Player Lifetime Value: The Results

George Kritikos

luck

In case you missed part one, be sure to check it out before proceeding. It covers the basics of looking at player lifetime value. Here, we will pose some key questions where we can come up with answers based on the aforementioned measurement. Before we do, let’s define a term that is thrown around quite frequently in dynasty:

Value – The worth of an asset that determines its health and well-being in the long run.

This is just one definition, but one apt for this thought experiment. We are creating one form of worth that will be focused on explaining the long-term health and well-being of a player. With that in mind, time to jump in.

Who are the most valuable players at each position?

Let’s start at the quarterback position and compare the rankings based on the two discount rates.

lifetimeqbs

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Looking at our more aggressive discount rate (60%), we see quarterbacks squarely in their prime at the top the list. The lower half has a few young quarterbacks and a couple of established veterans on the tail end of their prime. Meanwhile, using a conservative discount rate (20%) has a youth-centric feel as players like Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota crack the top ten. Also of note is the major shift Aaron Rodgers sees as he goes from a top three quarterback to clinging onto the top ten.

Switching over to the running back position, discount rate becomes more important given the shorter career arc and higher probability that their career production (or just their career) falls off a cliff suddenly. Let’s take a look at the rankings using our aggressive and conservative discount rates.

lifetimerbs

The top three stay largely the same with LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley and Eddie Lacy holding those spots down. Gurley was a surprise in the aggressive analysis as 4for4 does not have him projected to play a full 16 games in 2015, which is more impactful in this scenario. It just shows how transcendent a talent Gurley is as he projects to be the top running back for several years in the NFL. While several older players make the top 10 for an aggressive discount rate, the next three were LeSean McCoy (569), Marshawn Lynch (562), and DeMarco Murray (560). Interestingly, these are players who have question marks around new environments (McCoy and Murray) or outright retirement (Lynch).

With wide receiver, we see some consistency with the top two, but a drastic set of changes after that. In our aggressive scenario, Demaryius Thomas is the third most valuable receiver but is not in the top 10 (comes in at 12) for the conservative discount rate. Amari Cooper is the opposite as he is third for the conservative view but outside the top 10 (14) in the more aggressive approach.

lifetimewrs

How do you value players who begin their careers without a significant role?

For this exercise, let’s use the conservative approach (20%) since an owner is investing with the long-term in mind. An example who has been both popular and divisive is Phillip Dorsett. In the best case scenario, owners see him as the eventual replacement for T.Y. Hilton. That has led to some interesting rankings, even from our own DLF team. Looking at the wide receiver rankings, a particular receiver comparison is Dorsett and Martavis Bryant. Three of the seven DLF rankers at wide receiver prefer Dorsett over Bryant.

Looking at the results for Bryant, he profiles as a player who could flirt with a WR1 season (260 fantasy point range) but will likely serve as a boom or bust WR2. The early success and situation has him at a 1333 lifetime value, top 20 WR value. Meanwhile, Dorsett’s expectation to be largely a spectator in his rookie season hurts his lifetime value (1210) even though a TY Hilton future would bring about multiple WR1 seasons (280 point range).

While that higher ceiling for Dorsett is nice, there is a price to pay for an asset sitting early in their career. One way to think about this is trading a player like Dorsett for a more immediate contributor. Another way to look at it is optimizing your lifetime value at the roster spot by having a contributor in 2015 and trading for a player like Dorsett or Cody Latimer one year closer to when they are expected to expand their offensive role.

How should we think about older players vs younger players?

For me, the worst argument for preferring a player over another is the statement “he’s younger.” It is a statement that rings through as both optimistic and hollow. Paying for the potential without understanding its value is simply playing the lottery without looking at the jackpot amount. Instead, it is helpful to understand how many seasons a player’s lifetime value is worth to avoid overestimating the impact of age.

When looking at the more aggressive approach, even the players with the most lifetime value hold about three years of peak production. That really limits the impact of age as rookies with immense upside will hold little to no more value as a player in his fourth season experiencing his best years already.

Meanwhile, in the more conservative approach, that number rises to about five seasons of high level production. The window is much larger, which opens up projections for greater influence, but also shows some limitations to the age argument. Players like Antonio Brown still occupy elite territory despite already having multiple seasons in the league. Even in this scenario, age is not always the trump card when determining player value.

A few closing thoughts…

I would like to justify this article by summarizing what I hope we have learned:

  • This is a thought exercise in understanding player value and age are related but that is just one part of the process
  • Understanding your intentions of contending will adjust the discount rate and impact player value, but everyone is still worth something
  • Taking a player who is likely to sit (or have a limited role) impacts their career value significantly, making an early investment with the intention to hold them a major risk

Ultimately, I just hope everyone takes away the idea that defining player value is extremely difficult. While many look at the trade market as a way to value individuals, your players have to score points to win you championships. Using both methods will lead to a better outcome than trying to rely on just one.

[/am4show]