benjamin and Jameis Winston. One of the problems many see with Freeman is he never really dominated in college. He had those three reasonably productive seasons and played for a championship team, but he never quite flashed like some future pros tend to do. His measurables are on the low side as well. He’s neither especially fast, nor especially big. He does have a good deal of experience in a zone blocking scheme from his time in Florida State, which could help him in the new offense. He does also have year of seasoning in the league.

Tevin Coleman was picked in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft out of Indiana. In many ways, Coleman is the polar opposite of Freeman. He’s bigger and faster, by a fair margin. He also flashed quite a bit in college, where he often dominated the competition and carried a “mostly bad otherwise” Indiana offense. He has the kind of tape you watch and need to wipe drool off your keyboard afterwards, featuring big, explosive touchdown runs. However, if you watch that tape closely you won’t find much evidence of good vision, which is important in a zone blocking scheme. He also has very little experience in that type of scheme, and is a rookie to boot. Finally, the long runs Coleman built his collegiate career on will be difficult to reproduce against NFL defenses.

Even though Freeman and Coleman are considered the frontrunners (see what I did there?) there’s a reasonable chance neither player gets the job. Both have missed significant time in the preseason with injuries. The Atlanta backfield could still be run by a dark horse like Antone Smith or even Terron Ward.

Carolina Panthers

What will happen to the Panthers offense with the loss of Kelvin Benjamin?

Oh boy.

This section started off quite differently in the early stages. Is Jonathan Stewart finally what we always hoped for? Can Kelvin Benjamin have another productive year, or was 2014 a fluke? But then an ACL injury landed on Kelvin Benjamin. Questions about his ability to repeat his 2014 performance turned into questions about whether his injury was a minor setback or season ending. It turned out to be the latter, so now we have to ask what this offense will do without Kelvin Benjamin. Let’s try to get a little perspective on how good his rookie stats were:

Receptions Targets Yards TDs
73 146 1,008 9

Granted, there were a few other rookies who did as well or better, but you could argue none were as important to their team’s success as Benjamin. 146 targets is a massive number, especially for a rookie who many called “raw.” If you want to read a little more about his injury and its circumstances, read this piece from DLF’s own James Simpson.

So, what do they do?

In an interesting turn, a draft pick that was much maligned now looks as if it was prescient. Many criticized the pick of Devin Funchess in the recent draft due to his similarities to Benjamin – another really big receiver who can win jump balls seemed like overkill at the time. Now that one of the twin towers went down, that draft pick looks a lot smarter. Carolina will have to rely on their highly paid signal caller Cam Newton to run the passing offense through Funchess and other targets like Philly Brown, Jerrico Cothery and tight end Greg Olsen. They also have to hope that the Jonathan Stewart renaissance continues, or perhaps even kicks into high gear. Many people have been waiting for Stewart to be what they’ve long thought he could be, perhaps 2015 is his chance to really shine.

Somebody has to step up, or the Panthers could see their dismal 2014 record of 7-8-1 sink even further. And though they won the division with that mark last season, the chances of such a lowly record claiming the NFC South title again have to be fairly low.

New Orleans Saints

Will second year receiver Brandin Cooks become the focal point of the offense or could the Saints transition to a more run-oriented attack?

The 2009 New Orleans Saints championship season is a fading memory. While they have continued to be competitive (for the most part), making the playoffs in three of the five seasons since then, they have failed to reach the rarified air of the 2009 season. It seems this past off-season was the time for changes in New Orleans.

In one of the most shocking moves of the off-season, the Saints traded star tight end Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks in return for center Max Unger and pick #31 in the draft (the Saints used that pick on inside linebacker Stephone Anthony, who is already in line to start according to camp reports.) With Graham gone, what next?

One possibility is second year receiver Brandin Cooks absorbs a good deal of the vacated Graham targets and starts a superstar evolution. Before injuries derailed his 2014 season, he was on pace for 85 catches, after all. If you extrapolate that to 2015 (assuming he can stay healthy) and add in a dose of additional targets, Cooks could be looking at 90+ catches this season, perhaps as many as 100 if all the pieces fall into place.

On the other hand, could some of the Saints’ off-season moves indicate a shift towards the run game? They did trade their top receiving target for a Pro Bowl center in Unger. They also gave a healthy contract extension to running back Mark Ingram (a guy in the same “huge talent that hasn’t really come to fruition” club as the aforementioned Jonathan Stewart,) as well as signed the speedy CJ Spiller (who, come to mention it, could ALSO be in that Ingram/Stewart club.) These are only hints that the team could start relying on the run a bit more, but look at this quote from head coach Sean Payton (courtesy of ESPN.com):

“I know for certain this wasn’t about going in a different direction philosophically,” Payton said. “This was, ‘Hey, I think we will move the football in 2015, but let’s find a way that we don’t have to score 35 points to win the game.'” That sounds like a coach that would like to control the clock a bit more with a solid rushing attack. Maybe it’s a little bit of both – a little more of the rushing attack, and some more targets for Cooks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Can Doug Martin regain his rookie-year form, or is this the final act for a once promising back?

Before we dig too deep into his current situation, it’s important to take a look back at how good Doug Martin was as a rookie back in 2012.

Rushing Yards Receptions Receiving Yards Total TDs
1,454 49 472 12

Wow. What a rookie year. This isn’t quite an Odell Beckham Jr level of historic production, but it’s in the same ballpark. It’s no wonder he became one of the most sought after dynasty assets after that season. Since then, however, Martin has three total touchdowns. That’s right, three. Injuries robbed Martin of much of 2013 and a good chunk of 2014, but even when on the field the production just wasn’t there.

But not all of the rushing issues can be placed at the feet of Martin. Tampa Bay has trotted out one of the worst offensive lines year after year. Tampa Bay spent a good deal of money last season in an attempt to bolster that group, but the money spent didn’t bring much in the way of improvement. With the first overall pick going to Winston this year, they also couldn’t spend a lot of 2015 draft capital on the line. They did utilize two second round picks on the group, but the outlook is still cloudy. And to top it all off Demar Dotson (one of the better performers last year) went down with an injury in the first preseason game. The injury isn’t thought to be season-ending however, and he could return after six weeks or so. Still, the outlook is not rosy for this group.

Another fly in the Doug Martin ointment is the presence of Charles Sims. Many expected Sims to potentially challenge for the starting role late last season, and some of that optimism continued into this spring. But that optimism hasn’t morphed into production or a spot atop the depth chart.

Martin came into camp leaner and in better overall shape than in years past. He has also been one of the standout performers throughout, and all signs point to him maintaining his starting role. So the stage is set for Martin in 2015. Will he be reborn as 2012 Doug Martin, or is this the end of the road?

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