Instant Analysis: Kelvin Benjamin tears his ACL
There’s something terrifying about Twitter this time of year. While it is fun to hear about a training camp catch by your favorite sleeper or watch a vine of a lineman mauling his opponent, there is a lingering crossed-fingers feeling of “please just stay healthy.” Every time we refresh our feeds or log in to catch up on the news, we fear the dreaded “Player X is down on the field” update. Today, we had one of those moments, as Panthers sophomore Kelvin Benjamin injured his left knee in a joint practice with the Miami Dolphins.
In the morning, we heard from Head Coach Ron Rivera that the injury was a sprain and Benjamin was headed for an MRI scan. Unfortunately, we have now received confirmation of an ACL tear, via NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. As it is such a common injury in this game, our Dynasty Doctor Scott Peak has previously written an extensive piece on what exactly the ACL is and how it is repaired and rehabilitated which is a must-read. Dan Meylor also knows from experience how devastating this injury can be.
Without their top weapon, things will change for the stock of the Panthers dynasty assets in the short and long term. Who does this affect and how will it affect them?
Kelvin Benjamin, WR (August ADP: 24)
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Benjamin came in to the league as a raw, big-bodied receiver who struggled with drops. In his rookie campaign, he proved to be exactly that, but showed those negatives don’t matter when you get a ton of targets and have the ability to go up and win a jump-ball. He was the sixth-most targeted receiver in the NFL with 146 balls thrown his way, and was a lock to hog those targets again in the upcoming season. As Eric Olinger pointed out in his look at three of the top first year players in 2014, Benjamin certainly looked to be primed to build on his impressive rookie year. This is awful news for the young man and his immediate stock takes a huge hit, but his long-term future will depend on his recovery (the Dynasty Doc will help you out on that).
Cam Newton, QB (August ADP: 58)
Right now, I fear for him.
Panthers WR depth behind Benjamin: Funchess, Philly Brown, Cotchery, Ginn, Boykin… no bueno, Cam.
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) August 19, 2015
Benjamin caught ten touchdowns from Newton last year (including two in the playoffs – on the road, in Seattle) and was well on his way to becoming Cam’s ‘go-to guy.’ 2014 was the quarterback’s least productive year as a passer (yards, passer rating and touchdowns), rusher (attempts, yards and touchdowns), and fantasy scorer (total points and points per game) and he now loses his top target. While I can certainly buy into the idea he might remain a good fantasy quarterback, I don’t think he is worth drafting or acquiring at his current price of QB4, when there are many others who can provide you with similar QB1/QB2 numbers. The arrow is pointing down for Cam.
Greg Olsen, TE (August ADP: 75)
Olsen and Benjamin both had exactly the same number of receiving yards last year (1,008), which put the 30 year old in second place for tight ends behind only the great Rob Gronkowski and he will have a chance to repeat in 2015. He has finished as a top seven tight end in each of the last three seasons and it shouldn’t change with Benjamin being out. In fact, he might be the player who receives the most significant bump in fantasy value here. He caught six touchdowns in the regular season last year compared to Benjamin’s nine, but that number may go up as he becomes the top red zone target.
Jonathan Stewart, RB (August ADP: 84)
The age-old duo of Stewart and DeAngelo Williams was finally broken up this off-season as Williams headed to Pittsburgh, leaving J-Stew as the lone candidate for the majority of the touches. Despite this change, his ADP rank is exactly the same now as it was back in March. The two had shared the load since 2008, but after a promising first two years, neither had topped 1,000 yards rushing since 2009. And despite not playing a full 16-game season since 2011, he showed signs of being back up to speed last year. Luke Wetta described Stewart as a great candidate to perform in 2015 and I don’t think that changes with Benjamin missing time. However, he has burned us many times before, so I can see why drafters do not trust him. The Panthers will need to establish the running game, and will want to feed the back who heads into his eighth year.
Devin Funchess, WR (August ADP: 88) The question to ask ourselves now with Funchess becomes: is he ready to go?
If Funchess isn’t a day 1 starter (which I doubt) then Carolina’s WR corps is right back to nightmare status without Kelvin Benjamin.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 19, 2015
NFL.com’s Matt Harmon does not believe so, and our own writers offer mixed reviews on the second round pick from Michigan. When the Dynasty Scouts took on Funchess in their ‘Triple Take’ in January, the conclusions were eerily similar to that of an evaluation of Benjamin: “big body”, “lapses in concentration,” “boom or bust.” Rob Leath compared the two even further in his Rookie Player Profile, but argued that Funchess’ production at such a young age in college plus his cheap price tag in rookie drafts made him a very appealing target. I expect that price tag to go up significantly, and he could be the receiver to own in Carolina.
Philly Brown, Ted Ginn, Jerricho Cotchery, Brenton Bersin and Jarrett Boykin, WRs (August ADP: All undrafted)
Will there be a major beneficiary in this group? I wouldn’t bank on it. Cotchery was third in receptions and yards last year (48-580), but only caught one touchdown. That number may increase. Perhaps one of the others jumps up by a few hundred yards, but it won’t be enough to make a difference in your dynasty teams. Do not overreact too much on these players.
We conclude with a section by our Dynasty Doctor:
Unfortunately for Kelvin Benjamin, reports are he sustained a torn ACL. It doesn’t surprise me, in reviewing video of his injury. Benjamin’s left knee planted and appeared to twist in a motion that creates tension on an ACL and puts it at risk for injury. We saw a similar mechanism of injury with Kenny Britt and Reggie Wayne, both non-contact injuries. In fact, the majority of ACL tears are non-contact in origin. Todd Gurley’s injury is another example. For more details, check out the link that James referenced above with my article on ACL injuries. There are athletes who have a tendency to land with a valgus position and that puts stress on an ACL, potentially tearing it. Rehabilitation often includes retraining an athlete to reduce frequency of valgus landings for this reason. Gurley, Britt and Wayne are all good examples of how a valgus landing can end with an ACL rupture.
At this point, it will be important to know whether this is only an ACL rupture, or if there is a coexistent MCL sprain and/or meniscus injury. The significance of having an additional MCL sprain and/or meniscus injury is potential to delay surgery a bit and prolong recovery. However, given this injury occurred early in training camp, with surgery and rehabilitation, Benjamin should be able to return in 2016. Unfortunately, it appears his season is over. Recovery from torn ACLs takes 6-9 months and that means Benjamin is likely headed for injured reserve, effectively ending his 2015 season. I don’t expect this injury to adversely impact his future performance, and I wouldn’t hesitate to acquire him at a discount now in dynasty formats.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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