32 Teams, 32 Questions: The AFC East

Jacob Feldman

tyrod_taylor

For well over a decade now, the AFC East has been the domain of the New England Patriots. Bill Belichick arrived in 2000 and Tom Brady took over during the 2001 season. Since then, they have put together 14 straight seasons with a winning record, 12 playoff appearances, six Super Bowl appearances and four Lombardi Trophies. No other team has dominated their division quite like this for so long. With Brady aging and likely suspended, is the reign coming to an end for the Patriots? Let’s examine some of the key questions for each of the four teams in the division from a fantasy perspective.

Buffalo Bills
“What can the offense do without a quarterback?”

For years, Buffalo has been one of those teams where fantasy production rarely seems to occur. There are, of course, other black holes when it comes to fantasy, but Buffalo is definitely near the top of the list. In recent years, there have been some glimmer of hope for the offense in Buffalo. CJ Spiller was probably the start of the hope a few years ago, though I don’t think he ever lived up to the hype which surrounded him. There have, of course, been others over the last few years as well, but when Fred Jackson is probably the most productive fantasy player over the last few years, it says something.

The big reason for these issues might be the fact the Bills have been searching for a franchise quarterback since Jim Kelly left in 1996. In the last seven seasons, the Bills have started eight different quarterbacks with another new quarterback likely to take the reins this seasons. A few years back, the Bills spent a first round pick on EJ Manuel, but the recent camp talk suggest he isn’t even in the running to be the week one starter this year. When your 2013 first round pick is being vastly outperformed by Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor, it isn’t a good sign for your organization. Simply put, the Bills don’t have a quarterback for the 2015 season, so the question is how will that impact everyone else?

On paper, things look promising for the Bills outside of the quarterback position. They traded for LeSean McCoy, signed recent breakout player Charles Clay in free agency, and brought in Percy Harvin to join the young duo of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. With the exception of Woods, all those players have at least been in the discussion as a top 12 player at their position at some point in their career, if not significantly higher. If you put this group of skill position guys with an above average quarterback, you’re probably looking at a top ten offense in terms of fantasy points. Unfortunately, they will have one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, regardless of who wins the job. Overall, I think the fantasy ceiling is higher if Taylor wins the job, but the difference between the two is pretty small.

I think the safest player to count on from this group is McCoy. With Rex Ryan and Greg Roman in town, you know the Bills are going to run the ball. They are going to commit time and bodies to make it happen. Assuming McCoy stays healthy, he should see 300+ carries this year as well as quite a few checkdowns from whichever quarterback stumbles onto the field. As far as the pass catchers go, even bad teams typically have solid production from their top receiver. I’m expecting Watkins to show a slight improvement over his rookie year, probably to the tune of 75 receptions for 1,100 yards and 5-8 touchdowns for the season, but the lack of a quarterback will keep him in the WR2 range and make him a little inconsistent. After Watkins, I expect Clay to be the second target. The Bills paid a lot of money for him, so I think they are going to use him. Plus, below average quarterbacks often look underneath for running backs and tight ends (just ask any Chiefs fan about 2014). Clay should be right around his 2013 numbers of 69 catches for 759 yards and six touchdowns, making him a solid but not special TE1.

As for Woods and Harvin, I don’t see any kind of consistent production coming from them unless there is an injury. Woods is an average talent and Harvin isn’t a real receiver. Worse yet, the trio of Watkins, Clay, and McCoy will likely account for 2,000-2,500 receiving yards. I expect Buffalo to be near the bottom of the league in this stat. For reference, the Rex Ryan Jets of 2014 had a league worst 3,206 passing yards. That doesn’t leave much for anyone outside of the trio. Get what you can for either of them, because it is going to be a few years before the Bills can sort out this mess.

Miami Dolphins
“Can Ryan Tannehill turn into the quarterback the Dolphins and fantasy fans desperately want him to become?”

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If you’ve been following our rankings and ADP, you’ve seen Ryan Tannehill make an appearance in the top seven on both fronts. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Tom Brady all 35 or older and the Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning group all 33 or older – this means dynasty owners are searching for those under 30 quarterbacks who can be great for 5-10 years. Personally, I think people might be reaching a little too far at times on those young quarterbacks. For example, Teddy Bridgewater was the sixth quarterback in our August ADP. That’s a bit too much for me, but back to the topic at hand.

As most of you know, Tannehill is a converted receiver who struggled his rookie year. As a second year starter, the Dolphins had him throw it almost 600 times and he fell just short of 4,000 yards with 24 touchdowns and 17 picks. Last year was about the same with just under 600 attempts but just over 4,000 yards this time to go with an improved 27 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions. Thanks in part to an added 311 yards rushing, Tannehill was likely just inside the top 10 quarterbacks in your league last year. The question is if he can improve on those totals to become a true QB1 or if the last two years are about what we can expect from him as more of a borderline QB1/QB2.

The case against Tannehill largely stems around two things. One, he takes a lot of sacks. In fact, his 104 sacks over the last two seasons are easily the most for any quarterback. An inability to get the ball out when faced with pressure is never a good thing. Plus, high sack totals often lead to injury and quarterbacks “hearing footsteps.” The second major issue is his yards per attempt. In 2014 he had a career best 6.86 yards per attempt. The bad part is his career best put him as the 28th quarterback in the NFL last year behind players like Austin Davis, Alex Smith and Geno Smith. His struggles with the deep ball are well documented and his production was largely a result of a high volume passing attack.

The case in favor is based on the progression he has made over the years. He only played one full year at the position in college, so this will be just his fifth year under center. Each year in the NFL he has improved his completion rate and touchdowns while significantly decreasing his interception rate in 2014. His supporters believe he is still growing and will continue to improve until he becomes a perennial threat for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns. The Dolphins have definitely done everything they can to support Tannehill. After trading for Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings they signed Jordan Cameron in free agency and spent a first round pick on Devante Parker. This is in addition to keeping 2014 favorite Jarvis Landry.

This year is going to be the definitive year for Tannehill. He has the weapons and he’s had the time to develop. If he is every going to be a 4,500 yard passer or a 32+ touchdown player, we are going to see it in 2015. Personally, I think he’s a little closer to what he has done the last two years than the numbers I just mentioned. He isn’t an elite talent and his reliance on the volume of passing isn’t a good sign. His 639 dropbacks were one of the most in the league, and his completion rate was fifth in the NFL. The only way to increase his production is to push the ball downfield more and that just isn’t his game. I think we are looking at someone who will likely be 4,000-4,250 yards and 25-30 touchdowns a year, putting him as a backend QB1. Definitely solid, but not quite the superstar some are hoping he will become.

New England Patriots
“Can Rob Gronkowski stay healthy for a full 16 games?”

The easy way out for the Patriots would be to talk about Brady’s suspension and what is going to happen to the team during those games. However, analysis of what the Patriots will be like over those first few weeks is all over the place. If you haven’t seen it, here is the short version. The passing game will be bad and the Patriots will run the ball a lot. It’s time to move on to what should be the even bigger question on the minds in terms of fantasy and the Patriots. That is, of course, if Gronk can stay healthy for the entire season.

With Jimmy Graham in Seattle and Julius Thomas in Jacksonville, there is little argument about who is the top tight end in fantasy leagues. In fact, the gap between Gronk and the rest is large enough that a lot of people are talking about him as a first round pick in startups. While I don’t advocate such a move, there is some sound logic to that line of thinking. Part of it is I just don’t really like Gronk. I find the persona he portrays to be extremely sophomoric and everything else I dislike about the “dumb jock” stereotype. The larger part about it is he really scares me from an injury standpoint. So much so I actually view him as the same risk as a first round running back. With his history and the way he plays the game, it is a question of when not if the next injury comes.

People tend to forget this, but Gronk was easily a first round talent prior to the NFL Draft. However, several teams actually crossed him off their draft boards altogether due to a major back issue and the surgery required to correct it. Some teams believed he would never play football again. I’m sure they are kicking themselves for that opinion now, but it was a pretty big deal at the time. Not only is the issue somewhat chronic, increasing the chance of other back issues like the one he had in 2013, but one side effect is an increased likelihood of hamstring injuries like the one which limited him two years ago. Sprinkle in an ACL tear and the forearm which has been broken at least twice if not three times (depending on who you believe) in addition to the infection which resulted and there are a lot of red flags. The good news is this is the first offseason since the one following his rookie year where he isn’t rehabbing something.

On the flip side, when he is healthy or mostly healthy, he is an absolute beast. He was on a snap count early in the 2014 season as a result of the ACL injury the prior year and sat out a meaningless week 17 match to ensure he was healthy for the playoffs. Otherwise, he played a full season and managed 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns. Numbers like that are approaching elite receiver status, not just elite tight end status. His only other full season (he was a part-time player as a rookie) was his second year in the league in 2011 and those numbers are even better. He has almost a touchdown per game over his career to go along with averaging roughly five catches for 75-80 yards. There is no denying the value he brings.

Overall, it is a high risk, high reward proposition. For my money, I definitely prefer to go with one of the elite receivers in the first round to negate some of the risk associated with Gronk, but if you feel the positional advantage is worth the risk it is your call. I think the likelihood of him missing time with another injury is pretty high though given his history. Long term, I expect the back to continue to be an issue as well. The Patriots will go as far as Gronk can carry them, but if I’m a fantasy owner, I’m trying to cash out while he carries first round startup value.

New York Jets
“Who is going to emerge in the backfield?”

Ah, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets… yet another once proud franchise who has struggled as of late. They have been unable to top .500 over the last four seasons and it is looking very much like this season will make it five in a row. Rex Ryan is out and first time head coach Todd Bowles, who is another defensive coach, is going to try and turn the team around. Unfortunately for Bowles, most of the Jets’ issues are on the offensive side of the ball. Those issues have only grown recently when Geno Smith got knocked out for being a special type of donkey, resulting in a broken jaw and possibly the end of his opportunity to be a starter. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick will do well enough with Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall to start for most of the season. The bigger question in my mind is who will emerge out of the backfield to lead the rushing attack?

The incumbent is, of course, Chris Ivory. 2014 was Ivory’s fifth year in the league and his first one where he played in all sixteen games. He has struggled to stay on the field during his career. One thing which seemed to help was limiting his workload. Ivory had 182 carries in 2013 and 198 in 2014, his two seasons with the Jets. His workload is also managed during each game as he only went over 14 carries four times in 2014. What might be even worse for his fantasy prospects is his very limited use in the passing game. His 18 receptions last year beat his previous season high by 16 receptions.

Second on the current pecking order is Bilal Powell. Powell has had his chances over the years, but he never seems to take full advantage of that opportunity. He is being billed as the top passing specialist on the team, but that might not be saying much given the rest of the depth chart. He did have a decent year in 2013 as a pass catcher, but he has otherwise been fairly limited in that regard catching only 17 passes in 2012 and just 11 last season. In his defense, he was playing behind Chris Johnson in 2014, so that might explain some of it.

The other rushers on the team are a pair of new arrivals in Zac Stacy and Stevan Ridley. Stacy is exactly what we last saw when he was with the Rams. He is a very average talent as a rusher with very limited ability to make defenders miss. The real threat in this group is Ridley. He’s coming off an ACL/MCL tear which occurred in the middle of last season, but he is the only rusher on the team with the talent to push Ivory from the early down role. Ultimately, I see Ridley as a very similar player to Ivory, making them largely interchangeable.

In the end, I think the answer to my original question is no one. The Jets will be a rather ugly committee with either Ivory or Ridley as the early down rusher and Powell as the pass catcher. If Ivory keeps the starting role, he’ll get 10-14 carries a game with Powell or Ridley picking up the rest. Anyone starting Ivory in a fantasy league will be counting on a touchdown to save the day. With very few receptions and a limited workload, there will be a lot of games where he only gets 50-70 total yards. Unfortunately for the Jets, no one else on their roster can do much better. It is a situation to avoid.

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jacob feldman