32 Teams, 32 Questions: The NFC West
Editor’s Note: This article is written by a new writer to DLF, Bruce Matson. We welcome Bruce to the team and look forward to more of his work as we move into the season.
The preseason is in full swing and we finally get to see what all 32 teams look like on the field. There are a lot of storylines that unfold during this period of time, so we’re going to capture them by taking a look at all 32 teams and answering one question for each of them. Being able to critically think through certain team scenarios is a must in order to optimize your ability to forecast the future for the players you own on your dynasty teams. We start our journey around the NFL with the NFC West.
The NFC West supported two playoff teams last season while proving they are still one of the toughest divisions in the league. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals made it to the playoffs and, as we all know, the Seahawks again made it to the Super Bowl, but lost to the New England Patriots 28-24. There are some major questions about each team in the division we must ask ourselves before we begin the 2015 season.
Seattle Seahawks
How will the addition of Jimmy Graham affect the offense?
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During the off-season, the Saints traded Jimmy Graham and a fourth round pick to the Seahawks for a first round pick (#31 overall) and center Max Unger. This trade was one of the biggest moves of the off-season and changed Seattle’s offense drastically. Graham is one of the most prolific players to ever play tight end in the NFL and now he will be playing for a franchise known for playing strong defense and running the football heavily. Will there be enough volume in the passing game to justify drafting Graham?
Graham is going from Drew Brees, who had 659 attempts last year, to Russell Wilson, who attempted just 452 passes – this is a difference of 12 pass attempts per game between the two quarterbacks. It’s safe to say Graham is going to receive fewer targets compared to what we are used to seeing him get. Even with less of an opportunity for targets, he is still going to hold a lot of fantasy value this season. He is Wilson’s best receiving option in the red zone and I wouldn’t be surprised if he scored double digit touchdowns this season.
Let’s take a closer look at Seattle’s pass catchers from last season:
As you can see, Doug Baldwin led the team with 98 targets last season. Some of those targets are going to be easily distributed to Graham. Not one receiver on the team had more than five receiving touchdowns as well. Marshawn Lynch actually led the team with four receiving touchdowns. Graham’s ability to create space around the end zone will give Wilson more opportunities to complete touchdown passes.
Chris Matthews, who is 6-5, is the only wide receiver on the team who has the height to compete for jump balls in the end zone. That said, Graham isn’t going to have much competition when it comes to red-zone targets.
Russell Wilson passed for 20 touchdowns last season and had a 63.1% completion percentage. With Jimmy Graham’s presence, Wilson should increase his touchdown total as well as his completion percentage. Graham is a mismatch for linebackers and safeties – this will make it easier on Wilson when completing passes over the middle of the defense and give him a security blanket when pass protection breaks down.
Marshawn Lynch is going to benefit from having Graham on the team as well. Defenses are going to have to consider Graham’s seam stretching abilities when game planning against the Seahawks. Linebackers won’t be able to key on run as much anymore, which will give Lynch bigger lanes to run through and more time to make decisions before he makes his cuts.
Graham is going to help the offense dramatically this year. From the run game to the pass game, his addition is going to help Seattle’s offense move the chains, and be a nightmare for defensive coordinators to game plan against.
St. Louis Rams
Can Nick Foles carry his wide receivers to fantasy relevancy this season?
This off-season, the Philadelphia Eagles traded away Nick Foles, a 2015 fourth round pick and a 2016 second round pick to the Rams in exchange for Sam Bradford and a 2015 fifth round pick.
Foles has had many ups and downs during his last three seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles. He has passed for 6,753 yards and 46 touchdowns during his tenure in Philadelphia. He also has a cannon for an arm, which will help open up the intermediate to deep passing game of the offense.
Sam Bradford’s season for the Rams ended before it began last year due to a torn ACL and he was replaced by quarterbacks Austin Davis and Shaun Hill – those two combined for 3,695 yards and 20 touchdowns. Many are expecting an improvement in the passing game due to the addition of Foles. Having a quarterback who is getting most of the reps in training camp going into the season is going to help with the continuity of the passing game.
Foles is a gunslinger and not afraid to step up in the pocket and make throws downfield, which Kenny Britt and Brian Quick should both benefit from. I look for the passing numbers to slightly increase, while the offense should run more efficiently as a unit.
Head Coach Jeff Fisher wants to emphasize the run game. The Rams selected Todd Gurley #10 overall during the draft after they spent a top 100 draft pick on running back Tre Mason in 2014. Historically, Jeff Fisher’s offenses has ranked in the top-16 in rushing yardage in 15 of the 20 seasons he’s been a Head Coach. On the contrary, Fisher has only had ten seasons where his teams have ranked in the top-16 in passing yardage.
While I believe Foles will elevate the passing game, I don’t think it will not be enough to carry multiple receivers to fantasy relevancy. If I had to pick one wide receiver out of the offense to own, it would be Quick – he was on pace for 857 receiving yards and six touchdowns until he dislocated his shoulder during week eight against the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s not that Foles doesn’t have the ability to help generate high-level fantasy output for his receivers – the play calling is not going to institute the passing volume to provide enough workload to make multiple wide receivers fantasy relevant.  The coaching staff wants to play strong defense and control clock by running the ball, though. I would consider Foles as a decent backup quarterback this season, but I wouldn’t expect high end QB2 level production.
Arizona Cardinals
Will John Brown Take a Step Forward And Become a Reliable WR2 in Fantasy Leagues?
When Michael Floyd suffered an injury where he dislocated three of his fingers that went through the palm of his hand, the fantasy football community got a little bit anxious of what opportunities John Brown would obtain. Floyd should be back to playing during the first few weeks of the season, but Brown should experience an increase role until Floyd is back to full health.
As a rookie last season, Brown flashed a lot of promise, catching 48 passes for 696 yards and five touchdowns. He ranked second on the team in targets with 102 as well. He even ranked seventh among rookie wide receivers last season in receiving yards and tenth among rookie wide receivers in receptions.
We should see an increase in Brown’s productivity if Carson Palmer can finish the season without getting injured. Last season, Brown averaged 9.78 fantasy points per game with Carson Palmer at quarterback compared to averaging 6.43 fantasy points per game with the likes of Ryan Lindley and Drew Stanton.
Head Coach Bruce Arians has a history of hyper focusing around the slot receiver and making them one of the key emphases of the offense. Arians likes to have a small jitter bug type of wide receiver to play the slot. Remember, he had T.Y. Hilton as a focal point on Indianapolis’ offense. John Brown is very similar to Hilton and Arians would presumably love to utilize Brown in a similar role. The Cardinals seem to want to get Brown the ball and we should expect to see him to continue to get a large portion of the targets this season.
Expect Brown to develop his game compared to last year. He was only a rookie last season, and like most, he had a lot of room for growth. As he gets more comfortable playing at the NFL level, he is going to be more effective in the offense. He had a very good rookie season and will only improve going forward.
While there is a lot to get excited about, Brown also has to compete for targets with Larry Fitzgerald and Floyd. Both wide receivers are very talented and command a lot of targets in the passing game. With the size and ball skills of both Floyd and Fitzgerald, Brown’s red zone opportunities are going to be limited.
It’s hard to say if Brown will finish the season as a WR2, because there’s variables that could stifle his production, like an injury to Carson Palmer. He is capable of being a top-24 wide receiver this year and has the athleticism and target potential to make it happen, though. I think it is more realistic for him to finish the year as a mid-range WR3. He currently has an ADP of 80.67, which is good to be the WR41. I think it’s very possible Brown can surpass expectations and finish the season ranked in the 25-30 range among wide receivers.
San Francisco 49ers
Will Carlos Hyde take the reins as the feature back for the San Francisco 49ers?
During the off-season, the 49ers allowed Frank Gore to take his talents to Indianapolis. They also signed Reggie Bush in free agency. Carlos Hyde now hopes to fill the void at running back created by Gore’s departure.
Hyde appears to be the lead dog at running back in an offense that ranked ninth in the league in rushing attempts. The 49ers selected him in the second round of last year’s NFL Draft and they are going to try and get the most out of their investment.
He does have some competition for touches within the offense. Reggie Bush, Mike Davis and possibly Kendall Hunter are all predators when it comes to cutting into Hyde’s workload. Even the unheralded Jarryd Hayne is making some noise in the preseason. With what the team has invested in Hyde, they are going to give him every opportunity possible to be the lead back.
Gore rushed for 1,106 yards and four touchdowns last season, so could we expect similar production if Hyde takes the feature back role? That would be a safe assumption to make, but roster transitions from the off-season put a wrench into everyone’s Carlos Hyde plans. The 49ers experienced a lot of roster turnover during the off-season with most of the key players leaving on the defense.
The roster turn over on the defense could be critical for Hyde’s fantasy value. The defense lost five key players – Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and Chris Borland. Things could go downhill in a hurry if San Francisco can’t figure out how to fill the gaps on defense.  In that case, the offense will be playing from behind because the defense isn’t pulling their weight. The run game will suffer because the offense will be playing from behind. Playing from behind causes an emphasis in the passing game and due to game flow in a lot of their games the 49ers won’t be running the ball as much as they have in the last few seasons.
The good thing about Hyde is he’s a three-down back who’s good at catching the ball out of the backfield. While, he will have to compete for targets on passing downs with Reggie Bush (who was brought in during the offseason solely as a passing down specialist), Hyde has the ability to be the main back on passing downs and if he can prove he can play efficiently, he will be the main back gobbling up the receptions.
Hyde has the capability of taking the reins to become the feature back for the 49ers. It’s up to him whether he’s going to be the lead back on the offense. He’s the best running back on the team and if he plays to his ability he should be getting the majority of the touches.
There’s some skepticism over his fantasy value due to how impactful the offense will be as a whole. If Hyde plays to his ability they will have a hard time taking him off the field, which means he should get a lot of opportunities on passing downs. Hyde should be looked at as a RB2 with RB1 upside this season.
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