Instant Analysis: Jordy Nelson tears his ACL

Nathan Powell

nelson


During the Packers’ second preseason game against the Steelers on Sunday, 30-year old wide receiver Jordy Nelson reportedly suffered a torn ACL (at least that’s what the initial diagnosis is as we wait for the official MRI results) and is likely to miss the entire 2015 season. Heading toward the back half of his career, Nelson was already a “sell” for many youth-centric dynasty owners. Now, any sort of window to sell the veteran wide receiver is likely closed. For August ADP, Nelson was drafted at WR15. I expect his post-injury market value to settle in around the WR28-32 range, slightly higher than Brandon Marshall who is now the same age Jordy will be when he will likely return in 2016.

Nelson is signed with the Packers through the 2018 year as well. Coming back to being a top ten wide receiver after tearing an ACL at 30 years old will be a challenge, but I expect Nelson to come back in 2016 and have at least a couple more years of quality fantasy production. The big question is which one of the Packers wide receivers will be the main beneficiary of the Jordy injury, if it does indeed turn out to be a torn left ACL?

Let’s take a look.

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Aaron Rodgers

It’s hard to argue the prospect of losing Jordy Nelson won’t have some type of adverse impact on Rodgers. However, don’t overreact here. Rodgers is one of the few truly elite quarterbacks on the planet. Other players will step up, but he is still clearly in the top tier of quarterbacks, regardless of any league format.

Randall Cobb

Cobb was a top ten re-draft and dynasty receiver even before the Nelson injury and I expect more of the same post-injury as well. If anything, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers may lean on Cobb a little more, but I expect his production to be relatively the same.

Davante Adams

Adams has been one of the more hotly debated players in fantasy football, especially since the re-signing of the aforementioned Randall Cobb. Adams was selected with the 53rd pick in the NFL draft in 2014 and he caught 38 passes for 446 and three touchdowns during his rookie campaign last year. Draft capital and some semblance of proven production makes Adams the primary candidate to be the benefactor of the Nelson injury. However, that doesn’t mean he will be picking up all 151 targets Nelson had in 2014. In dynasty, Adams was drafted at WR27 in August. I expect his market value to increase, but I feel he was already part of a pretty crowded tier, so anything more than a bump up of a few spots is more of an overreaction, in my opinion.

Jeff Janis

Metrics darling Jeff Janis has been a Twitter favorite since the day he was drafted. At 6’3″, 219 lbs., Janis, a seventh round pick out of Saginaw State, is the closest thing to Nelson from a physical profile perspective the Packers have on the roster. He played sparingly in his rookie year due to being toward the bottom of the depth chart as he recorded just two catches for 16 yards during his rookie year. Preseason statistics don’t mean much, but he caught two passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns last preseason and he also caught two passes for 31 yards and a touchdown last week. He had three catches for 25 yards after Jordy Nelson left with the injury today as well. Janis was drafted at WR85 in August mocks – this injury does give him an opportunity to show what he can do in the regular season, so that gives him a bump in value, but if Janis struggles or just isn’t used as much as some are hoping, his value could very easily dip back down to WR85 or even lower.

Ty Montgomery

Rookie Ty Montgomery is a project at wide receiver with this being only his third year playing the position, so while I like Montgomery at his price (and the fact the Packers used a third round pick on him says they likely have more plans for him than just a special teams player), I don’t think the Jordy Nelson injury has much impact on him or his WR95 ADP in August. He’s certainly a player to keep an eye on, though.

Richard Rodgers

One of the main arguments against Rodgers (despite him being the TE1 on one of the NFL’s best offenses) is there were “too many mouths to feed” in the Packers’ offense. Well, there could be one fewer mouth to feed and I think this does result in Rodgers getting his fair share of red zone targets in 2015. While those touchdowns will likely be difficult to predict, he could be valuable late in drafts, especially in best ball formats.

Free Agent To Be Named Later

One of the things that seems to be overlooked in situations like this is teams don’t just have to live with what they have – they have the option to make trades or sign a veteran free agent. The wide receiver free agent market is pretty barren during week two of the preseason, headlined by the names of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Robert Meachem, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers brought in a veteran between now and the end of the preseason to take some of the pressure off the young wide receivers competing for that WR2 role in the offense.

In conclusion, I think the injury to Jordy Nelson (and again, we’re waiting on the MRI to verify it is indeed a torn left ACL) results in a WR2 by committee for the Packers led by Adams, but I’ll be pretty surprised if the Packers enter the regular season with only Randall Cobb and a depth chart filled with rookies and second year wide receivers. I obviously like Adams and his talent, but I think penciling him in for 120+ targets and 1,000+ yards in sophomore campaign is a bit premature. Jeff Janis fans get exactly what they have been waiting for (a chance), but I think the chances of him having any sort of consistent fantasy relevancy is slim. Ty Montgomery is more Randall Cobb insurance/return specialist than anything related to the Jordy Nelson injury in 2015 as well.

One thing is certain – we’re about ready to start the season and stop losing elite players to camp and preseason injuries.

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